Random NBA Observations 2019 - 2020
threattonature
Veteran
Are LeBron James' four NBA titles better than Michael Jordan's six?
By Kevin Pelton
ESPN.com
How does LeBron James' NBA Finals résumé compare to Michael Jordan's?
The MJ-LeBron debate centers heavily on their performances on the NBA's biggest stage. For Jordan partisans, the Chicago Bulls' 6-0 record in Finals series -- with MJ winning MVP each time -- is indisputable proof of his superiority. For James believers, his 10 Finals appearances are emblematic of LeBron's longer record of accomplishment.
Let's take a closer look at how both superstars have performed in the NBA Finals.
What do LeBron's and MJ's overall Finals track records tell us about the choice between them as the greatest of all time?
Championships added
In the past, I've compared Jordan and LeBron using my championships added metric, which attempts to quantify how much players did to help their teams win titles -- accounting for leaguewide quality of play and performance in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Who is the NBA's GOAT?
After the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA championship, the debate has been renewed on who is greater: LeBron James or Michael Jordan?
• Lowe: The GOAT debate is different now
• Are LBJ's four titles better than MJ's six?
• How LeBron tops MJ for GOAT status
• Rhoden: It's time to end the debate
• Jordan vs. LeBron in their own words
One of the shortcomings of the original method I developed was that it didn't account for performance in different playoff series. Basketball-Reference.com has calculated win shares, the individual statistic at the heart of the model, over only the course of entire playoff runs (not individual series). So looking strictly at the Finals requires a new metric.
To build on championships added, I decided to look at game-by-game performance using the game score developed by John Hollinger and available on Basketball-Reference.com. Specifically, I wanted to look at players' game score as a share of the total accumulated by both teams in the game, naturally accounting for changes in average game score as offense has fluctuated.
Let's take Game 5 of this year's Western Conference finals as an example. LeBron posted a 37.3 game score, good for 22% of the total across both teams. (This is, naturally, a massive number. James played 8.3% of the minutes by all players, so he was nearly three times as productive per minute as the average player in the game.) My research suggested that teams with a player so productive have typically won the game about 82% of the time.
Based on game-by-game scores, we can estimate the chances a team would win a series based on the productivity of an individual player. Anything above and beyond a 50-50 chance adds to the team's championship odds.
Comparing Jordan and LeBron in the Finals
With that explanation, let's look at how both GOAT contenders have performed in the NBA Finals, starting with Jordan.
Jordan Finals championships added
Finals Team% ChampAdd
1991 91.9% .42
1997 89.6% .40
1998 88.8% .39
1993 87.3% .37
1992 86.3% .36
1996 77.0% .27
Total 86.8% 2.21
As expected, Jordan's Finals track record is all but unimpeachable. In five of his six Finals -- all but 1996, when he shot just 41.5% in a six-game win over the Seattle SuperSonics -- Jordan played well enough that the Bulls were expected to win at least 86% of the time given average production by his Bulls teammates. In his first Finals appearance, 1991, Jordan played so well (averaging 31.2 points and 11.4 rebounds with 56% shooting and nearly as many steals as turnovers) Chicago was given better than a 90% chance of winning.
All told, this method shows Jordan adding more than two championships above expectation in his six Finals trips, meaning even average play from his teammates would have lifted the Bulls to at least five NBA titles in those six series. It's hard to get much better than that.
By contrast, James' Finals track record is a bit more mixed.
LeBron Finals championships added
Finals Team% ChampAdd
2015 90.2% .40
2016 88.0% .38
2020 83.5% .34
2018 82.4% .32
2012 82.3% .32
2013 81.9% .32
2017 81.8% .32
2014 80.0% .30
2011 62.6% .13
2007 61.1% .11
Total 79.4% 2.94
At the high end, LeBron's best performances -- in 2015 and 2016 with the Cleveland Cavaliers -- are comparable to Jordan's best Finals. That's despite the Cavaliers losing 4-2 in 2015 with All-Stars Kyrie Irving (who suffered a series-ending injury in Game 1) and Kevin Love (lost earlier in the playoffs) out of the lineup. Without them, James was responsible for 18% of the total game score in the series, which is why I argued he deserved MVP in a losing effort.
