This is a very long article and it contains a lot of information so open the link to read the whole thing. Biden is leading Trump 50-48, even after the debate and Biden is ahead among likely voters. That probably explains why Trump and his allies are already claiming that the election will be stolen.
This caught my eye:
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
JULY 12, 20245:00 AM ET
HEARD ON MORNING EDITION
Domenico Montanaro
LISTEN· 3:41
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).
Still, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats, and national polls are far less important than in the most competitive states. A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states. They, in general, lean more conservative than the country at large because Democratic votes are concentrated on the coasts.
Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.
This caught my eye:
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
JULY 12, 20245:00 AM ET
HEARD ON MORNING EDITION
Domenico Montanaro
LISTEN· 3:41
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”
Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).
Still, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats, and national polls are far less important than in the most competitive states. A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states. They, in general, lean more conservative than the country at large because Democratic votes are concentrated on the coasts.
A race likely to be decided on the margins
Since the debate, on average, polls have shown Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a couple of weeks for public opinion to settle after a major political event — and the changes have been within the margin of error.Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.
