In the five swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) where TLP spent 80-85 percent of their resources, Wilson said that they moved the crossover Republican vote between 9 and 13 percent. Their goal was not to convert Trump voters or to fire up Democratic voters. Their goal was to block the Republican voters disenchanted with President Trump from voting for a Republican ticket. They wanted “the educated, suburban, college-educated voter to see the ad with the 300-pound white guy carrying the Confederate flag in one hand and an AR-15 in the other and think ‘if I vote for Trump, I’m with him.’”
Wilson stated in the interview that most people don’t realize that there are 30 counties (my emphasis) in the U.S. suburbs that make up about 40 percent of the overall vote in every presidential election. In these counties, the TLP ran three ads titled “Mourning in America,” “Memories,” and “Countdown.” These ads emphasized the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. and blamed its acceleration squarely on the lack of leadership from President Trump.
In Pennsylvania, the typical voter is 60 years old and older. The Lincoln Project accelerated the ads in counties outside Philadelphia and Pittsburgh for the last three and a half weeks prior to Election Day.
Over my career, I’ve spent a lot of time with ad agencies and marketers listening to their proposed strategies for brand awareness campaigns, direct to consumer marketing, B2B marketing, social media marketing, content marketing, etc. My interaction with politics has been limited to voting and meeting with my local, state, and national representatives every now and then.
In the two previous presidential elections, I was intrigued by the role that social media played in electing Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The TLP initiative was less about social media and more about old-fashioned media ads and solid market research.