What stands out here is LeBron's worst Finals performance added little to his team's championship chances in both 2007 (when his 50-win Cleveland team was swept by the San Antonio Spurs) and 2011 (when LeBron's first Miami Heat team was upset 4-2 by the Dallas Mavericks). In those series, James performed only a little better than average.
As a result, LeBron's 10 Finals performances have given his teams about a 79% chance of winning according to this model -- not nearly as good as Jordan's average of 87%. However, those 10 appearances also have provided LeBron more overall opportunities to rack up championships added in the Finals than Jordan, giving James a higher total: almost three championships added (2.94).
How the 2020 Finals were atypical for LeBron
Some quick math suggests if James added nearly three championships in the Finals, that means his 10 Finals teams should actually have been expected to go 8-2 based on his performance rather than 4-6 -- an outcome that would change the GOAT conversation dramatically.
Understanding why LeBron's teams haven't been as successful in the Finals as his performance would indicate requires looking at the performance of his teammates. Let's consider the percentage of the total game score in each series produced by other players on his team.
Game Scores: LeBron's Teammates
Finals Team Teammate%
2011 Miami 40%
2007 Cleveland 37%
2012 Miami 37%
2020 L.A. Lakers 36%
2013 Miami 36%
2016 Cleveland 33%
2017 Cleveland 30%
2015 Cleveland 28%
2018 Cleveland 27%
2014 Miami 26%
This year's Finals series -- during which Anthony Davis gave James competition for Finals MVP and the Los Angeles Lakers' role players stepped up throughout -- was unlike many past series for LeBron. Particularly during his second stint with the Cavaliers, James found himself with too little help against historically great Golden State Warriors teams.
When LeBron's teammates produced at least 33% of the game score in the Finals, his teams have gone 4-2, including 4-0 since 2012. That's a level of support on which Jordan could count in Chicago.
Game Scores: Jordan's Teammates
Finals Team Teammate%
1996 Chicago 40%
1998 Chicago 38%
1991 Chicago 38%
1992 Chicago 37%
1997 Chicago 33%
1993 Chicago 33%
Jordan's teammates averaged 36% of the total game score in the series during his six Finals appearances, as compared to an average of 33% for LeBron.
The verdict
Ultimately, this analysis probably leaves us in a similar place to where I landed in 2018. If you're picking a team to win one game, Jordan's peak performance makes him the right choice.
But in another way, LeBron has already tipped the scales in his favor.
Four championships might not be greater than six, but appearing in 10 NBA Finals and counting -- and starring in eight of them so far -- adds weight to LeBron's side of the argument that MJ can't match.
Simply put: No player has done as much to help his team win at the highest level as LeBron James.
ReturnOfJudah
Veteran
The offense looks a whole lot better with everyone touching the ball, which is only naturally generating all those good looks, just like I said. Huerter, Jabari, Bembry, and Cam have all contributed in getting the ball moving. The moment that Trae starts pounding the ball, they lose all that fluidity and momentum.
The hawks need to move the ball more
Bruno Fernandez air balls a three and rifles a pass to Gucci man court side after a drive and dish from Trae on back to back possessions
What the fukk does that have do with anything considering both of those plays were off Trae dominating the ball? If they were sharing the ball instead, Fernando would be getting good looks at the rim, instead of spotting up. You obviously weren't paying attention in the first half with all the good looks they were getting by moving the ball.
Anything else you want me to address, groupie?
Trae shot 9-28 from the field, and the Hawks now have a 6-28 record.
bu-bu-but the Hawks offense is fine as is, just let Trae keep pounding the ball. It's working!
Outside of Collins, hawks starters are 3-20.
yet Trae holds the offense back according to @Gil Scott-Heroin dumb ass
Let me ask you a simple question:
Do you think the offense would generate more positive results having Trae pound the ball more than anyone else in the league, forcing his teammates to stand around and watch, or an offense where everyone is engaged by getting regular touches, and getting the ball to play to their strengths, and using Trae as an off-ball threat to create scoring opportunities?
