No thread on the protest in Iran right now?

intra vires

intra vires

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Rhakim said:
I 100% support the protesters but this. There's been multiple past occasions where the protests have amounted to little so it gets my hopes up slightly but I'm not hanging on it.

I think it's absolutely possible for a protest movement to succeed in Iran, but it has to be well-planned and organized, and these feel more spontaneous. Like the Arab Spring protesters found, spontaneous lightly-organized protests can find initial successes but then struggle to translate those victories into long-term change. You need an MLK Jr. or a Gandhi figure who can really see the big picture and plot serious long-term struggles if you're going to shift the dynamic in a systematic manner.
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I agree that these protests aren't organized enough to be something on the scale of the Iranian Revolution, but there are a lot of different sociopolitical variables involved this time that weren't present in previous protests. Who is protesting is also important, which is why the regime is so desperate to play up Amini's ethnicity and blame/attack Kurdish separatists. When you have clerics, conservatives, and people across the economic spectrum speaking out and/or protesting, then it's not a small problem. Maybe not this exact moment, but sustained protests like these can give rise to leadership that will be organized enough next time. And next time may come sooner than the regime thinks if/when these protests do subside.

Some domestic context, Iran recently had their lowest turnout presidential election since the revolution, while elections aren't free -- everyone running is regime approved even if they're in different factions (hardliners; moderates; reformers) -- they're typically "fair" enough that upsets and unexpected blowouts do happen. The reason for this was the hardliners controlling the Guardian Council barred legitimate candidates from other factions from running to ensure ultraconservative human rights violator and political dilettante jurist Ebrahim Raisi would become president. He's also seen as a possible successor to Khamenei, so his presidency is potentially a stepping stone to supreme leader (also how Khamenei succeeded Khomeini). Raisi challenged Rouhani in 2017 for the presidency and was soundly defeated (lost by 19 which was an unexpected margin). He didn't congratulate Rouhani, complained he lost because laws were violated, and then his faction made "adjustments" for the 2021 election.

In 2017, turnout in Iran was 73% and Raisi received 15,835,794 (38%) votes. In 2021, turnout was 48% and Raisi received 18,021,945 (72%) votes. You can see he isn't widely popular domestically and he couldn't significantly increase his number of votes despite being the only major name on the ballot. It could be argued that Iran's populace no longer has reason to trust the limited democratic means they've been given (reflected in turnout), so protesting is the natural conclusion.

Finally, a few months ago, Raisi called for stricter enforcement of the "Islamic dress code", which is a really dumb thing to do given how many fault lines (economy, handling of covid, etc.) exist in the country. Why encourage additional opportunities for conflict? There's obviously a lot more, but this post is already longer than intended.
 
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intra vires said:
I agree that these protests aren't organized enough to be something on the scale of the Iranian Revolution, but there are a lot of different sociopolitical variables involved this time that weren't present in previous protests. Who is protesting is also important, which is why the regime is so desperate to play up Amini's ethnicity and blame/attack Kurdish separatists. When you have clerics, conservatives, and people across the economic spectrum speaking out and/or protesting, then it's not a small problem. Maybe not this exact moment, but sustained protests like these can give rise to leadership that will be organized enough next time. And next time may come sooner than the regime thinks if/when these protests do subside.

Some domestic context, Iran recently had their lowest turnout presidential election since the revolution, while elections aren't free -- everyone running is regime approved even if they're in different factions (hardliners; moderates; reformers) -- they're typically "fair" enough that upsets and unexpected blowouts do happen. The reason for this was the hardliners controlling the Guardian Council barred legitimate candidates from other factions from running to ensure ultraconservative human rights violator and political dilettante jurist Ebrahim Raisi would become president. He's also seen as a possible successor to Khamenei, so his presidency is potentially a stepping stone to supreme leader (also how Khamenei succeeded Khomeini). Raisi challenged Rouhani in 2017 for the presidency and was soundly defeated (lost by 19 which was an unexpected margin). He didn't congratulate Rouhani, complained he lost because laws were violated, and then his faction made "adjustments" for the 2021 election.

In 2017, turnout in Iran was 73% and Raisi received 15,835,794 (38%) votes. In 2021, turnout was 48% and Raisi received 18,021,945 (72%) votes. You can see he isn't widely popular domestically and he couldn't significantly increase his number of votes despite being the only major name on the ballot. It could be argued that Iran's populace no longer has reason to trust the limited democratic means they've been given (reflected in turnout), so protesting is the natural conclusion.

Finally, a few months ago, Raisi called for stricter enforcement of the "Islamic dress code", which is a really dumb thing to do given how many fault lines (economy, handling of covid, etc.) exist in the country. Why encourage additional opportunities for conflict? There's obviously a lot more, but this post is already longer than intended.
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I‘m not an expert on the Iranian Revolution but in general there seems like a lot of pitfalls on the other side of this.

So many of these ME dictators are upholding each other that I can’t imagine the myriad of Iranian power players being allowed to be displaced. Russia being on the ropes is weirdly in the protestors favor right now but it’s highly possible to see how a Syria or Lebanon just allow Iran’s current regime to just fall without consequence.

Plus like Iraq and Afghanistan , setting up democratic structures in these highly theocratic societies is a minefield of historical beefs and religious grievances. And there’s no way America or any western government has the clout to come in as a fair player to help in any situation and there aren’t any role models in that area to allow it.

Anyone attempting to go in as head of Iran is now inheriting the IRGC and it’s many tentacles across the Middle East.

Even Iran as a headless state creates a clusterf__k in the meantim.

It was easier to remove a shah with a supreme leader than to cast off a whole system.
 
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I mean f'ck is it that hard to at least disband your morality police that are killing and sexually assaulting your women and girls

just at a bare minimum
 
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