Steve Koonin @SteveKoonin
Tonight's game vs Clippers is almost sold out! You'll want to be in the building #ATL. Come early, these @ATLHawks deserve a hero's welcome!
No cooling off hot Atlanta Streaking Hawks legit contender for East title using depth and defense
Originally Published: December 23, 2014
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
Since the calendar turned to December, the Atlanta Hawks have emerged as the NBA's hottest team. After a 7-6 start, the Hawks have won 13 of their past 14 games, capped by Monday night's win over the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The victory vaulted Atlanta into second place in the Eastern Conference, just a game behind the East-leadingToronto Raptors.
In the context of everything in the previous paragraph, this fact beggars belief: Atlanta's starting five has been outscored in the month of December. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Hawks' typical starters (Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Al Horford) are in fact a minus-4 in the 146 minutes they've played together this month, when Atlanta has outscored its opponents by a mere 132 points.
To explain this seeming contradiction, we must turn to the Hawks' bench. Because head coachMike Budenholzer came from the San Antonio Spurs, where he was an assistant to Gregg Popovich, Atlanta is frequently compared to San Antonio -- but usually in the context of the team's emphasis on ball movement and shooting. It's another trait shared with the Spurs, depth, that is helping the Hawks' rise in the East.
Atlanta has done it without one of this year's leading contenders for the sixth man award. The Hawks dealt Lou Williams to the Toronto Raptors over the summer, and have seen him bounce back two years following ACL surgery to average 22.9 points per 36 minutes. Yet the trade has been a win-win because it created an opening in Atlanta's backcourt for second-year guard Dennis Schroder, who has improved as much as anyone in the league.
As a rookie, Schroeder combined sub-40 percent shooting with turnovers on more than one in five of his possessions, leading to a 5.8 PER that was the second lowest in the NBA among players who saw at least 500 minutes of action. Schroeder has trebled that mark this season to 17.5 thanks to 54.3 percent accuracy inside the arc while using nearly a quarter of the Hawks' plays, along with an assist rate that has improved from 5.2 to 6.8 per 36 minutes.
Though Schroeder has been the most productive Atlanta reserve, the Hawks also have gotten effective floor spacing from stretch bigs Mike Scott and Pero Antic and elite defense from long-limbed wing stoppers Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore. The second unit is largely responsible for Atlanta posting the NBA's best defensive rating in the month of December (95.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats); with at least one reserve on the floor, that defensive rating drops all the way to a stifling 91.9.
Unlike some coaches, Budenholzer has rarely used all five bench players together -- just 31 minutes all month. But Budenholzer has done a fine job of mixing and matching his starters to complement the strengths and weakness of his reserves. Lineups with anywhere from one to four starters on the floor have been dominant in the month of December, as the chart at right shows.
The Hawks benefited, certainly, from a relatively easy schedule early in the month. But even with Schroeder filling in for an ailing Teague in the starting lineup, the bench has played a major role in a 3-0 road trip with wins over the Mavericks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets. Last Wednesday in Cleveland, Atlanta reserves combined for 73 points in a 29-point blowout of the Cavaliers that tied for the largest margin of victory on the road this season.
Wins like that have forced us to start considering Atlanta an East contender. The Hawks now rank sixth in the league in schedule-adjusted point differential, behind only Toronto in the conference. It might be last year's Raptors, not the Spurs, who are really the best analogue for Atlanta. I made that comparison on last week's Lowe Post podcast, noting that Toronto finished third in the East by ranking in the top 10 in the league in both offense and defense. (The Hawks are seventh in both categories right now.)
Like that Raptors team, it might be tough for casual fans to take Atlanta seriously because of a lack of star power. But there's more than one way to build a winning team, and a deep bench can carry the Hawks through the regular season.
The team on the other side of the Atlanta win Monday night, the Mavericks, experienced some growing pains integrating Rajon Rondo into the offense. While the Hawks have been shutting down everyone lately, Dallas' 38 points were a season low before halftime -- and their next-lowest effort, 42, came in Rondo's debut Saturday night against the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks managed just eight points in nearly eight minutes in the first quarter with Rondo on the floor.
