Great thread. Some of my thoughts on countries and regions from my experiences, recent trends etc:
-With the 2Africa project coming to head in 2023, we'll see a big push for big tech and data into the African continent. Cities (and the respective countries) that get connected with the cable (Lagos, Accra, Abidjan, Cape Town, Mombasa etc) will be heads and tails above the rest.
-Nigeria either gets it act together or will gradually move towards a powder keg type situation. On one hand, it's still the biggest market in Africa so there will international interest in the economy, however, if government policy isn't conducive for investment, I could see a lot of Multinationals start moving their West African operations from Lagos to Accra. The 2023 election will be huge for the country. PMB actually should make all of the necessary but unpopular decisions now that he's in his last term and doesn't need political good will so to speak. Nigeria's debt profile will also start becoming an issue.
-Large oil exporters (Nigeria, Gabon, Angola etc) will be forced to rethink government revenues and income streams as oil will play less of a role in the 2020s. For a country like Nigeria, the private sector is only about 15% based on oil, however, the government sector collects most of its revenue from oil. Diversification and implementation of a proper tax system is needed.
-East Africa will play a larger role on the continents politics and business. Nairobi already has the UN's Africa office and Adis house's the AU. Rwanda has ambitions of being the transit hub of Africa since it can service both West, Southern and North Africa pretty well.
-Renewable energy is going to become much bigger on the continent, especially solar for the Sahelian nations.
-ISIS/ISWAS will become a bigger for, particularly in the West Sahelian states. Expect to see more military intervention on that front.
-Industrialization will not be at the scale needed to lift millions out of poverty. We may not see an industrial revolution on the scale of what happened in China or the south Eastern nations due to the advancements in technology.
-There may not be a full blown reverse migration of the African diaspora, but I could definitely see people doing more of a flexible arrangement where they're on the continent for a few months and back in the West for another few months.
-Nations with a sizable and relatively wealthy diaspora will look abroad for capital funding (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana etc). I expect to see formalized programs/schemes that will try to generate government revenue from citizens abroad.
-Francophone West Africa will start to compete/outpace Anglophone West Africa. France will look to combat the influence of China and Russia, to do so, it'll have to put it money where it's mouth it.
-Overall, I think this is a critical decade for the African continent. We'll see an emergence of African nations that will better hold their weight on the international stage e.g. Ghana, TZ, Kenya, SA but no real "leader" will emerge.
