Romney doesn't stand a chance against Obama.
Obama has no choice but to go negative, it's not like he can run on his policies.
Democrats are desperate and will be directing the most vicious, hate filled campaign in American history. Of course the uneducated rubes that make up their voter base will fall for it like they always do.
And Romney doesn't have any commanding lead in any states he was already behind in, I'm not sure what where you're getting that from. It doesn't matter too much though because Obama is a lock to win anyway. It's pretty sad that Romney is going obliterate Obama in ad cash and still lose.
There was a NBC poll last week giving Obama a 8 point lead in swing states and this week a CNN poll had Romney with a 7 point swing state lead.
And i don't think it is a lock that Obama wins especially not if something catastrophic happens in the fall like the economic crash did in 08.
It is still too early for victory dances for either side.
Romney won't be able to square the deal with the people and convince enough independent voters and that he's the guy they should vote for. What does he have to run on? He's all negatives. Nobody ever beats an incumbent just running on "Vote for me because the other guy sucks." That's why Kerry lost. It's the old "devil you know" adage.
I saw an ad yesterday if I didn't already strongly dislike Mitt the ad would do the trick
I think its the one a few people are talking about.What was it? I don't think I have seen a Mitt Romney ad since the Repub primary to be honest.
You are falling victim to the overanalytical, wonky beltway notion that undecided voters are actually making their decisions based on what number of jobs was added in a certain months or how much GDP is gaining. People care about swag, charisma, confidence, competence, personality, and vision. Obama has that. Romney does not...at all. I remember so many people thought Kerry was going to win and I never did for a second because he was an oak tree that talks. Matt Tiabbi said he had money on Bush the whole way. I remember he was asked did he think Kerry would win because of Iraq war going poorly, etc. and he was like "Nah, have you ever heard Kerry talk?"If the devil you know is sitting on unemployment hovering around 9% then said devil is never a lock for winning anything. And again I would advise against putting so much stock in polls and metrics from this far out where most people aren't paying attention or being involved in this election at all.
And Romney is running on Obama's record with the economy, that is all he has to run on to have a shot since this economy sucks dikk and the blame for it will always fall on the person sitting in the WH.
And if memory serves all Obama ran on was "the current president sucks, the guy I'm running against is a carbon copy of him so vote for me I'm new and shiny". Despite all the up with people posters and Hope and Change slogans, Obama ran an almost entirely negative campaign against GW Bush to beat John McCain and become president. Pointing out how the other guy sucks while being vague as hell about how you plan on fixing things is a tried and true game plan to increasing ones odds of becoming president. That is what Obama did in '08 and it is what Romney will do this year.
You are falling victim to the overanalytical, wonky beltway notion that undecided voters are actually making their decisions based on what number of jobs was added in a certain months or how much GDP is gaining. People care about swag, charisma, confidence, competence, personality, and vision. Obama has that. Romney does not...at all. I remember so many people thought Kerry was going to win and I never did for a second because he was an oak tree that talks. Matt Tiabbi said he had money on Bush the whole way. I remember he was asked did he think Kerry would win because of Iraq war going poorly, etc. and he was like "Nah, have you ever heard Kerry talk?"
Again, nobody ever beats a sitting President based on "he sucks, vote for me." I'm not sure why you're mentioning 08 because Obama wasn't running against a sitting President, he was running against McCain. He successfully tied McCain to Bush, but he also convinced people that he was the guy that could change things. He make the positive case for himself. He garnered tremendous enthusiasm and had legions of sycophantic stans.
What has or can Romney do to convince anybody that he's presidential? Nothing. He's a dislikeable plastic mannequin Gordon Gekko with Cayman Islands bank accounts that changes his opinions like an etch-a-etch that can't rally his base beyond a gag reflex, nose-holding "anybody but Obama vote" and he can't square the deal with independents. He's one of the worst presidential nominees of all time.
Romney cannot and will not win, period. I'd bet my house on it. Everyone paying attention already knows this. Nate Silver gives Obama 67% chance of winning and that's very generous imo.
Now I agree with you that Romney is stiff but he isn't entirely unlikeable...he's too benign to get that worked up over regardless of how hard the Dems try to paint him as some type of boogeyman.
Yeah, but I was talking about why he got elected in 08. His swag was on a billion. Romney is trying to get elected now, and he cannot garner enthusiasm at all.And Obama's swag works with the people who already fell for it in 08. The fact that he is no longer a cypher and actually has a record that he has to defend puts a crimp in his awesomeness.
Obama would have probably lost to John McCain if the economic crash hadn't happened even though McCain was a terrible campaigner who picked a functioning retard as a running mate. He was carried to his election win by a shytty economy that got shyttier right before election day even more than the whole hope and change marketing gimmick.
And that is what those ever elusive independents that you are talking about look at. Independent/undecided voters don't give rat's ass about how cool a candidate is they are swayed by two things depending on the atmosphere of the country/world at the time: the economy and security. GW Bush had everyone snowed into thinking that without him at the helm we were all going to end up in turbans praying to Allah. Romney's mission is to try and convince those same voters that he is the guy who can fix the economy. If he can be convincing at that and the economy either stays stagnant or gets worse then this election becomes a horse race with neither side being considered a lock.
He ran a shytty campaign, but he never had a chance against Bush. Bush made the case that he was the guy who was gonna protect "Murkah" from "turrism." Kerry could never define himself for the people, that's why Bush was able to define him. Romney can't either, and Obama is defining him.Also Kerry didn't lose primarily because he was a nerd, he lost because he was and is a terrible politician who allowed himself to be outmaneuvered at every turn by the Bush team and be painted as a colossal p*ssy. American voters don't like pussies. Why do you think Obama has worked so hard at murdering brown people in the Middle East? Its so he can't be painted as a bytch on national security.