Picking the All-Star reserves Love, Lillard and lots of Hawks among players deserving nonstarter nod Originally Published: January 26, 2015 By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
The Hawks are loaded with deserving All-Stars, such as Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap.
After the starting lineups for the 2015 NBA All-Star Game were revealed last week based on the results of fan voting, head coaches will submit their choices this week for reserves in each conference.
They're asked to vote for two backcourt players, three frontcourt players and two wild-card spots from any position. Following those rules and utilizing advanced stats, including my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric and ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), here are my choices for All-Star reserves.
East backcourt
Jimmy Butler | Chicago Bulls Jeff Teague | Atlanta Hawks
Despite a recent slump, Butler has established himself as one of the league's top 10 to 15 players this season, unexpectedly developing into a go-to scorer with the ability to create his own shot. The additional offensive burden, in combination with his heavy minutes load, has taken a bit of a toll on his defense. Still, value systems reward him for durability, and he ranks eighth in the league in WARP. Teague is aptly described as the engine behind the Hawks' rise to the top of the Eastern Conference. He's unquestionably one of the conference's three best point guards and a deserving first-time All-Star.
East frontcourt
Al Horford | Atlanta Hawks Kevin Love | Cleveland Cavaliers Paul Millsap | Atlanta Hawks
Two more Hawks get the nod in the frontcourt. Millsap is the easiest pick, having repeated last season's performance that earned him his first trip to the All-Star Game. Horford hasn't played quite as well, in part because he had to shake off the rust early in the season, but no East frontcourt player outperforms him at both ends.
Love has been maligned all season for his poor defense and difficulty fitting in with the Cavaliers. Yet he is still tops among East frontcourt players in WARP, and it's harder than you might think to find evidence that Love is the biggest problem with the Cleveland defense. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Cavaliers allow fewer points per possession with Love on the court than any of their other big men.
East wild cards
Kyle Korver | Atlanta Hawks Kyrie Irving | Cleveland Cavaliers
While Kevin Love hasn't exactly flourished in Cleveland, he's played well enough to earn an All-Star spot. RPM actually rates Korver just behind Millsap as the Hawks' second-best player, and one of the 10 most valuable in the league. He's on pace for an unprecedented 50-50-90 season (FG%-3FG%-FT%), and those stats don't tell the full story of how Korver's gravity creates space for his teammates. He's an underrated defender and he deserves to be Atlanta's fourth All-Star this season.
The last spot in the East could go to any of a handful of point guards (Kemba Walker, Brandon Knight and Brandon Jennings pre-Achilles injury were all in the mix); either of Miami's aging stars (Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade); or to box-score-stuffing big men with defensive limitations (Andre Drummond and Nikola Vucevic). Ultimately, I gave the nod to Irving, who's been as effective as the other score-first point guards and is likely to play better during the second half.
West backcourt
James Harden | Houston Rockets Chris Paul | Los Angeles Clippers
Harden has been, at minimum, one of the league's three most valuable players this season. He's the best of an extraordinarily deep pool of West guard reserves. It's easy to take Paul for granted as a new generation of star point guards rises up, but he's fourth in WARP and third in RPM, so I'd take him second of the group.
West frontcourt
DeMarcus Cousins | Sacramento Kings Tim Duncan | San Antonio Spurs Kevin Durant | Oklahoma City Thunder
Neither illness nor coaching change (and associated sulking) should keep Cousins from making his first trip to the All-Star Game. His RPM ranks eighth in the league, and Cousins is in the top 15 in WARP. The best West frontcourt reserve by RPM is Duncan, who continues to enjoy one of the best seasons ever for a player his age (38). He's a no-brainer.
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Picking Durant ultimately comes down to my opinion that the All-Star Game should feature the best players in the league, not the players who have the best first half. The timing of Durant's injuries doesn't make him any less of an All-Star than he would be if they happened in March and April. When healthy, Durant has been as effective as anyone in the NBA. He's an All-Star.
The choice would have been relatively easy had thumb surgery forced LaMarcus Aldridge to miss the game, allowing Durant to be selected as his replacement. With Aldridge playing on, West coaches face a more difficult choice. Aldridge is playing at a similar level to past All-Star campaigns; Cousins and Duncan have simply been better.