Tell me what positive results on offense have the Hawks had this season with Trae dominating the ball?
He’s the fukkin point guard of course he has to dominate the ball
your argument would be valid if he wasn’t putting up any assist but he’s top 5 in assist along with points. He’s the best scorer on the team so of course he has to get his. Idk why this is hard for you to understand
Btw John Collins has 32+ points. Is he holding the offense back?
Being a PG doesn't mean you need to dominate the ball, and it especially doesn't mean one should be pounding the ball to the degree that Trae does.
None of the players on the team are going to get any better if he's allowed to monopolize the ball like this
The offense isn't going to generate greater results being this one-dimensional
Trae isn't going to break the bad habits he has if he's allowed to do whatever without consequence
The defensive attention Trae attracts playing off-the-ball is only going to create more scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.
If the other players are getting regular touches, and incorporated in the offense to maximize their strengths and develop their skillsets, it's not only going to make the offense more versatile and dangerous, but the confidence they get from that will fuel their defense.
All this shyt is Basketball 101, and it's painful that it needs to be continuously pointed out.
He gets assists because he has the ball in his hands more than any other player in the league. Individual assists don't mean a cotdamn thing if they're coming at a cost of the fluidity and functionality of the team's offense. The shyt you're posting is the oldest Casual box-score argument there is.
Naw according to experts on here Trae is selfish and needs to pass more so Huerter can create a TO or Bruno can fumble
I love being right.
Professor K.
rap game Paul Millsap
I love being right.
We were 4-1 with Trae doing what he does and have lost 3 in a row tryna switch up his game, goofy ass nikka.
We going through growing pains like every other team does. Keep that same energy come playoff time hoe
staticshock
Veteran
I love being right.
lets see
one guy is complaining because he wants more touches after turning down a contract the Hawks offered him this off season & wants a super max instead
The other guy was 4th in points last season, 2nd in assists, and has put up the same stats as well this season while running the offense
I wonder who the Hawks will side with
Playoff time.. The ATL hawksWe were 4-1 with Trae doing what he does and have lost 3 in a row tryna switch up his game, goofy ass nikka.
We going through growing pains like every other team does. Keep that same energy come playoff time hoe
You probably should've read the article first instead of embarrassing yourself in another thread. Collins isn't the only player who wants to see more ball-movement.lets see
one guy is complaining because he wants more touches after turning down a contract the Hawks offered him this off season & wants a super max instead
The other guy was 4th in points last season, 2nd in assists, and has put up the same stats as well this season while running the offense
I wonder who the Hawks will side with
Trae ball ain't it.
Professor K.
rap game Paul Millsap
Aka the team that has made the playoffs more than anybody besides the Spurs since 2008Playoff time.. The ATL hawks
I love being right.
Being right about what? Last year when I posted that it was true. This season it’s no excuse with guys being older and also vets brought in to take pressure off trae.. It’s more than ball movement or play too. Trae is a weird little clown. There was a moment vs the Hornets where Collins was trying to put his arm around him and talk but trae was being a little pouty bytch and shrugged him off. The coach and org needs to stop placating him. Yes he’s a franchise piece but he’s proved nothing so far to have these diva tendencies
Aka the team that has made the playoffs more than anybody besides the Spurs since 2008
Atl has lost most playoff series
Since 2008
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Professor K.
rap game Paul Millsap
You can't lose without getting there, which was the joke you tried to make in the first place
Atl has lost most playoff series
Since 2008
Somebody neg me for tryna reason with this troll ass b*stard
Dwight Howard
Superstar
lets see
one guy is complaining because he wants more touches after turning down a contract the Hawks offered him this off season & wants a super max instead
The other guy was 4th in points last season, 2nd in assists, and has put up the same stats as well this season while running the offense
I wonder who the Hawks will side with
Time to trade this nikka. Trae is the hawks future. Point blank. Get something of value if you can cause he clearly walking plus capella is a solid starter.
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