Atlanta was aggressive about playing off Rondo and daring him to shoot, which meant he took a team-high 13 shots during the first three quarters. In turn, the Hawks' sagging defense clogged things up inside, particularly for center Tyson Chandler, who had just four shot attempts in 34 minutes. Dallas found more success in a fourth-quarter comeback by turning Monta Ellis loose and playing Rondo largely off the ball, a strategy that may serve as the fallback until Rick Carlisle can implement more offense that utilizes both guards' ability to create.
Since the calendar turned to December, the Atlanta Hawks have emerged as the NBA's hottest team. After a 7-6 start, the Hawks have won 13 of their past 14 games, capped by Monday night's win over the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The victory vaulted Atlanta into second place in the Eastern Conference, just a game behind the East-leading Toronto Raptors.
In the context of everything in the previous paragraph, this fact beggars belief: Atlanta's starting five has been outscored in the month of December. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Hawks' typical starters (Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Al Horford) are in fact a minus-4 in the 146 minutes they've played together this month, when Atlanta has outscored its opponents by a mere 132 points.
To explain this seeming contradiction, we must turn to the Hawks' bench. Because head coach Mike Budenholzer came from the San Antonio Spurs, where he was an assistant to Gregg Popovich, Atlanta is frequently compared to San Antonio -- but usually in the context of the team's emphasis on ball movement and shooting. It's another trait shared with the Spurs, depth, that is helping the Hawks' rise in the East.
Atlanta has done it without one of this year's leading contenders for the sixth man award. The Hawks dealt Lou Williams to the Toronto Raptors over the summer, and have seen him bounce back two years following ACL surgery to average 22.9 points per 36 minutes. Yet the trade has been a win-win because it created an opening in Atlanta's backcourt for second-year guard Dennis Schroder, who has improved as much as anyone in the league.
As a rookie, Schroeder combined sub-40 percent shooting with turnovers on more than one in five of his possessions, leading to a 5.8 PER that was the second lowest in the NBA among players who saw at least 500 minutes of action. Schroeder has trebled that mark this season to 17.5 thanks to 54.3 percent accuracy inside the arc while using nearly a quarter of the Hawks' plays, along with an assist rate that has improved from 5.2 to 6.8 per 36 minutes.
Though Schroeder has been the most productive Atlanta reserve, the Hawks also have gotten effective floor spacing from stretch bigs Mike Scott and Pero Antic and elite defense from long-limbed wing stoppers Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore. The second unit is largely responsible for Atlanta posting the NBA's best defensive rating in the month of December (95.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats); with at least one reserve on the floor, that defensive rating drops all the way to a stifling 91.9.
Unlike some coaches, Budenholzer has rarely used all five bench players together -- just 31 minutes all month. But Budenholzer has done a fine job of mixing and matching his starters to complement the strengths and weakness of his reserves. Lineups with anywhere from one to four starters on the floor have been dominant in the month of December, as the chart at right shows.
The Hawks benefited, certainly, from a relatively easy schedule early in the month. But even with Schroeder filling in for an ailing Teague in the starting lineup, the bench has played a major role in a 3-0 road trip with wins over the Mavericks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets. Last Wednesday in Cleveland, Atlanta reserves combined for 73 points in a 29-point blowout of the Cavaliers that tied for the largest margin of victory on the road this season.
Wins like that have forced us to start considering Atlanta an East contender. The Hawks now rank sixth in the league in schedule-adjusted point differential, behind only Toronto in the conference. It might be last year's Raptors, not the Spurs, who are really the best analogue for Atlanta. I made that comparison on last week's Lowe Post podcast, noting that Toronto finished third in the East by ranking in the top 10 in the league in both offense and defense. (The Hawks are seventh in both categories right now.)
Like that Raptors team, it might be tough for casual fans to take Atlanta seriously because of a lack of star power. But there's more than one way to build a winning team, and a deep bench can carry the Hawks through the regular season.
News and notes
• The team on the other side of the Atlanta win Monday night, the Mavericks, experienced some growing pains integrating Rajon Rondo into the offense. While the Hawks have been shutting down everyone lately, Dallas' 38 points were a season low before halftime -- and their next-lowest effort, 42, came in Rondo's debut Saturday night against the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks managed just eight points in nearly eight minutes in the first quarter with Rondo on the floor.
