Predictions for Africa in the 20's

[2Quik4UHoes]

It doesn't matter because the North has allegiance of the smaller ethnic groups/nationalities so they'll tend to have the numbers to always favor. If you look at the map below, the "North" which is usually interchanged with the Fulani-Hausa bloc, isn't as big of bloc as it currently is understood.

However, one reason the North has been able to consolidate power has been due to the alignment of the middle belt (which doesn't have a clear cut ethnic majority) into the "North". See this map below.

So the North has the numbers to always counter a southern based movement. Additionally, the Yorubas (represented in the South-West) has usually aligned themselves with the Northern political elite in return for favourable allocations for Lagos. It also doesn't help that the South-South and the South East (what would have been Biafra) aren't aligned on objectives.

There is a business case for Nigeria, do not get it twisted. But the current incentives aren't well aligned.

Interesting, I just learned a little about Nigerian politics not that long ago and I find it pretty fascinating. Biafra was a very sad situation. So basically with the central region playing as an ethnically neutral buffer, that’s swung influence to the north? While the south is divided East/West by differing allegiances (Yoruba working with the north vs the shattered pieces of Biafra).

Would it be a safe assumption on my part to think that the Deep South and other parts of what was to be Biafra is in this condition not just because of the war but also because of the need to maintain control in the delta?

 

[phcitywarrior]

Interesting, I just learned a little about Nigerian politics not that long ago and I find it pretty fascinating. Biafra was a very sad situation. So basically with the central region playing as an ethnically neutral buffer, that’s swung influence to the north? While the south is divided East/West by differing allegiances (Yoruba working with the north vs the shattered pieces of Biafra).

Would it be a safe assumption on my part to think that the Deep South and other parts of what was to be Biafra is in this condition not just because of the war but also because of the need to maintain control in the delta?

The central region has been a melting point of many different ethnicities and yes, it has helped swing influence to the North. To the bolded, do you mean the Nigerian state maintaining control of the Niger Delta (O&G producing region)? I want to ensure I understand the question.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

The central region has been a melting point of many different ethnicities and yes, it has helped swing influence to the North. To the bolded, do you mean the Nigerian state maintaining control of the Niger Delta (O&G producing region)? I want to ensure I understand the question.

Exactly, the way I’m reading it it seems like the other regions benefit from the old portions of Biafra not being as united as they once were. Is that a quiet but active policy or is it just by chance?

 

[phcitywarrior]

Exactly, the way I’m reading it it seems like the other regions benefit from the old portions of Biafra not being as united as they once were. Is that a quiet but active policy or is it just by chance?

United or not, the region that represents former "Biafra" is responsible for a lot of the economic activity and output in Nigeria. Whether it be through O&G exports or simple trade and commerce. Now, the "gripes" with East and South-South (old Biafra) concerning the rest of Nigeria, is that

1. They feel there's underdevelopment within that region when compared to their economic activity.
2. They feel their citizens aren't represented equally in key government positions (Energy, Finance, Agriculture)
3. They feel Nigerian state is too centralized and power needs to be delegated amongst the other tiers of government.

To point 1, there is some truth to this. In Nigeria, the main shipping port is based in Lagos but there are other viable cities where deeper and bigger ports could be built to increase economic competitiveness (Uyo in the South South for example has a deeper natural port than Lagos). A couple months ago there was an extreme cargo blockage at the Apapa port in Lagos. Containers where backlogged at the port and getting good in and out of the country was very difficult. It ignited conversation about underdevelopment of other viable ports in Nigeria that would improve it's economic prospects. The Lagos business elite don't actually care for this since Lagos has the business infrastructure established.

Point 2, This is also quite true. When Buhari came into power he did a pretty big reshuffle. And it's not surprising that many top appointees were made along ethnic lines.

Point 3 is probably the biggest one. Quite honestly, the Nigerian state is being run like a unitary state instead of a federal state. Abuja (the seat of the National government) has too much influence over what other states can and cannot do. Let's go back to the port example and let's use the USA for an illustrative example.

Currently, in Nigeria, if a state wants to build or improve it's port, it has to go through the NPA (Nigerian Port Authority) in Abuja to do so. There isn't an agency at the state that can operate and develop its own ports.

That's like being in Seattle looking to develop a port, but you have to wait until you get the go ahead from DC.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

United or not, the region that represents former "Biafra" is responsible for a lot of the economic activity and output in Nigeria. Whether it be through O&G exports or simple trade and commerce. Now, the "gripes" with East and South-South (old Biafra) concerning the rest of Nigeria, is that

1. They feel there's underdevelopment within that region when compared to their economic activity.
2. They feel their citizens aren't represented equally in key government positions (Energy, Finance, Agriculture)
3. They feel Nigerian state is too centralized and power needs to be delegated amongst the other tiers of government.

