I Got Werk
Pro
RESERVES
THABO SEFOLOSHA, SG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 9.8 5.3 2.2 .446 1.3
Scouting report + Long 3-and-D specialist who suddenly could only bring the D part. + Never gets to the line. Doesn't create for others. Limited offensive player. + Conservative defender who locks up opponents but never fouls.
Analysis Sefolosha didn't pick a good time to hit the market. After a career year in 2012-13, the 2-guard's jump shot bottomed out last season, compromising much of his value to the Thunder. After two straight lights-out shooting campaigns in Oklahoma City, Sefolosha shot just 31.6 percent from deep last season, and the Thunder let him pack his bags for Atlanta.
It's easy to forget that Sefolosha wasn't a great 3-point shooter until recently. Through his first five seasons in the NBA he shot just 30.4 percent from beyond the arc, which isn't inspiring for Atlanta fans hoping he bounces back in Mike Budenholzer's system. Over 55 percent of his 3s came from the corners, but he hit just 33.7 percent of them, down from his 46.2 percent conversation rate in 2012-13.
Sefolosha hasn't quite reached Tony Allen levels yet, but his defensive chops are right up there with the best at his position. His defensive RPM ranked fifth among 2-guards even though he rarely puts a dent in the box score. His long arms allow him to switch to 3s on occasion, which will help relieve Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll from doing all the hard work on that end. The Swiss guard should provide depth at a fairly decent price of $12 million over three years.
DENNIS SCHRODER, PG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 14.5 3.9 5.8 .324 -0.7
Scouting report + Raw, quick point guard still adjusting to NBA game. Horrid jump shot. + Overwhelmed by size. Disaster in transition. Turnover-prone. + Solid rebounder, but still learning to put long arms to use.
Analysis Maybe he's just a summer league All-Star? Once again Schroder took the Vegas Summer League by storm, but we're hoping it's not a mirage like it was last season.
Schroder wasn't an NBA player last season. At just 20 years old, the German point guard was woefully overmatched in his rookie season and probably should have spent the year in the D-League.
Worst Players By Real Plus-Minus In 2013-14 Player Team OPM DPM RPM Elliot Williams PHI -5.3 -3.1 -8.4 Dennis Schroder ATL -3.3 -5.0 -8.3 Byron Mullens LAC/PHI -2.8 -5.3 -8.1 Donald Sloan IND -3.9 -3.9 -7.8 Marquis Teague CHI/BKN -4.3 -2.4 -6.7 Case in point: On a per-possession basis, Schroder put up the second-lowest real plus-minus in the NBA, just behind Elliot Williams, who essentially played for a D-League team in Philly. Schroder turned the ball over on 24 percent of his transition opportunities, according to Synergy, and ranked as one of the least efficient players in the NBA. The silver lining is that he was one of the league's youngest players, so he has plenty of time to turn it around.
Schroder should follow John Wooden's timeless advice to "be quick, but don't hurry." He was simply out of control as a rookie. His 6-foot-8 wingspan hasn't translated into results, either; he failed to block a shot in 591 minutes last season and barely picked up a steal. International players tend to see big gains in their sophomore seasons, but, really, Schroder has nowhere to go but up. He's Shelvin Mack insurance at this point.
PERO ANTIC, C Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 14.3 9.4 2.4 .466 1.0
Scouting report + Bruising big man who loves shooting 3s and setting hard screens. + Plays close to the ground. Not a shot-blocker. Impenetrable beard. + Good passer. Smashed into playoff wall.
Analysis The pride of Macedonia came out of nowhere and delivered perhaps the greatest display of shooting futility in postseason history. With Horford hurt, the 32-year-old was thrust into a starting role in the playoffs and promptly clanked his way to 7-for-42 shooting from the field. That's 16.7 percent. He shot 3-for-25 on 3s and 4-for-17 on 2s. According to Basketball-Reference.com, only Mickey Rottner and Irv Torgoff (I promise I did not make these names up) have shot worse in the playoffs with at least 40 attempts. They both played in the Basketball Association of America (BAA) in 1946-47.
Even though Antic completely ran out of gas, he didn't have a care in the world. The Hawks actually didn't mind, either. Despite all the misses, Antic gave the Indiana Pacers fits with his floor-spacing because he drew Roy Hibbert out of the paint. All told, the Hawks actually outscored the Pacers by 29 points with Antic on the floor.
Antic isn't a great 3-point shooter, but he's built like a bull so he can make up for it elsewhere. Despite zero hops, he's a good rebounder and limited opponents to just 49.3 percent shooting inside 5 feet when he was nearby, according to SportVU. He goes all out all the time and provides some heady play to help stabilize the Hawks. He doesn't rack up a ton of assists, but he's often the guy Coach Bud chooses to make the inbound pass out of timeouts in late-game possessions.
Antic is a fan favorite, but at 32, his time in the NBA may be short-lived.
SHELVIN MACK, PG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 14.8 4.2 6.9 .467 1.6
Scouting report + Shifty point guard who runs a solid pick-and-roll. Not pure passer. + Developed a dependable jumper in middle of floor. Shies from contact. + Great rebounder for size. Not a particularly feisty defender, but solid.