Atlanta was aggressive about playing off Rondo and daring him to shoot, which meant he took a team-high 13 shots during the first three quarters. In turn, the Hawks' sagging defense clogged things up inside, particularly for center Tyson Chandler, who had just four shot attempts in 34 minutes. Dallas found more success in a fourth-quarter comeback by turning Monta Ellis loose and playing Rondo largely off the ball, a strategy that may serve as the fallback until Rick Carlisle can implement more offense that utilizes both guards' ability to create.
Since then, Mirotic only strengthened his candidacy with a huge 27-point effort in a win at Memphis, including 6-of-6 shooting from beyond the arc. Still, as we pondered on the Lowe Post, a Mirotic victory would be unprecedented. Per Basketball-Reference.com, just two rookies of the year have averaged fewer than 30 minutes per game (Mike Miller in 2000-01 at 29.1 and Tom Heinsohn in 1956-57 at 29.9). Mirotic is currently averaging just 18.6 minutes, and that number could drop if the Chicago frontcourt gets (and stays) healthy. It will be fascinating to see what the voting panel does with Mirotic, who is clearly the most productive rookie in the league this year.
• Second-year wing Sergey Karasev has quietly emerged as a starter for the Brooklyn Nets. Karasev has started the past six games, playing nearly as many minutes (174) as in his previous season-plus in the NBA (191). Karasev has yet to find the touch from 3-point range, but he's displayed good feel for the game, and the Nets are plus-19 with him on the floor (as compared to minus-2 with Karasev on the bench) during that stretch.
The performance is encouraging for Karasev's future. While he's just weeks away from nearly being part of a trade (as part of the package the Philadelphia 76ers might have received in the Andrei Kirilenko deal the teams completed this month), Karasev is barely 21 and could be a rare cheap contributor for Brooklyn on his rookie contract.
The Big Bang-Bang Theory Why the quick-release, catch-and-shoot Atlanta Hawks are analytical darlings.
This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's Jan. 5 Championship Drive Issue. Subscribe today!
IF THERE'S ONE lesson that has made its way from analytic spreadsheets to NBA courts, it's that shot location matters. But it turns out that when you shoot can be as important as whereyou shoot from. And this season, one team is riding that insight to playoff contention -- and is a lot of fun to watch besides.
Since last season, every arena in the NBA has had SportVU optical-recognition technology in its catwalks, generating a slew of new player-tracking statistics that you can find, for free, on NBA.com. And among all the data, one split really leaps out: It's typically far better to shoot off the pass than to shoot off the dribble. When a player has the ball for two seconds or less, doesn't dribble and takes a jump shot from more than 10 feet, SportVU calls that a catch and shoot. Catch-and-shoot leaders include Klay Thompson, Wesley Matthews and Dirk Nowitzki, who has quickened his release and led the NBA with 8.1 catch-and-shoot attempts per game. On the other hand, SportVU defines a pull-up shot as any jumper outside 10 feet after a player takes at least one dribble before shooting, and you can guess who tops the league by a whopping margin in those. (Right, Kobe Bryant, at 10.9 per game.) According to my calculations, NBA players have an effective field goal percentage of 50.6 percent on catch and shoots this season versus just 41.1 percent on pull-ups.
Of course, players tend to shoot when they're open, so a team might not expect to gain much just by ordering players to throw up a J whenever they touch the rock. But the team could keep players constantly moving off the ball to find a point guard who can pass accurately to them. Or instruct guys who are driving to stay hyperaware of opportunities to dish back outside. Or encourage anyone prone to isolation play to get rid of the ball, even if that means taking the kind of midrange jumpers statheads usually frown upon. The Hawks are trying all of the above, and they have built a new kind of offense based on the catch and shoot.
