Born2BKing
Veteran
How is Obama doing in Va though? If he wins Ohio it's a wrap I'm hearing regardless of VA and FL.
Regardless of what happens tonight, Obama will lose the election.
- Thread starter rastafarwrite81
- Start date
How is Obama doing in Va though? If he wins Ohio it's a wrap I'm hearing regardless of VA and FL.
MBwithadream
All Star
No, he'll win.
avon barksdale
i want my corners
Obezzy styling on these red fakkits
rastafarwrite81
Reppin fine wine and cigars!
we shall see.
Florida is definately Romney, I can't go a day without hearing or seeing a Romney ad or a pro Romney PAC ad blasting Obama.
Virginia is leaning Mittens way as i type and Ohio is trending towards Mitt.
I see the writing on the wall, and i will begin to start positioning my clients to take advatage of a Mormon presidency.
Romney has Florida in the bag, and he also has a small advantage in VA (Nate Silver is giving Romney a 53% chance of winning it).
Ohio is still in Obama's favor (NS gives Obama a 70% chance of winning it).
Romney basically needs all three to win. If Obama keeps OH then he squeezes out a win even if he loses VA. There's a small chance Obama could win without OH, but it would be tough (he'd need CO, IA, NH, and NV which are all swing states). Romney would be unlikely to win without OH.
He will not win MI or OH.. even though Obama lost 10 points in both states. Above the radar mitt has the Ads and the support... under the radar (to my shock) the same groups and individuals are doing the get out and vote campaigns that won Obama the election the first time. I just didn't think any grassroots group still had Obama's back like they did in 2008 but they are out there. .
Mitt will barely win FL.
I'm gonna repeat this again because I see some nikkas on here still don't understand how this election works. If Obama wins Ohio, which he will barring some fukkery happening, he's not losing this election. You can forget about Virginia and Florida. Because all he needs is Ohio + another swing state out West, and that's it. If Romney doesn't get Ohio, he would have to win EVERY single swing state.
Now that I look at it, Obama wouldn't even have to win another state out West. If he gets Ohio and keeps New Hampshire, the election count would be 270-268 in his favor. Do you understand how fukked Romney is now?
Born2BKing
Veteran
So basically it's pretty much Obama's election correct? I highly doubt he loses a industrial blue collar state like Ohio.
Mike Otherz
All Star
breh, if obama wins the electoral vote but loses popular vote, would be funny at first, but i think there will be an assassination attempt on dude for real. see how mad those tea party types were when obama dominated last time, this would be too much for them.
Mike Otherz
All Star
i see obama winning all this four as things stand now.
Dusty Bake Activate
Fukk your corny debates
All you need to know is Nate Silver gives Obama a 67.6% chance of winning right now. Unless the word of god himself changes, there's no reason why anyone should believe any different.
filial_piety
Banned
Right now, electorally Obama has the advantage in how many combinations he can win the WH, but the key for Romney is that Obama has a marginal lead in Ohio by 1 point. I think it'll be a lot closer than people think. Afterall, these polls are simply estimates and Romney was deemed the underdog by much more just 3 months ago. The momentum albeit slowing, may give him the push that he needs.
I hope Romney does win though but currently they are tied at 47% in the popular vote which really doesn't mean anything other than showcasing who has a favorable approval of who.
I hope Romney does win though but currently they are tied at 47% in the popular vote which really doesn't mean anything other than showcasing who has a favorable approval of who.
Born2BKing
Veteran
Romney isn't going to win Ohio breh. Slim chance.
Dusty Bake Activate
Fukk your corny debates
The RCP average gives Obama a 2.2 lead in OH. The latest Quinnepiac poll has Obama up by 5. That is an outlier, but the past at least 5 polls there all show Obama in the lead.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama
Romney has probably reached his ceiling. Obama's electoral math looks solid. It's going to take major Obama fukk up to really shift things in the 11th hour.
filial_piety
Banned
Not to put the entire stock into Rasmusen, but his lead is maringally 1 point in Ohio according to them and depending where you fall on their formula of polling. Either way, as things are, the math and probability still favor Obama, but I wouldn't call anythiing "solid" given the transition of the polls between August and October. I don't think it would take a "major fuk up" (although that major fuk up just may be Libya) for him to lose his lead at this point nor do I agree that Romney has reached his "ceiling." If anything, it may be the otherway around given that I don't believe Obama ever received a "bump" from the last debate either. His last performance allegedly has "stopped the bleeding" so to speak. I'll admit that there is a bias in my observations because of who I support, but I wholeheartedly disagree that that this is "over" or a "bl-ow out" that many pundits and analysts predicted back in August. The storm has changed quite a bit since then.