Analysis Solid, solid, solid. Mack is just a solid backup point guard who doesn't do anything extremely well but does everything passably well. He bounced around the league a bit before he landed a gig with the Hawks, with whom he secured a three-year deal this summer following a strong postseason performance.
The Butler product is not the quickest point guard, but he nimbly gets into crevices and can score at the rim. The issue is that he never draws fouls. He posted one of the lowest free throw rates at his position despite getting to the basket at a fairly high rate. Instead, he sticks mostly to the perimeter, where he shot 38.4 percent on long 2s and 33.7 percent on 3s. Not superb, but serviceable.
He's a bit undersized at 6-foot-3, so you'd like to see him create more turnovers on the defensive end, but he's fairly pesky on the ball and pulls down a bunch of boards. Mack won't add much to the table, but he won't take much away, either. He'll back up Teague and give the Hawks a reliable source of playmaking. Solid.
KENT BAZEMORE, SG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 15.5 4.2 3.1 .367 -0.5
Scouting report + Lefty defensive specialist with freakishly long arms. Good athlete. + Best skill may be bench celebrations. Unproven 3-point shooter. Solid rebounder. + Will have to prove he's not a D'Antoni fluke. Not a floor general.
Analysis Nothing like a stint with a Mike D'Antoni club to rejuvenate your career. A fringe NBA player before he was traded from the Warriors to the Lakers midseason for Steve Blake, Bazemore finally got his chance to prove he can stick it in this league. He parlayed that opportunity into a deal with Atlanta that he probably otherwise would have never seen sitting on Golden State's bench.
Bazemore has ladders for arms and a nice-looking jumper, but the results hadn't gone his way until he got to play D'Antoni ball. In Los Angeles, he was decent from beyond the arc (.336) and played with a bit more freedom knowing that the Lakers weren't competing for anything of value. He's a combo guard who can't run an offense, but it's worth pointing out that he played his best ball in an up-tempo offense. Golden State's slow-it-up, iso-heavy offense was just a bad fit for Bazemore's game.
Real-plus minus isn't impressed with his offensive skills, projecting the 25-year-old to be 3.9 points per 100 possessions worse than average on that end, and his defense, while promising, isn't good enough to warrant the long-limbed pest a big role. Still, Bazemore should provide solid depth for a team like Atlanta, which plays about as close to D'Antoni ball as any East team.
THABO SEFOLOSHA, SG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 9.8 5.3 2.2 .446 1.3
Scouting report + Long 3-and-D specialist who suddenly could only bring the D part. + Never gets to the line. Doesn't create for others. Limited offensive player. + Conservative defender who locks up opponents but never fouls.
Analysis Sefolosha didn't pick a good time to hit the market. After a career year in 2012-13, the 2-guard's jump shot bottomed out last season, compromising much of his value to the Thunder. After two straight lights-out shooting campaigns in Oklahoma City, Sefolosha shot just 31.6 percent from deep last season, and the Thunder let him pack his bags for Atlanta.
It's easy to forget that Sefolosha wasn't a great 3-point shooter until recently. Through his first five seasons in the NBA he shot just 30.4 percent from beyond the arc, which isn't inspiring for Atlanta fans hoping he bounces back in Mike Budenholzer's system. Over 55 percent of his 3s came from the corners, but he hit just 33.7 percent of them, down from his 46.2 percent conversation rate in 2012-13.
Sefolosha hasn't quite reached Tony Allen levels yet, but his defensive chops are right up there with the best at his position. His defensive RPM ranked fifth among 2-guards even though he rarely puts a dent in the box score. His long arms allow him to switch to 3s on occasion, which will help relieve Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll from doing all the hard work on that end. The Swiss guard should provide depth at a fairly decent price of $12 million over three years.
DENNIS SCHRODER, PG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 14.5 3.9 5.8 .324 -0.7
Scouting report + Raw, quick point guard still adjusting to NBA game. Horrid jump shot. + Overwhelmed by size. Disaster in transition. Turnover-prone. + Solid rebounder, but still learning to put long arms to use.
Analysis Maybe he's just a summer league All-Star? Once again Schroder took the Vegas Summer League by storm, but we're hoping it's not a mirage like it was last season.
Schroder wasn't an NBA player last season. At just 20 years old, the German point guard was woefully overmatched in his rookie season and probably should have spent the year in the D-League.
Worst Players By Real Plus-Minus In 2013-14 Player Team OPM DPM RPM Elliot Williams PHI -5.3 -3.1 -8.4 Dennis Schroder ATL -3.3 -5.0 -8.3 Byron Mullens LAC/PHI -2.8 -5.3 -8.1 Donald Sloan IND -3.9 -3.9 -7.8 Marquis Teague CHI/BKN -4.3 -2.4 -6.7 Case in point: On a per-possession basis, Schroder put up the second-lowest real plus-minus in the NBA, just behind Elliot Williams, who essentially played for a D-League team in Philly. Schroder turned the ball over on 24 percent of his transition opportunities, according to Synergy, and ranked as one of the least efficient players in the NBA. The silver lining is that he was one of the league's youngest players, so he has plenty of time to turn it around.