In Atlanta's second season under Mike Budenholzer (who previously spent 19 years with the Spurs), a kettle of Hawks constantly screen and cut off the ball. Point guard Jeff Teaguepinpoints open men. And the entire starting lineup releases quickly and effectively from anywhere, led by Kyle Korver, who might be the best catch-and-shoot man in the NBA. (Korver's effective field goal percentage when not dribbling is an astonishing 78.0 percent. He's over 50 percent on all field goals this year, over 50 percent on threes and over 90 percent on free throws -- a combination no player in NBA history has sustained over a full season.) One particularly beautiful sequence came in the second quarter of a game against Brooklyn on Dec. 5: Teague timed his passes to create secondary opportunities; the ball flew across and around the horn as if it were seeking out Hawks blue; Atlanta hit four 3s; and over a four-minute span, a one-point contest turned into a 15-point blowout.
Overall, Atlanta is taking 30.3 catch-and-shoot attempts per game, the most in the league, and scoring 34.6 points per game on those attempts, 3.2 more than any other club. The Hawks rank sixth in the NBA at 109.4 points per 100 possessions, up from 18th last season. And after a 19-7 start, including a 127-98 demolition of LeBron James and the Cavaliers on December 17, they're ready to shed their status as one of the NBA's best-kept secrets.
The Hawks' emphasis on the catch and shoot has generated benefits beyond these basic numbers too. For one thing, it has allowed the team to rework big man Al Horford, back from a torn pectoral muscle last season, into the lineup in a smart way. Horford likes to take long-range 2-pointers, usually the most inefficient shots in basketball. But rather than forcing him to change or limit his game, Atlanta has focused on getting him open. Nearly 40 percent of Horford's attempts are coming from 16 feet from the basket out to the 3-point arc, according to Basketball-Reference.com -- but that's OK because he's sinking 50 percent of those shots. Another example: Because they position so well, the Hawks are outstanding on transition defense, limiting opponents to just 9.2 fast-break points per game, the fewest in the league, according to TeamRankings.com.
Atlanta, in short, is operating creatively within the discipline of a whole new system. You can see it in the numbers. And if you have the chance to see them in person, do as the Hawks do: Show no hesitation.
Steve Koonin @SteveKoonin
Tonight's game vs Clippers is almost sold out! You'll want to be in the building #ATL. Come early, these @ATLHawks deserve a hero's welcome!
Through the first two months of the season, the Atlanta Hawks have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA. Almost nothing went right for them in the offseason - they dumped Lou Williams for nothing, their GM got caught bad mouthing a player's ethnic backgrounds and their owner decided to sell the team in the aftermath of the scandal. They were expected to be a fringe playoff contender, not one of the teams competing for homecourt advantage.
The Hawks were not a good team last season, but that was mostly because of an injury to Al Horford, who played in only 29 games after tearing a muscle in his shoulder. Before the injury, Horford’s numbers were off the charts in his first season in Mike Budenholzer’s offense - 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 blocks and 0.9 steals on 57% shooting. With Horford in the line-up over the last two years, the Hawks have been a really good team.
Horford is a perfect fit in Atlanta - an anonymous superstar in one of the most anonymous organizations in the NBA. He has made the playoffs in each of his seven seasons in the league, a mark that would have gotten him much more notice if he had played for almost any other franchise. Horford is the glue that makes everyone around him better, an extremely versatile big man with a complete skill-set who can impact the game on offense and defense.
Even in college, he didn’t get much publicity, overshadowed by the far more flamboyant Joakim Noah. However, their two championships at Florida were as much Horford’s as Noah’s, the product of the special chemistry between the two future All-Stars. When a college team has two 6’10+ guys who can defend out to the three-point line, score with their back to the basket and create shots for their teammates, they are going to be awfully hard to beat.
Noah got most of the awards, but Horford ended up being drafted higher, going No. 3 overall to Atlanta in the 2007 Draft, the same year as Kevin Durant and Greg Oden. The Hawks, with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith already in the fold, were ready to win immediately. That season, they won 38 games and took the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics to seven games in the first round. From there, they quickly became one of the best teams in the East.
Atlanta never made it to a Conference Finals, but they never got enough credit for how talented they were. From 2008-2011, they won an average of 48 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs three times. A lot of franchises would kill for a run like that. They sent Dwyane Wade and Dwight Howard home - any team with Al Horford as the third option and Jeff Teague as the fourth option had the firepower to compete at the highest level.