West wild cards
Damian Lillard | Portland Trail Blazers Russell Westbrook | Oklahoma City Thunder
Lillard is the consensus third choice for West backup guard, ranking in that spot in both RPM and WARP behind Harden and Paul. Westbrook ranks fifth in WARP because of the time he missed due to injury, but he's likely to reach fourth by the All-Star break and could surpass Lillard by season's end because his play has been off the charts since he returned.
West injury replacement
Klay Thompson | Golden State Warriors
Presuming he misses the All-Star Game, Kobe Bryant's injury saves a tough choice on Thompson. Even before Friday's historic 37-point quarter against the Sacramento Kings, Thompson was clearly a deserving All-Star. Unfortunately, he plays in a conference with more deserving All-Stars than available reserve spots, particularly in the backcourt. That also applies to Mike Conley of the Memphis Grizzlies, who would be an easy choice in the East but gets squeezed off my West roster.
News and notes
• Friday's Insider Daily, projecting Portland's future without Aldridge, was quickly rendered meaningless by his decision to play through a torn ligament in his left thumb. Add in the Blazers' win over the Washington Wizards on Saturday night and a pair of Oklahoma City losses and suddenly the future again looks rosy in the Rose City.
As a contrast to Friday's projection, with a healthy Aldridge, Portland wins an average of 53 games in 1,000 simulations of the remainder of the season. The Blazers claim the Northwest Division title 87 percent of the time. There is still a realistic chance that Portland finishes with a worse record than the West's fifth seed (currently the Clippers, 1.5 games back) and does not have home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs; the Blazers earn home court in the first round in 56 percent of simulations.
• The day after Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings was lost for the season with a ruptured Achilles, D.J. Augustin scored a career-high 35 points and handed out eight assists as Jennings' replacement in the starting lineup Sunday night at Toronto. While Augustin won't keep up that pace, there's reason to believe he'll be more effective as a starter than he has been as a reserve so far this season.
• Over the last three years, spent primarily as a reserve, Augustin has started 14 games. In those starts, he's made 44.7 percent of his 2-point attempts and 44.4 percent of his 3s, as compared to 41.7 percent and 35.5 percent as a reserve, respectively. Augustin's true shooting percentage jumps from .535 as a reserve to .617 as a starter. Splits happen, and that small sample of starts probably overstates Augustin's true ability. Still, he appears to perform better with heavy minutes, something he also got in a reserve role during his effective 2013-14 stint with the Chicago Bulls. That could make Augustin a useful fantasy player the remainder of the campaign.
• ESPN's Tim McMahon and Marc Stein reported Sunday night that the Dallas Mavericks are confident they will eventually sign veteran center Jermaine O'Neal, who sat out the first half of the season. The Mavericks have been searching for a backup center since dealing Brandan Wright to the Boston Celtics as part of the package for Rajon Rondo, cycling through Greg Smith and Charlie Villanueva before recently settling on rookie Dwight Powell.
Powell, who had 10 points and six boards in 15 minutes in Sunday's loss at New Orleans, has been a revelation for Dallas with his athleticism and high basketball IQ. However, the skinny Powell has been overmatched by physical centers, so playing him exclusively as a power forward would make sense if the Mavericks can add O'Neal.
• Weekly top five: best NFL/NBA namesakes
- James Jones (WR, Oakland Raiders; SF, Cleveland Cavaliers)
- Anthony Davis (OT, San Francisco 49ers; PF, New Orleans Pelicans)
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (C, 1969-89) and Karim Abdul-Jabbar (RB, 1996-2000)
- Larry Brown (CB, 1991-98; coach, 1977-2010)
- Steve Smith (WR, Baltimore Ravens; SG, 1991-2005)
Honorable mention: Jason Smith (OT, 2009-13; PF, New York Knicks), LeBron James (SF, Cleveland Cavaliers) and LaMichael James (RB, Miami Dolphins), Randy White (DE, 1975-88; PF, 1989-94)
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.
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