No Land For Old QBs....Will THE Scarlet & Gray Bounce Byke? It's Up in the Air I'm just Sayin: 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes Thread

[MustafaSTL]

 

[MustafaSTL]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/60...tate-transfer-cfp/?source=user_shared_article

Wow, a year ago today Downs committed to OSU. Best decision he could have made.

 

[MustafaSTL]

National Championship game day! Buckeyes by 26.

 

[smitty22]

National Championship game day! Buckeyes by 26.

O-H

 

[Trav]

Gameday......

They had Riley Leonard lookin' like prime Justin Fields for a sec and Mitchell & Greathouse lookin' like Olave & JSN in the 1st half+ Evans lookin' like peak Brock Bowers

. Mfs dropped 14 on me 1st half but only went to score 3 more the 2nd half til some garbage time score with me in prevent cpl mins left in the 4th. Made sure they got behind early though wit a 28-14 half lead so they basically had to throw the rest of the way cuz Love was gashin' me @ first.

Emeka wit 8 for 145 and a tud



Smith wit 4 for 71 and a tud

Run game was on point. Had to do a lot of traps and duo cuz that zone wasn't poppin' obv. Def forced a cpl fumbles, even had another scoop & score

.

Needless to say....

Spoiler: Prediction

Gawdeyes by everything

O-H

Thee MF I-O

!

 

[Trav]

In the words of Goldberg....who's next

 

[MustafaSTL]

In the words of Goldberg....who's next

Modern day Mike Doss or Damon Moore

 

[Buckeye Fever]

Wife still ain't take all the Christmas stuff down yet. I decided to help her out and replace her Christmas throw

 

[Buckeye Fever]

O-H

I-O!!!!

 

[Ruck]

Wife still ain't take all the Christmas stuff down yet. I decided to help her out and replace her Christmas throw

I need dat

 

[Trav]

Wife still ain't take all the Christmas stuff down yet. I decided to help her out and replace her Christmas throw

1 of my Xmas gifts was a osu throw. Been rockin' it every playoff game . May it bring good fortune once more

 

[MustafaSTL]

 

[Trav]

Time for some game film watch. Even before watching this, I remember how much we targeted Emeka a lot. Offensively, they had a first round LT compared to a true freshman this year now that their LT is out (unless they do some moving around). Plus their offense is a lot different because of the two QBs. Threw the ball much better last year compared to now where Riley Leonard might not break 100 yards passing. Comparing last year, we are better at QB, RB, WR, DL, LB, and DB play. Stover at TE might be the only area we were better last year. ND not as good at QB and OL. Defensively I’m not sure for them, might be better mostly this year.

Right now….Buckeyes by 21.

- I miss Cade. I wish they got Gee more involved cuz I be spamming cuz on 25' lol.

- Good Lord at some of the throws from McCord in this game, even the ones he made. Thank the fuccin' Buckeye stars/leaves for Howard

- Somehow Treyveon might have gotten even better

- That mf Hartman was at least 40, show me the birth certificate

- Evans ain't no slouch even tho his #s ain't like last yr I think. Gotta watch dat foo. Still don't like how he was finding space in my open zones from my sim game this mornin

 

[Trav]

Sharp Football Analysis

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Best Bet Prediction:
Trust the Buckeyes offense to move at a pace Notre Dame can't keep up with and take Ohio State against the spread, but be sure to shop around as this line is dropping. It might even be worthwhile to wait in hopes it drops to seven points.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, current line: Ohio State -8.5
» Bet it now: Ohio State -8.5

When Ohio State is on Offense
Ohio State has leaned on the passing attack all season, but Chip Kelly has become significantly more aggressive in the postseason.

Check out the rate at which Will Howard threw 15 or more yards downfield during the regular season compared to his performance against Tennessee and Oregon:

Regular season: 20.3%, ranked 88th
vs. Michigan, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon: 16.9%
vs. Tennessee, Oregon: 30.9%
The Buckeyes' passing attack became more conservative again versus Texas 一 just 12% of throws at 15 or more yards downfield 一 but that likely was forced by the Longhorns’ scheme.

Texas lined up in two high safety coverages on 65% of Howard’s attempts outside the red zone, by far the highest rate Ohio State faced all year according to Sports Info Solutions.

Before that game, Ohio State had faced two high safety coverages 30% of the time on the year and never higher than 50%.

So did Texas lay out a blueprint Notre Dame can follow?

Probably not.

Notre Dame has only lined up in two high coverages 15% of the time this year, the nation’s fifth-lowest rate, and peaked at 29% against Georgia Tech.

The primary reason for this is the Irish’s tendency to play man coverage, which often leads to lower rates of two high looks.

According to Sports Info Solutions, no one uses man coverage more than Notre Dame (56%).

Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden will likely try to replicate what Texas did to a degree, but at this point in the season, it would be shocking if a team completely scrapped its typical game plan.