While Horford was one of the cornerstones of the team, he didn’t get the chance to have much offense run through him. In his first five seasons in the league, he never had a usage rating above 20. He made his name as a hyper-efficient role player, scoring from the perimeter, moving the ball out of the post and finishing around the rim. His limited offensive role, meanwhile, prevented him from being recognized as one of the best PF’s in the NBA.
Things began to change three years ago, when they moved Joe Johnson for nothing to the Brooklyn Nets. Horford took advantage of the opportunity to expand his game, averaging career-high numbers across the board - 17.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.1 blocks on 54% shooting. The Hawks let Josh Smith walk the next season, in effect turning over the franchise to Horford, who has thrived in the role as the best player on the team.
Atlanta plays a balanced starting 5 that meshes well together - Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Horford - but Horford is really the key to the whole operation. At 6’10 245 with a 7’1 wingspan, his ability to slide over from his natural PF position and play as a small-ball C is what allows Atlanta’s guards to play in the maximum amount of space. The Hawks play true five-out basketball, which is almost impossible to defend.
“In my mind, this is the most underrated team in basketball and the most underrated coach in basketball,” Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said before losing to the Hawks on Monday. “Right now, with the way everyone’s playing, this is a team that could realistically be coming out of the East in the playoffs. They’re playing that well.”
It’s a max space configuration, with as many as five players spread out along the three-point line at a given time in a possession. There are acres of space in the half-court behind Horford and Millsap, who can both stretch the floor and run offense out of the high post. The defense is stretched to the breaking point, which creates a ton of driving lanes for guys like Teague, Korver and Dennis Schroeder, all of whom are playing the best ball of their careers.
Horford’s lack of size means he’s not an ideal fit for the C position on defense, but he can play it credibly enough that it allows the Hawks to take advantage of his speed, skill and shooting from that position on the offensive end of the floor. Atlanta’s opponents have an offensive rating of 106.8 when he is on the floor and 98.6 when he is off the floor, but the Hawks eye-popping offensive rating with him out there - 111.7 - more than makes up for it.
In many ways, Horford is a similar player to Chris Bosh, another natural PF whose made a career of being an undersized C in the East. And while Bosh is a more polished scorer, Horford is a better passer and a more all-around defensive player. He’s a better shot-blocker and he’s a little more physically equipped to play defense as a C, with the size to defend the post, the quickness to defend out on the perimeter and the athletic ability to play above the rim.
Horford is a complete player with no holes in his game, which makes it easy to put a team around him. He was paired with Josh Smith for most of his career and he covered up a lot of the holes in Smith’s game. His ability to step out and make a perimeter jumper opened up driving lanes for Smith and his ability to catch and finish in traffic made it easy for Smith to rack up assists. On defense, Horford guarded the bigger man and allowed Smith to roam.
His ability to guard bigger men is really what separates him from a lot of his peers at the PF position. Horford has the size to match up fairly well with the C’s in the other contenders out East - Joakim Noah, Marcin Gortat, Anderson Varejao and Jonas Valanciunas - which gives Atlanta a huge edge on the other end of the floor, where they really struggle with Horford’s foot-speed. His ability to win his match-up gives them a chance against anyone.
That was made crystal clear in their game in Cleveland last week, when the Hawks ran the Cavs out of their on building. Cleveland’s big men had absolutely no answer for Horford and Millsap, who combined to shoot 17-25. They could score any which way on the Cavs, whether it was posting up, facing up or putting their big men in the pick-and-roll. Cleveland just didn’t have the personnel to match up with big men as fast, athletic and skilled as Atlanta’s.
If the two teams end up meeting in the playoffs, that could be a real problem for the recently constructed juggernaut in Cleveland. Coming into the season, very few people would have said Al Horford was a better basketball player than Kevin Love, yet if you look at it, he’s providing much more value to the Hawks than Love is to the Cavs. Horford can survive on defense as a small-ball C - Love might not be able to survive on defense while playing as a PF.
If those two guys have to guard each other in a seven-game series, Horford has a much better chance of defending Love than Love has of defending him. That’s not the be-all end-all when it comes to determining which player is better, but it is pretty important, much more than our collective emphasis on guys individual stats would make it seem. If the Cavs and the Hawks end up facing each other in the playoffs, there won’t be anything more important.
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