Random NBA Observations 2016 - 2017

[ALonelyDad]

that's a long ways from full cac

and in franks defense, that mtv shyt was corny as fukk

I agree with the MTV part, but dude doubled down on that African Studies one..oh well

 

[42 Monks]

Did Kemba have some massive improvement between this year and last or was Al Jefferson clogging the lanes and forcing us into sets that made it impossible for perimeter players to thrive the root of the problem since clifford treated him like the #1 option his entire time here



i wonder if i searched this thread, how many times 'al jefferson' would pop up.

definitely not a lost storyline on the season so far

 

[Sister Sledge]

Did Kemba have some massive improvement between this year and last or was Al Jefferson clogging the lanes and forcing us into sets that made it impossible for perimeter players to thrive the root of the problem since clifford treated him like the #1 option his entire time here



i wonder if i searched this thread, how many times 'al jefferson' would pop up.

definitely not a lost storyline on the season so far

It's more about his consistency more than anything else. He gets it done on a nightly basis now. Even in the last two years, Kemba was getting more cocsistent. Now, he has upped it to a higher level. Not on Derozens level of consistency, but he is up there.

 

[42 Monks]

It's more about his consistency more than anything else. He gets it done on a nightly basis now. Even in the last two years, Kemba was getting more cocsistent. Now, he has upped it to a higher level. Not on Derozens level of consistency, but he is up there.

He's only getting more consistent in not taking completely absurd shots. The 'consistency' in this offense is the same thing that people saw years ago when Zeller and Biyombo replaced Al for the first time at length. Al not getting to waste the first 12 seconds of the shotclock getting the ball or setting up to get the ball means that Kemba can look to move a defense and that the defense has to be honest with him. And he actually gets real screens for a change. (some centers just know how to make the game easy) No more roving helpside defenders that don't have to worry about losing track of Al Jeff's wheelchair.

In the past few years the Hornets also took more off the dribble 3s late in the shot clock than just about every other team in the league.

Has Kemba improved? Sure. Was it out of nowhere and the result of him putting countless solo hours in the gym?

hell naw.

 

[Sister Sledge]

He's only getting more consistent in not taking completely absurd shots. The 'consistency' in this offense is the same thing that people saw years ago when Zeller and Biyombo replaced Al for the first time at length. Al not getting to waste the first 12 seconds of the shotclock getting the ball or setting up to get the ball means that Kemba can look to move a defense and that the defense has to be honest with him. And he actually gets real screens for a change. (some centers just know how to make the game easy) No more roving helpside defenders that don't have to worry about losing track of Al Jeff's wheelchair.

In the past few years the Hornets also took more off the dribble 3s late in the shot clock than just about every other team in the league.

Has Kemba improved? Sure. Was it out of nowhere and the result of him putting countless solo hours in the gym?

hell naw.

I don't think anyone ever said he improved overnight. He has just gotten better over time. It really helped that Clifford went to a more quard-oriented system. Even so, when Big Al was there, they played well together.

 

[pimpineasy]

I'm just curious, what is the lowest seed or record OKC can have for Russell Westbrook to win the MVP?

As many of you know I did bet on James Harden to win the MVP before the season but before I did that I spent some time looking at MVP trends of the past 36 seasons


-The last player to win the MVP award with his team being seeded less than 2nd in his conference was Michael Jordan in the in 1987-88 season. His team was seeded 3rd (50-32) with him averaging 35, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists with 21.2 win shares, the 3rd highest PER of all time at 31.7 (only 2 Wilt seasons are better), 11.8 VORP and 12.2 BPM. Basically it took one of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history in order for voters to abandon the principle of voting for a player who is a top 2 seed in his conference. This may actually be a testament to MJ's greatness.

-Moses Malone won the 1981-82 MVP as 6th seed (46-36) putting up 31.1 points, 14.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Definitely an extreme outlier. Russ probably gets here.....

-No one else in the past 36 seasons has won MVP who wasn't a top 2 seed in their conference besides MJ and Moses Malone.

