NBA draft talk: Will Celtics pass on Fultz? Lakers to trade No. 2 pick?
This year, draft talk is circulating even more than usual, especially at the top of the draft. NBA general managers, scouts and agents are putting the puzzle together, and I'm on the phone with them all day, every day, trying to sort out solid information from rumors.
Here are three major items from GMs with strong track records of truth-telling at this time of year, involving the No. 1 pick, the No. 2 pick and fast-rising Duke star
Luke Kennard.
Celtics might pull a surprise at No. 1
Markelle Fultz has been atop my Big Board since version 2.0, and his only real challenger most of the year has been
Lonzo Ball.
But
Josh Jackson, who was No. 1 on Big Board 1.0, has emerged as an intriguing option for the Celtics and team president Danny Ainge (even though he
canceled a workout with Boston this week, according to ESPN's Jeff Goodman and Marc Spears).
"I've picked Danny's brain for years," one GM said. "Jackson is an Ainge player all the way. Tough, athletic, long, versatile, elite motor. If he's keeping the pick, Jackson just to me, far and away, is the most Celtics-type player for them to draft. From all my conversations with them, I'm convinced they'll take Jackson No. 1."
He's correct in that Jackson fits the prototypical Celtics mold.
Rajon Rondo,
Avery Bradley,
Marcus Smart and
Jaylen Brown all fit that description, and all were first-round selections by Boston (Rondo via trade).
Jackson has yet to work out for the Celtics, according to his agent, B.J. Armstrong, who said that Jackson has worked out twice for the Lakers and once for the 76ers. Jackson is also scheduled to work out for the Suns before the draft.
"We have great respect for Boston and Danny Ainge," Armstrong said. "That's a championship-caliber organization and Josh brings the things that I know Danny values. He can defend his position at an elite level. He can rebound for his position at an elite level and he can pass for his position at an elite level. All the championship-caliber teams are looking for players who can do those three things. And I know they want winners.
"We're in dialogue with Boston. We're very respectful of them. They have the No. 1 pick and can select whoever they choose. We just need to see how things play out over the next week."
While Armstrong declined to give specifics about why Jackson hasn't worked out there, other league sources believe that it's likely that Jackson's camp feels that both the Lakers and Sixers would give Jackson a larger role from day one.
A number of agents have expressed concerns that the Celtics might not have enough playing time for their clients to develop properly, given the depth and experience of their roster. (Ball also declined a workout with Boston.)
Fit is a question mark for Jackson as well, with both Jaylen Brown and Jae Crowder already on the roster.
Don't the Celtics need players with differing skill sets? Isn't Jackson a bit duplicative, especially given the arrival of Brown last year?
Another GM doesn't see it that way.
"Jackson will be better than all of those guys [at his position in Boston]," the GM said. "Danny's looking for a star, and I think Jackson has as much or more star potential than Fultz or Ball. Everyone on the Celtics is an asset. Danny can move them all. He'll take the player he likes the best. Period. He'll figure out fit in the summer."
What do the Celtics have to say about this? They're staying mum on whom they're taking No. 1, but a source says the franchise is strongly considering options other than Fultz and that Jackson is one of those options.
"We like him a lot," the Celtics source said. "But we like several guys a lot. We've got a week to figure it out."
If Jackson doesn't work out for Boston, would that scare the Celtics away? "Absolutely not," a Celtics source said. "That's true for Josh and Lonzo and anyone else. We've done our homework. The workouts are nice, but they're not mandatory. We'll select the best player."
Will the Lakers trade the No. 2 pick?
It's a big week in L.A. Fultz held his first workout with the Lakers on Thursday, while Ball will work out for the team a second time on Friday. The session will take place at an undisclosed location where Ball can demonstrate his work ethic, a source told ESPN's Ramona Shelburne. Additionally, the Lakers are working toward finalizing a first workout with
Jayson Tatum this weekend.
Add future workouts from Jackson and
De'Aaron Fox to that equation, and we'll have a good idea whom the Lakers are looking to draft with the No. 2 pick. Sources say that if the Lakers keep their current pick, it's down to those five players.
The top candidates, according to sources, are Fultz, Jackson and Ball, and the latter still appears to be the team's favorite.
But another scenario has piqued the franchise's interest. The Lakers held internal discussions about trading back two spots to No. 4 if the Suns were to offer them a 2018 first-round pick. The Suns hold their own 2018 pick (which currently projects to be a high lottery pick) as well as the rights to the
Miami Heat's 2018 pick. The latter pick is top-seven-protected in 2018 but unprotected in 2019.
The Lakers believe that Ball or Jackson might be available at the No. 4 spot. If not, the Lakers are still very high on Fox and Tatum, and believe that securing an additional prospect might be worth dropping two spots in the draft.
The Kings are another potential trade partner for the Lakers. They hold the rights to the fifth and 10th picks and have discussed moving up in this year's draft.
At No. 5, the Lakers might still be able to choose between Fox and Tatum (and potentially Ball), or just take the best prospect who's available. And at No. 10, other strong prospects -- such as
Malik Monk,
Dennis Smith,
Frank Ntilikina,
Lauri Markkanen, Kennard and/or
Zach Collins -- would likely still be on the board. (It should be noted that the Lakers are
not considering taking Smith with the No. 2 pick.)
The Lakers are looking for strong shooters, and several of the aforementioned prospects would help the franchise fill that void.
"The draft is so deep, it might be worth dropping out of the top two to get a couple of potential All-Stars," one rival GM said. "I'm not sure the gap between guys like Fox, Tatum and [Jonathan] Isaac is big enough to stop the Lakers from pulling the trigger. They'd be able to address two needs at really affordable contracts."
From what I'm hearing, it sounds like the Lakers are unwilling to trade their pick if it means dropping out of the top five spots in the draft. They want to get at least one young player with star potential out of this draft, and feel confident they can acquire a veteran star during free agency in 2018.
The hot name moving up fastest: Luke Kennard
Kennard has been a polarizing prospect, but a consensus is starting to form among teams that have evaluated him recently.
He started the college season as a fringe first-round prospect, but in recent weeks he's moved up fast. Based on conversations with GMs this week, I put him in the third tier of first-round-caliber players, but teams are increasingly grouping him with other second-tier prospects.
Kennard has worked out for the Lakers, Knicks, Pistons, Heat and Pacers. He still has workouts scheduled with the Magic, Mavericks and Hornets.
The feedback from teams has been overwhelmingly positive.
"There's no way he gets to us," one GM in the late lottery said. "I don't think there's any way he's out of the top 10. We think he's the best shooter in the draft. We think he's tough. He's more athletic than you think. He really thinks the game. He's the most underrated guy in this draft."
"He's ranked ahead of Malik Monk on our board," another GM said. "He's not as athletic, but he has a much more versatile game and he's less streaky. Monk will be great. An instant scorer coming off the bench. But we think Kennard could be a full-time starter in the league."
Shooting comes at a premium right now in the NBA, and that partially explains the rise in Kennard's stock. But most teams see the former Blue Devil as more than just a shooter.
Right now it looks like the Pistons at No. 12 are Kennard's floor. But he could go higher. The Knicks, according to a team source, are seriously considering taking him at No. 8. And a Lakers source said he'd be a favorite if the team ends up with a second pick in the top 10.
Phil should take monk or Issac and call it a day
