1. Cleveland Browns
*Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Cleveland has to take a quarterback. Has to. And a winless season means the Browns can pick whichever one they want. My evaluations on this quarterback class are
really close. I've gone back and forth a few times on
Josh Rosen,
Sam Darnold and Allen, but I just moved Allen up to my No. 1 quarterback. His numbers aren't impressive, I know. But the NFL is all about projection, and he has a high ceiling. Coaches want to work with the 6-foot-5 Allen because he has all of the tools.
I said last month that he is one of my favorite prospects in this class. The other top quarterbacks have warts, and there is no slam-dunk No. 1 prospect, which makes it a fun class. Scouts are looking forward to seeing Allen at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, next week, where he will work out with much better talent.
2. New York Giants
*Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Rosen is the top pure passer in this class. He looked better than Darnold when
UCLA and USC played late in the season. Rosen, however, has dealt with injuries the past two seasons, and there already have been
rumblings that he doesn't want to end up in Cleveland. There are some red flags. But some team is going to draft him high -- he has rare arm talent and has been much more secure with the ball than Darnold and Allen. The Giants could move into life after
Eli Manning with a new franchise quarterback.
3. Indianapolis Colts
Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
Indianapolis is in a good spot to take the best non-quarterback available, and the No. 1 pass-rusher in this class is Chubb. He has a tremendous motor and has been unblockable for two straight years. He has 46.5 tackles for loss since the beginning of the 2016 season. Chubb was the tone-setter for the Wolfpack, and coaches raved about him as a leader. The Colts ranked 31st in the league in sacks (25) this season, and Chubb is a great fit.
4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)
*Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
This is the pick acquired in the Texans' trade up for
Deshaun Watson last year. Cleveland has a new front office, and Barkley could be the best overall player in this class -- he's No. 1 on my Big Board. But how much do teams value running backs? We've seen in recent years that they can hit on backs in the top 10 (
Leonard Fournette,
Ezekiel Elliott,
Todd Gurley), but the Browns also have recent history missing on one (
Trent Richardson, though they later got a first-round pick in return for him). And there is always value in the middle rounds -- just look at
Kareem Hunt and
Alvin Kamara in 2017. Barkley is a big-time running back, and I think he'll be a top-10 pick. He is built for today's NFL as a do-it-all runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield.
5. Denver Broncos
*Sam Darnold, QB, USC
Denver sits in a pivotal spot in the draft. Will it take the third quarterback? Could it move down? There will be a ripple effect in the top 10. Either way, it looks like the Broncos are ready to move on from 2016 first-round pick
Paxton Lynch. Darnold had an up-and-down season and struggled with turnovers -- his 22 were tied for most in the FBS. Can he figure out the ball security? If he can get rid of the bad habits, he could be a special player. Darnold is an accurate, natural passer with high upside who still needs to tweak his mechanics. I believe in his talent long term, and I think John Elway would love to have him in Denver.
6. New York Jets
*Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama
Fitzpatrick is the top cornerback
and safety in this draft. He could play either position. He was primarily a safety at Alabama, but he covered receivers in the slot and on the outside, and he consistently made plays. New York took safeties with its top two picks last year (
Jamal Adams and
Marcus Maye), so Fitzpatrick would be a corner for the Jets, who have an opening with Morris Claiborne a free agent this offseason. This is another spot to watch for one of the top quarterbacks.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
*Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
The Bucs couldn't run the ball in 2017, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 90.6 yards per game. Was it the running backs, the offensive line or both? Nelson is a plug-and-play starter who would be an upgrade for almost every team. He's a dominant run-blocker at 6-foot-5, 330, who causes destruction at the point of attack. If Barkley falls a little bit, could the Bucs snag him at No. 7?
8. Chicago Bears
*Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
Chicago has to add weapons for
Mitchell Trubisky, and Ridley is the best receiver in this class by a mile. If the Bears can get a pass-catcher here -- and don't upgrade in free agency -- Ridley makes the most sense. If he had played in a better passing offense, he could have been a Biletnikoff winner. He's extremely talented.
9. San Francisco 49ers
*Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
The 49ers have a really solid young core on defense, but most of their top picks were spent on the front seven. They really need a top-tier cornerback. Ward is the top corner in this class -- if you consider Fitzpatrick to be a safety -- though I don't have as high a grade on him as I did for his former teammate
Marshon Lattimore, who went No. 11 last year and had a great rookie season in New Orleans. Ward flashed in 2016 and had a tremendous junior season.
10. Oakland Raiders
*Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia
Smith is the type of player new coach Jon Gruden loves. He's physical. He can get sideline to sideline in a hurry. He's a force in the middle. Smith was one of the best players on the field in the College Football Playoff National Championship, and he could slot into the middle of the Raiders' defense in place of
NaVorro Bowman, who's a free agent. Oakland also could target a pass-rusher to help
Khalil Mack & Co.
11. Miami Dolphins
Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Dolphins are a tough team to pick for because the roster has so many questions. What's going to happen with free agent
Jarvis Landry? Are they set long term at quarterback? Is there a No. 1 back on the team? And that's just offense. For now I'll go with McGlinchey, who is my top-ranked tackle in a solid class. There are five tackles who could go in the first round. He has played on the left and right sides and could be the immediate starter at right tackle for the Dolphins, who have
Laremy Tunsil slotted in on the blind side.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
*Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
Edmunds is another one of my favorite prospects. At 6-5, he doesn't have the typical frame of a middle linebacker, but he truly could play inside or outside -- he had 109 total tackles and 14 tackles for loss in 2017. If he ended up in Cincinnati under new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, he'd probably be an outside linebacker who could rush the passer on passing downs. I've said before that Edmunds has the most upside of any linebacker in this class.