To point 1, there is some truth to this. In Nigeria, the main shipping port is based in Lagos but there are other viable cities where deeper and bigger ports could be built to increase economic competitiveness (Uyo in the South South for example has a deeper natural port than Lagos). A couple months ago there was an extreme cargo blockage at the Apapa port in Lagos. Containers where backlogged at the port and getting good in and out of the country was very difficult. It ignited conversation about underdevelopment of other viable ports in Nigeria that would improve it's economic prospects. The Lagos business elite don't actually care for this since Lagos has the business infrastructure established.

Point 2, This is also quite true. When Buhari came into power he did a pretty big reshuffle. And it's not surprising that many top appointees were made along ethnic lines.

Point 3 is probably the biggest one. Quite honestly, the Nigerian state is being run like a unitary state instead of a federal state. Abuja (the seat of the National government) has too much influence over what other states can and cannot do. Let's go back to the port example and let's use the USA for an illustrative example.

Currently, in Nigeria, if a state wants to build or improve it's port, it has to go through the NPA (Nigerian Port Authority) in Abuja to do so. There isn't an agency at the state that can operate and develop its own ports.

That's like being in Seattle looking to develop a port, but you have to wait until you get the go ahead from DC.

Would the overly centralized setup have something to do with the varying regional interests within the country as well as the monopoly that Lagos has as the business powerhouse? I can see that being an issue too, a new port thats more naturally suited could provide a much more modern option and a legitimate rival for market share in the import/export field.

But that’s kinda what I was getting at, if the O&G areas were more developed and had more of a say would that go against the desires of the other groups whom want to have firm control of O&G?

 

[phcitywarrior]

Would the overly centralized setup have something to do with the varying regional interests within the country as well as the monopoly that Lagos has as the business powerhouse? I can see that being an issue too, a new port thats more naturally suited could provide a much more modern option and a legitimate rival for market share in the import/export field.

But that’s kinda what I was getting at, if the O&G areas were more developed and had more of a say would that go against the desires of the other groups whom want to have firm control of O&G?

Centralization is a holder from the British colonial days. The UK runs a unitary, central government and exported that model to most of it's colonial subjects. Lagos was the former capital of Nigeria so that's how it centralized business and politics.

And yes, a prosperous South would have more say in government. Truth be told, if the West and South banded together and seceded, the North would be fcked. Landlocked and without any industry. The issue is the South South and South East haven't been able to unite on what their demands are.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

Been meaning to make this thread for a few months

Interested in hearing what you all think will happen across Africa over the course of the decade

-Which economies do you think will see sustained growth? Which economies will stagnate or enter a period of decline?
-Which nations will see political stability? Which nations do you believe will have internal crises, and what will the nature of these crises be?
-What are some things/events you'd like to see happen? What are some things you believe can't happen over the decade?
-Do you foresee any wars between African nations?
-How will climate change effect Africa, and which African nations will be affected the most?

Feel free to answer any of these questions or give your own general thoughts, and likewise feel free to answer for a specific nation/region if you'd prefer

• Basically what we see now: Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Tanzania, and Rwanda, will continue to grow. However, South Africa is gonna be in a recession for awhile until they get their finances together.
• Add Uganda to the list of countries above for political stability. Though I have hope for Somailiand and Western Sahara.
• I think in 10 years sub-saharan nations will have solid, definable middle class. Much larger than they are now. In terms of crises, any country that took too much money from China will be fukked. If Mail is any indication, Francophone Africa may see some turmoil and a bit of revolution.
• I'd like to see more in-house industrialization. But I doubt that will happen. Africa seems too comfortable with importing foreign goods.
• Aside from the Sudans, Egypt-Ethiopia, and the Horn. Nope.
• Climate change? That's a good question. I think the Sahara will grow. So those bordering nations will be most affected.

 

[#1 pick]

Centralization is a holder from the British colonial days. The UK runs a unitary, central government and exported that model to most of it's colonial subjects. Lagos was the former capital of Nigeria so that's how it centralized business and politics.

And yes, a prosperous South would have more say in government. Truth be told, if the West and South banded together and seceded, the North would be fcked. Landlocked and without any industry. The issue is the South South and South East haven't been able to unite on what their demands are.

Too much political divide is the issue. If Biafra was to happen, will it be currently landlocked, yes but the issue is, if they are well organized and lead, the South-South will join as well. Once again, leading to war. The issue is, there is no way the North is giving up the SE regions as they benefit even if the region doesn't. They know the region doesn't benefit, that's why they want out of Nigeria right now.

 

[Sinnerman]

Shamelessly bumping this thread

 

[Sinnerman]

It's been a pretty crazy past twelve months in Africa with the death of Idriss Deby, tensions in Ethiopia and CAR etc.

Anyone have any new predictions?

 

[Secure Da Bag]

I'm still sad that Africa isn't controlling more of their resource. Or at least that doesn't seem to be the plan, excluding Ghana.

Still in 2020s, the oil-producing countries are still heavily leaning and depending on oil and have not made real attempts, AFAIK, in diversifying their portfolio. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia should have been enough to move them away from oil as a breadbasket.

 

[DoubleClutch]

I think we all know China is taking over some countries

let’s see if African leaders allow it