-Lowest 2nd place MVP finishers by seed with record and stats listed
2010-11-Dwight Howard (4th seed: 52-30) 22.9 pts 14.1 rbs, 1.4 asts 1.4 stls, 2.4 blks
PER 26.1, VORP 5, BPM 4.8

2009-10-Kevin Durant (8th seed: 50-32)
30.1 pts, 7.6 rbs, 2.8 asts, 1.4 stls, 1 blks
PER 26.2 VORP 5.8 BPM 5.1

2005-06-LeBron James (4th seed: 50-32)
31.4 pts, 7 rbs, 6.6 asts, 1.6 stls, 0.8 blks
PER 28.1 VORP 9.5 BPM 9.3

2002-03-Kevin Garnett (4th seed: 51-31)
23 pts 13.4 rbs, 6 asts, 1.4 stls, 1.6 blks
PER 26.4 VORP 9 BPM 8.7

1999-00-Kevin Garnett (6th seed: 50-32)
22.9 pts 11.8 rbs,5 asts, 1.5 stls, 1.6 blks
PER 23.6 VORP 6.6 BPM 6.1

1993-94-David Robinson (4th seed: 55-27)
29.8 pts 10.7 rbs, 4.8 asts, 1.7 stls, 3.3 blks
PER 30.7 VORP10.6 BPM 10.9

1988-89-Michael Jordan (6th seed: 47-35)
32.5 pts , 8 rbs, 8 asts, 2.9 stls, 0.8 blks
PER 31.1 VORP 12 BPM 12.6

1986-87-Michael Jordan (8th seed: 40-42)
37.1 pts, 5.2 rbs, 4.6 asts, 2.9 stls, 1.5 blks
PER 29.8 VORP 8.8 BPM 8.6

1985-86-Dominique Wilkins (4th seed: 50-32)
30.3 pts, 7.9 rbs, 2.6 asts, 1.8 stls, 0.6 blks
PER 23.3 VORP 4.3 BPM 3.6

1983-84-Bernard King (5th seed: 47-35)
26.3 pts, 5.1 rbs, 2.1 asts, 1 stls, 0.2 blks
PER 22.7 VORP 3.7 BPM 3.6


Before the season I created both a logistic regression model and a multiple linear regression model to predict who's most likely to win.
A Logistic Regression Model is a regression model where the dependent variable (DV) is categorical. The model takes on binary dependent variables—that is, where it can take only two values, such as pass/fail, win/lose, alive/dead or healthy/sick. In this case..... Win/Lose. (1 for Win, 0 for Lose)

I also ran a multiple linear regression model using voting shares as a defendant variable. I used voting shares because the number of voters changes every year for some odd reason.

I tested PTS, TRB, AST, STL, BLK, FG%, 3P%, FT%, WS, WS/48, Wins, Team win%, Conf Seed, P.E.R (Player Efficiency Rating), V.O.R.P (Value Over Replacement), B.P.M (Box Plus Minus) as independent variables for both models. Speaking to the irrationality of MVP voting, most of these factors had no significance and in the end I was left with:

PTS, TRB, AST, Wins, Team Win%, (necessary to use instead of Wins for the Lockout year in 2011-2012 and 98-99), Conference Seed & V.O.R.P.

The Least Squares Multiple Regression model only captured 51 percent of the variation in MVP Shares. Definitely speaks to the overall inconsistency of MVP voters.

RSquare 0.519715536
RSquare Adj 0.5147384949
Root Mean Square Error 0.1772364251
Mean of Response 0.1527576792
Observations (or Sum Wgts) 586

Intercept -0.70054685 | 0.1178579499 | -5.94 <.0001
V.O.R.P 0.0401937275 | 0.0049151345 | 8.18 <.0001
Cf Seed -0.020582542 | 0.0054760507 | -3.76 0.0002
PTS 0.0168756253 | 0.0017458611 | 9.67 <.0001
TRB 0.0129816115 | 0.0031240918 | 4.16 <.0001
AST 0.0131974466 | 0.003783606 | 3.49 0.0005
Wins 0.0041928452 |0.0016868522 | 2.49 0.0132

I have some ideas on how I can increase the R-square to account for more variability (maybe I might implement them later during the NBA season and post projections based on in season results.)

