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Spurs just don't have luck this year
On why the Spurs won't repeat -

The fact a team without a superstar hasn't repeated is only one string of the bow - where the arrow lands won't be because this conventional wisdom you speak of is a cause as to why they'll fail - it's just to add to the fact that the same probability of luck isn't likely to strike two seasons in a row. This is only scratching the surface as to what they'll need to go their way this season:

Secure #1 seed
Largely remain injury-free
All three of Parker, Duncan and Ginobili to maintain their games (relative to what their bodies can cope with)
Role players step up another level and at the right times
Kawhi to develop his game and grow into a star
Maintain the gap on the competition or at least keep them out of team difference
Injuries (e.g. Ibaka last season) to other other squads
Have 50/50 calls go their way in every series and at certain turning/momentum points in games
Ability to stay fresh enough to counter balance the youth of other teams throughout the playoffs
The reliance on other teams' stars not having career performances
The reliance on other teams' role players not outplaying theirs

I could go on and on but you get the point - if any one of these fails to reoccur, it'll break the foundation and cracks will emerge, and when cracks emerge, their % of repeating drops according to the relevancy of each one to where a team can take an advantage of power.

:mjpls:
 

DCMC

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