Random NBA Observations 2017 - 2018
- Thread starter Big Jo
- Start date
The War Report
NewNewYork
The Bulls got a core? 
ALonelyDad
Veteran
This team is absolute trash without Lonzo, I guess that is what happens when you dont have a decent backup. We are getting blown out by Grizzlies. Hope we can get some one when we trade Clarkson or Randle
Lakers ain’t shyt without Lonzo
Why put MJ on that list
VegetasHairline
Veteran
Low keyThe Bulls got a core?
The Bulls got a core?
Adidas about to EAT off of Lavine being in Chicago
Top seven sell-high players heading into the trade deadline
Which players should teams look to move before the trade deadline while their value is at a peak?
It's easy to embrace the "buy low" portion of the clichéd way to approach trades, which is really just a way to profit from understanding regression to the mean. Who doesn't want to add a talented player at a low price?
"Sell high" is a bit harder to swallow if it means trading away a player who's currently going strong. But history tells us players typically are unable to sustain performance out of line with their career norms. That provides an opportunity to get value for teams willing to make the tough call.
Let's take a look at seven players on likely lottery teams who have outperformed expectations and might be good "sell-high" candidates.
Jordan Clarkson | L.A. Lakers | guard
Given that the Lakers likely need to move Clarkson's $12.5 million salary for 2018-19 in order to create enough cap space to make two max offers in free agency this summer, there's incentive for them to act now. If teams believe Clarkson is the efficient scorer off the bench he looked like early in the season, the Lakers might be able to deal him for an expiring contract or into cap space without having to give up draft picks as sweeteners.
Unfortunately for the Lakers, Clarkson already seems to have regressed to the mean. After posting a robust .570 true shooting percentage through the end of November on the strength of 37.3 percent 3-point shooting, Clarkson is down to 30.3 percent from 3 and a .477 true shooting percentage in December and January.
Spencer Dinwiddie | Brooklyn Nets | guard
Given how starved the Nets have been for talent during their rebuilding process, the idea of trading Dinwiddie just as he's broken through as a starting-caliber point guard is a particularly tough sell. To Dinwiddie's credit, nothing about his play this season seems particularly fluky. He's actually shooting worse from 3-point range than 2016-17. Still, Dinwiddie has gone from an acceptable backup to top 15 in the entire league in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), and that's going to be tough to maintain.
Another team might also benefit more than Brooklyn from Dinwiddie's bargain contract, which pays him just $1.5 million this season and $1.7 million in 2018-19. A tax-strapped team could trade a pick that falls in the 15-20 range of next year's draft for Dinwiddie and likely save money in the process. I'm not sure there's a taker for that kind of trade -- the Denver Nuggets, the most logical candidate, are probably out of the market with Jamal Murray's development -- but I'd explore it if I were running the Nets.
Tyreke Evans | Memphis Grizzlies | guard
Quietly, Evans has been one of the NBA's better guards this season filling in as a starting point guard for the injured Mike Conley. He ranks 17th in the league in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric and 28th in RPM. Though Evans probably isn't thatgood, we've now got a three-year sample of him shooting 39 percent from 3-point range on more than 400 attempts. Given Evans has always been difficult to stop off the dribble, adding that kind of shooting prowess has made him a star.
With Evans on a one-year contract and the Grizzlies hopelessly out of playoff contention, there's little question he will be traded. It's just a matter of how much Memphis can get for him.
Joe Harris | Brooklyn Nets | guard
Though Harris is a sharpshooter, 3-point shooting has little to do with his improvement this year. He's making 37.9 percent of his 3s, nearly identical to last year's 38.5 percent mark. Inside the arc, however, Harris has gone from 48.9 percent accuracy on 2-pointers to 61.0 percent. Second Spectrum data suggests Harris' attempts have gotten only marginally easier (his qSQ, the accuracy we'd expect from an average player given the location and type of the shots and nearby defenders, has gone from 53.4 percent to 53.8 percent), so this is probably something of a fluke.
Harris could be an alternative for teams that strike out on Marco Belinelli, the top shooter available as a rental and a sell-high candidate in his own right, or need a cheaper option. The Nets should feel comfortable moving on, particularly if they think they can get similar production from newcomer Nik Stauskas.
Courtney Lee | New York Knicks | guard
One of Phil Jackson's better additions via free agency, Lee is averaging a career-high 13.6 PPG this season. He's making a career-best 43.3 percent of his 3-point attempts -- a likely area for regression -- and has also shown improvement in terms of making plays out of the pick-and-roll. According to Second Spectrum data, Lee has already run 420 pick-and-rolls this season, nearly matching his 2016-17 total (501) and on pace to crush his highest total since 2013-14 (611).
The Knicks should be thinking of that success as a way to get out of Lee's contract, which could get problematic on the back end. Lee will make $12.3 million in 2017-18 and $12.8 million in 2018-19 at age 34.
Alex Len | Phoenix Suns | center
After making little progress during his first four NBA seasons, Len has made a breakthrough in Year 5, shooting a career-high 54.5 percent from the field. While his shooting percentage is the most notable difference, Len is on track for career bests in several categories, including free throw percentage, both offensive and defensive rebound percentage, and even assist rate.
If the Suns still aren't sold on Len or don't expect to re-sign him as an restricted free agent after he signed a one-year qualifying offer last summer, a trade might make sense. That possibility is complicated by the fact that Len would have to approve any deal, and his new team would not have Bird Rights that allow it to exceed the salary cap to re-sign him.
Nikola Mirotic | Chicago Bulls | forward
Like the Grizzlies with Evans, the Bulls will probably end up dealing Mirotic no matter what. He reportedly requested a trade following the altercation at practice with teammate Bobby Portis that sidelined him for the season's first month and a half. Still, Mirotic's strong start may give Chicago a reason to move him quickly instead of waiting for the deadline.
I detailed in a recent mailbag why Mirotic is unlikely to maintain his hot shooting. That shouldn't necessarily scare away other teams. Because of his reputation as a shooter, Mirotic's gravity has meant he's rated better by advanced stats in the past than conventional wisdom would indicate. Mirotic has plenty of room to cool off from 3 and remain a valuable player.
DoubleJ13
Smooth sailing from here on out...
This Thunder team 
Last 4 or 5 games they just keep turning it over, playing shyt defense, & PG & Melo can't make anything.
Last 4 or 5 games they just keep turning it over, playing shyt defense, & PG & Melo can't make anything.
Yeah they are, he’s gonna put up 25 next seasonAdidas about to EAT off of Lavine being in Chicago
funkee
All Star
fixed...i seriously think he'll do 28-30 with this offensive scheme especially if he doesn't have to waste time playing w/ jerian grant or shot-happy mirotic. thibs was dumb AF trading him instead of wiggins. game looks so much easier for him and he doesn't appear to have a lost a step at all even though he clearly bulked up.
Adidas about to EAT off of Lavine being in Chicago
i've said it before, but WTF was nike thinking not offering enough to re-sign him in fukking chicago of all places?! with the air jordan legacy? someone at nike needs to get fired for that shyt. this will be almost as bad as nike letting UA snatch up curry.