Schroder should follow John Wooden's timeless advice to "be quick, but don't hurry." He was simply out of control as a rookie. His 6-foot-8 wingspan hasn't translated into results, either; he failed to block a shot in 591 minutes last season and barely picked up a steal. International players tend to see big gains in their sophomore seasons, but, really, Schroder has nowhere to go but up. He's Shelvin Mack insurance at this point.
PERO ANTIC, C Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 14.3 9.4 2.4 .466 1.0
Scouting report + Bruising big man who loves shooting 3s and setting hard screens. + Plays close to the ground. Not a shot-blocker. Impenetrable beard. + Good passer. Smashed into playoff wall.
Analysis The pride of Macedonia came out of nowhere and delivered perhaps the greatest display of shooting futility in postseason history. With Horford hurt, the 32-year-old was thrust into a starting role in the playoffs and promptly clanked his way to 7-for-42 shooting from the field. That's 16.7 percent. He shot 3-for-25 on 3s and 4-for-17 on 2s. According to Basketball-Reference.com, only Mickey Rottner and Irv Torgoff (I promise I did not make these names up) have shot worse in the playoffs with at least 40 attempts. They both played in the Basketball Association of America (BAA) in 1946-47.
Even though Antic completely ran out of gas, he didn't have a care in the world. The Hawks actually didn't mind, either. Despite all the misses, Antic gave the Indiana Pacers fits with his floor-spacing because he drew Roy Hibbert out of the paint. All told, the Hawks actually outscored the Pacers by 29 points with Antic on the floor.
Antic isn't a great 3-point shooter, but he's built like a bull so he can make up for it elsewhere. Despite zero hops, he's a good rebounder and limited opponents to just 49.3 percent shooting inside 5 feet when he was nearby, according to SportVU. He goes all out all the time and provides some heady play to help stabilize the Hawks. He doesn't rack up a ton of assists, but he's often the guy Coach Bud chooses to make the inbound pass out of timeouts in late-game possessions.
Antic is a fan favorite, but at 32, his time in the NBA may be short-lived.
SHELVIN MACK, PG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 14.8 4.2 6.9 .467 1.6
Scouting report + Shifty point guard who runs a solid pick-and-roll. Not pure passer. + Developed a dependable jumper in middle of floor. Shies from contact. + Great rebounder for size. Not a particularly feisty defender, but solid.
Analysis Solid, solid, solid. Mack is just a solid backup point guard who doesn't do anything extremely well but does everything passably well. He bounced around the league a bit before he landed a gig with the Hawks, with whom he secured a three-year deal this summer following a strong postseason performance.
The Butler product is not the quickest point guard, but he nimbly gets into crevices and can score at the rim. The issue is that he never draws fouls. He posted one of the lowest free throw rates at his position despite getting to the basket at a fairly high rate. Instead, he sticks mostly to the perimeter, where he shot 38.4 percent on long 2s and 33.7 percent on 3s. Not superb, but serviceable.
He's a bit undersized at 6-foot-3, so you'd like to see him create more turnovers on the defensive end, but he's fairly pesky on the ball and pulls down a bunch of boards. Mack won't add much to the table, but he won't take much away, either. He'll back up Teague and give the Hawks a reliable source of playmaking. Solid.
KENT BAZEMORE, SG Pelton's 2014-15 Projections P/36 R/36 A/36 WIN % WARP Player card » 15.5 4.2 3.1 .367 -0.5
Scouting report + Lefty defensive specialist with freakishly long arms. Good athlete. + Best skill may be bench celebrations. Unproven 3-point shooter. Solid rebounder. + Will have to prove he's not a D'Antoni fluke. Not a floor general.
Analysis Nothing like a stint with a Mike D'Antoni club to rejuvenate your career. A fringe NBA player before he was traded from the Warriors to the Lakers midseason for Steve Blake, Bazemore finally got his chance to prove he can stick it in this league. He parlayed that opportunity into a deal with Atlanta that he probably otherwise would have never seen sitting on Golden State's bench.
Bazemore has ladders for arms and a nice-looking jumper, but the results hadn't gone his way until he got to play D'Antoni ball. In Los Angeles, he was decent from beyond the arc (.336) and played with a bit more freedom knowing that the Lakers weren't competing for anything of value. He's a combo guard who can't run an offense, but it's worth pointing out that he played his best ball in an up-tempo offense. Golden State's slow-it-up, iso-heavy offense was just a bad fit for Bazemore's game.
Real-plus minus isn't impressed with his offensive skills, projecting the 25-year-old to be 3.9 points per 100 possessions worse than average on that end, and his defense, while promising, isn't good enough to warrant the long-limbed pest a big role. Still, Bazemore should provide solid depth for a team like Atlanta, which plays about as close to D'Antoni ball as any East team.
Even if we limit the sample to two-year players, Jenkins is still the most steal-averse player on record. In the eternal struggle to find out who stole the cookies from the cookie jar, you can safely strike Jenkins' name off the list.