Earlier this season against Louisville 一 which had a talented wide receiver duo in Ja’Corey Brooks and Caulin Lacy 一 the Irish played a season-high rate of zone coverage (64%) and used two high coverages 21% of the time outside the red zone.

So the Irish are capable of adjusting, but those numbers are still far from Texas’ strategy against the Buckeyes (79% zone, 65% two high).

Assuming Notre Dame shows more single high looks, especially with man coverage, Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka are going to have one-on-one situations that Howard will try to exploit.

And who wins those battles will likely decide this game.

Take a look at the matchup on throws of 15 or more yards downfield, outside the red zone, based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

Howard: 63.5% completion rate, ranked first
Notre Dame: 28.6% completion rate allowed, ranked third
Notre Dame also has a 24% ball-hawk rate at that depth, ranked 21st.

That success is particularly impressive given the high rate of man coverage, which typically suppresses the defense’s ability to make plays on the ball.

Despite Notre Dame’s success downfield, it’s worth questioning whether this unit is really up for the challenge of stopping Ohio State.

Smith and Egbuka are arguably the best wide receiver duo in the country, and Notre Dame has not faced anything close to their talent level.

Louisville’s Brooks and Lacy might be the best duo the team has faced this year. They combined for 10 catches, 142 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Or maybe it was USC’s Makai Lemon and Zachariah Branch, who caught 13 passes for 178 yards.

Either way, it’s certainly notable that the only wide receiver duos who can even sniff Ohio State’s talent put up some solid numbers on the Irish.

Notre Dame’s ability to get pressure on Howard will also be a factor in this game, and it should be a good matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

Ohio State: ranked sixth in pressure rate allowed
Notre Dame: ranked 22nd in pressure rate generated
The Irish will be without leading pass-rusher Rylie Mills, who was injured against Indiana, but it’s unclear how much the team misses him.

The Irish generated an impressive 44% pressure rate against Georgia, but that number plummeted to 25% against Penn State, the team’s third-lowest mark of the year.

Ohio State’s offensive line is also banged up, playing without left tackle Josh Simmons and Rimington Award-winning center Seth McLaughlin. But the Buckeyes seem to have sorted things out.

Check out Ohio State’s pressure rate allowed in the playoffs, via Sports Info Solutions:

vs. Tennessee: 16% (Vols’ second-worst output)
vs. Oregon: 22% (Ducks’ fourth-worst output)
vs. Texas: 25% (Longhorns’ second-worst output)
If Notre Dame can slow down the passing attack and force the Buckeyes to run the ball, it should be a good battle in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

Ohio State: ranked 27th in yards before contact
Notre Dame: ranked 29th in yards before contact allowed
Ohio State: ranked 27th in yards after contact
Notre Dame: ranked 39th in yards after contact allowed
Despite those numbers, the run game still might favor Ohio State due to Kelly’s tendency to run the ball from spread formations.

Notre Dame’s defensive line has not been great against the run 一 the Irish rank 86th in early contact rate, hitting the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 37% of attempts.

The linebackers have helped mask that issue by rarely making mistakes at the second level and consistently plugging gaps. But when the offenses spread it out and there’s one less man in the box, things start to go wrong for the Irish.

Notre Dame is allowing 5.0 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked 49th per Sports Info Solutions.

That trend did not hurt them against Penn State, which runs from heavy formations and faces a stacked box 69% of the time (FBS average 49.6%). It also did not hurt against Georgia, which similarly faced a stacked box 64% of the time.

However, Ohio State’s spread offense has only allowed defenses to stack the box at a 44% rate. And when facing a light box, Buckeye ball carriers have been dangerous based on this data from Sports Info Solutions:

TreVeyon Henderson: 7.3 yards per attempt
Quinshon Judkins: 5.3 yards per attempt
Notre Dame’s somewhat inconsistent performance against the run, especially in terms of creating early contact and negative plays, has allowed opponents to avoid third-and-long.

The Irish only rank 43rd in third-and-long rate while the Buckeyes offense ranks fourth in third-and-long avoidance.

If that trend holds and Ohio State is consistently in manageable down-and-distance situations, the Buckeyes offense likely will do its usual damage.

 

[Trav]

Sharp Football Analysis

Cont.

When Notre Dame is on Offense
Notre Dame runs a balanced offense under coordinator Mike Denbrock, but it’s the rushing attack that sets the tone.

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, the run game battle should be a good one:

Notre Dame: ranked 14th in yards before contact
Ohio State: ranked first in yards before contact allowed
Notre Dame: ranked first in yards after contact
Ohio State: ranked 27th in yards after contact allowed
Due to Ohio State’s ability to create early contact, Jeremiyah Love will need to be at his best in this matchup.

Love ranks third in the country in broken/missed tackle rate and sixth in yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, so he is uniquely suited to attack this Buckeyes defense.

