I was explaining to my little bro who don't know much about politics that a good comparison is thinking about it like the nba:
Team Biden:
Must win 2 of their last 7 to clinch playoff berth (Presidency)
Need 42-40 Record , .520 Win Pct
Team Trump:
Must Win all 7 to clinch playoff berth (Presidency)
Need 35-47 Record, .420 Win Pct
Obviously you would say Biden has a better chance
Edit: Yeah I know the scenario don't make much sense but you get what I'm sayin
I don't see any scenario where he doesn't need WI, it's a must win IMO
Best Basketball Analogy I can think of, it would be the 99' New York Knicks for Trump/Republicans. Sure they made the Finals, but that's when Dolan (Trump) took over. Sure they made the ECF the next year, but then... the Knicks.