I do feel as though the impact of team's 2nd highest scorer or best player plays a role in how MVP voters see things (i.e.: Derrick Rose and Allen Iverson.....or in the case of Damian Lillard losing his whole starting lineup and still carrying his team to the playoffs yet getting more MVP votes than Kyle Lowry despite having an inferior statistical season with less wins)

Anyways, Here's some things I found interesting.

-My models (both logistic and multiple regression) does not like Derrick Rose's 2010-11 season and thinks Lebron should have won MVP. Lebron ranked out as the best player in the 2010-2011 NBA season by every metric but conference seeding and wins won out. In a year with a rookie head coach in Tom Thibodeau, a top seed in the conference despite a new formed super team in Miami (although they had plenty of flaws that first season).....someone had to get the credit, just happened to be Derrick Rose. A bit undeserved considering the 2010 Bulls were 1st in Drtg and 11th in Offense Rating. They won games defensively but typically the best offensive player on a team that wins games defensively gets typically overrated. Speaking to the Miami Supeteam backlash, Dwight Howard finished over Lebron James in MVP shares that season. Basically Kevin Durant and Steph Curry almost have no chance if voter backlash to Durant in 2016 is anything like Lebron received. Lebron finished 3rd in voter shares despite being overwhelmingly the best player in the league with he league's 2nd best record.

-Similar to above, my model also prefers Shaq's 2001 season over AI's. Both teams had the same record.

Very interesting. R square too low right now. But still pretty interesting. Tag me when you update model. And also I wouldn't mind taking a look. I assume you ran the model in Excel. I don't have a copy of MATLAB or SAS.

 

[KOBE]

At least there's this

If that combo works the potential defense in the paint will be unreal.

 

[Hiphoplives4eva]

Harden is in the zone....

 

[Sister Sledge]

Nerlens Noel was taken out of the lineup last week and is doing spot duty. Any way you swing it, Philly hass too many bigs. They have three starting-level centers who need minutes, they have Dario Saric, who needs minutes, and when he gets back, they have Ben Simmons, who will need minutes. Two of these guys will have to go.

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

Very interesting. R square too low right now. But still pretty interesting. Tag me when you update model. And also I wouldn't mind taking a look. I assume you ran the model in Excel. I don't have a copy of MATLAB or SAS.

I used JMP......I actually need to purchased a new version of JMP before I can access the model again. Since I upgraded my Mac to Sierra, JMP won't run for me. I'll def let you know when I update it.

 

[Captain Crunch]

What would be the best trade involving Jahlil Okafor?

 

[Miggs]

I used JMP......I actually need to purchased a new version of JMP before I can access the model again. Since I upgraded my Mac to Sierra, JMP won't run for me. I'll def let you know when I update it.

I saw you mentioned Lowry and the weird thing is for some reason outside of local media everybody thinks DeRozan is the best player and MVP on the team and its purely based on his scoring average....That kills any movement for KL as any kind of MVP candidate...

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

I saw you mentioned Lowry and the weird thing is for some reason outside of local media everybody thinks DeRozan is the best player and MVP on the team and its purely based on his scoring average....That kills any movement for KL as any kind of MVP candidate...

I've come to the conclusion over the past few years that the average basketball fan rates volume scoring over everything else so it's not surprising to me at all.

As great as we know they were, it's even seen with the perceptions of guys like Iverson & Kobe.

 

[Malta]

What would be the best trade involving Jahlil Okafor?

Buddy Hield & future first

 

[Miggs]

I've come to the conclusion over the past few years that the average basketball fan rates volume scoring over everything else so it's not surprising to me at all.

As great as we know they were, it's even seen with the perceptions of guys like Iverson & Kobe.

The major network analysts are just as bad as the fans,they see DeRozan in the highlight packages dunking on Rubio and they jump on that train that hes the best player because he has the posters and thats all it takes to get that narratibe moving....If you dont watch the Raptors every night and you see his top 3 scoring numbers you might be fooled into thinking it...