However, Love is also at less than full strength after suffering an injury against Georgia.

Backup Jadarian Price has been ineffective in the playoffs (2.9 yards per carry), but he still saw seven carries to Love’s 11 against Penn State 一 probably an indication that concerns remain about Love’s health.

How much Love heals in the days off before the championship game could have an impact on the result.

The critical matchup for Notre Dame’s offense will be Love against Ohio State’s stacked boxes.

According to Sports Info Solutions, opponents stack the box 62% of the time against the Irish, the 18th-highest rate, excluding the triple-option teams.

If that trend holds, it will lead to an interesting battle between Love and Ohio State’s defense:

Love: 8.2 yards per attempt versus stacked box, ranked first
Ohio State: 2.9 yards per attempt allowed with stacked box, ranked sixth
If Price continues to see carries, however, it could swing things in Ohio State’s favor.

Price is averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt against a stacked box, ranked 101st, including 1.7 yards per attempt in the playoffs, per Sports Info Solutions.

One of the reasons for Ohio State’s success against the run is the team’s discipline. The Buckeyes rarely leave open gaps at the line of scrimmage and rank fourth in the nation in rate of allowing three or more yards before contact.

Due to inconsistent offensive line play, Notre Dame’s offense ranks 107th in generating three or more yards before contact. And things could get worse due to the injury to left tackle Anthonie Knapp.

Take a look at the yards before contact per attempt averages when the Irish run to the gap of each of their primary offensive linemen, via Sports Info Solutions:

LT Anthonie Knapp: 4.8
LG Billy Schrauth: 2.5
C Pat Coogan: 2.1
RG Rocco Spindler: 2.0
RT Aamil Wagner: 1.8
The Irish have had far and away their most success running behind Knapp, but he will be replaced by either Tosh Baker or Charles Jagusah in this matchup.

That is likely to be a significant downgrade, though it is worth noting Jagusah is a highly regarded redshirt freshman who was expected to be the left tackle before a training camp injury.

He took his first snaps of the year on the offensive line against Penn State after making his season debut on special teams against Georgia.

Quarterback Riley Leonard will also play a role in the run game, and he might be able to provide a spark for the Irish offense on the ground.

Leonard was shut down against Penn State, averaging just 2.6 yards per attempt, excluding sacks.

However, Penn State ranks in the top 10 in opponent-adjusted yards allowed to quarterbacks. So a poor performance was expected.

Ohio State ranks 72nd by the same metric.

Since Leonard is not a dynamic athlete, his production on the ground has been closely linked to the defense’s performance against quarterbacks.

Penn State and Indiana both rank in the top 10 in opponent-adjusted yards allowed to quarterbacks, and both held Leonard to 4.0 yards per attempt or less.

Georgia, however, ranks 80th, and Leonard picked up 91 yards on 13 carries.

In the passing game, Leonard is likely to have more issues, especially without his left tackle.

Take a look at the opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions in the pass protection battle:

Notre Dame: ranked 51st in pressure rate allowed
Ohio State: ranked second in pressure rate generated
Fortunately, Leonard is effective at avoiding sacks (ranked 24th in sack avoidance), but Ohio State’s defense poses a unique challenge.

The Buckeyes rank eight in sack conversion rate, turning 28% of pressures into sacks. Take a look at where Notre Dame’s previous playoff opponents have ranked by that metric:

Penn State: 62nd
Georgia: 56th
Indiana: 79th
If Ohio State gains a significant lead at some point, Leonard will need to make some plays in the downfield passing game, which has not been a featured part of the Irish offense.

Outside the red zone, Notre Dame averages just 4.3 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield, the 10th-fewest attempts per Sports Info Solutions.

Leonard hasn’t been great on those throws either, ranking 46th with a 44% completion rate at that depth.

It’s not all Leonard’s fault, however, as he is playing without any legitimate downfield weapons. On throws of 15 or more yards, Irish receivers have a 67% catch rate on catchable targets, ranked 73rd.

From a big picture standpoint, the most critical area in which Notre Dame must excel is on first and second down.

Due to Leonard’s limited downfield passing ability, few teams are worse when playing in tough down-and-distance situations.

When facing seven or more yards to go on third down, Notre Dame has converted just 16 of 65 attempts (13.6%), the nation’s seventh-worst rate.

The Irish will have a tough time being competitive in this matchup if they can’t avoid those situations.

Final Thoughts on Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Best Bets
Although Notre Dame has plenty of talent, this looks like a bad matchup for the Irish in terms of the contrast of schemes 一 so take Ohio State against the spread.

Texas certainly demonstrated a way to slow down Ohio State’s elite downfield attack, but the Irish’s defensive scheme is just too fundamentally different from Texas to bet on Notre Dame following a similar game plan.

With more one-on-one opportunities, expect Ohio State’s offense to look more like it did against Oregon and Tennessee.