New NBA Media Deal: 11 years, $77B with Disney (ABC/ESPN), Comcast (NBC/Peacock), and Amazon. ESPN to license Inside the NBA

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Sports diehards and media watchers love studio shows, but the latest round of NBA broadcast rights negotiations shows a league risking worse “shoulder” programming in chase of the almighty dollar.

As the NBA readies a new package that will include first-time partner Amazon Prime Videoand the potential return of NBC, it risks losing longtime partner TNT Sports, which pairs games with the popular Inside the NBA. At the same time, the NBA reportedly already agreed to a deal with Disney that includes ABC broadcasting the NBA Finals. While ESPN invests a great deal in NBA coverage, its studio show is notoriously brief and shuffles its cast constantly.

New reports indicate a rival network could poach or share Inside the NBA if TNT Sports loses NBA rights, but the league can’t know its fate until negotiations are done.

As a result, it’s not hard to imagine a new NBA broadcast rights package that includes several first-time studio setups, the end of Inside the NBA in its current form, and the haphazard ESPN show front and center.

That signals one of two things: Either a lot of trust in their new partners or straight-up ambivalence.

First, consider the league’s thinking. Losing a viral moment machine like Inside without any clear substitute would seem like a killer for the NBA. However, it’s worth considering the thinking of Adam Silver and league owners here. Sports leagues don’t make money directly from studio programming. Networks make ad dollars on hungry viewers who tune in early and stay late after games. To the leagues, it’s more like free marketing.

At the same time, the commentary from studio analysts is less predictable than game broadcasts. While basketball fans may count Inside as one of their favorite things about tuning into TNT game nights, for every classic joke or enlightening breakdown, someone like Charles Barkley is just as likely to go viral for calling out the league or a player as he is for his Diet Coke addiction or disdain for the city of Galveston, Texas.

Beyond that, Silver has openly chided those who broadcast his league, calling for more “NFL-like” coverage, which is to say less lazy, narrative-based commentary. The NBA was always going to go with the highest bidder, but it’s possible that Silver’s opinions on current studio coverage infected the league’s approach to negotiations in some part. That’s not to say Silver dislikes Inside, but a refresh could be appealing to him and the league.

Certainly, bringing on Prime Video and NBC (should that deal go through) provides an opportunity for fresh faces. From national reporters to digital content creators to local announcers, basketball has a stuffed pipeline of talent. A league wouldn’t put a conference final on streaming (as the NBA reportedly will with Amazon) if the goal is traditionalism.

So there are pathways for the NBA to have its cake and eat it too when it comes to maximizing rights fees and maintaining strong promotion from studio shows and connected content.

That brings us to ESPN. We know the NBA previously exerted its influence over the worldwide leader, with longtime NBA Finals game analyst Mark Jackson the latest to allege his criticism over officiating led in part to his layofffrom ESPN last year. Rather than external meddling, internal changes have largely kept ESPN’s NBA Countdown from finding a groove. That, and potentially the shortest segments in the history of studio shows.

By placing its most valuable property, the Finals, on ABC, the NBA is losing out on making that product the best it can be. On Countdown, you don’t get “NFL-like” coverage or narrative chatter. You hardly get anything at all. It’s Stephen A. Smith turning every conversation back toward the Knicks and Michael Wilbon doing his usual schtick. But there is no indication the NBA has a problem with Countdown‘s brevity, lack of consistency, or focus on ad revenue.


Taken in whole, this new NBA rights package signals a broader step into the unknown. Studio coverage is just one element.

Detractors have already highlighted how moving a significant portion of games to Amazon will jeopardize the discoverability of the sport, especially for young people. Making it harder to find games creates avoidable barriers to fandom.

There is nothing wrong with the NBA’s focus on putting its games where fans are and will be and ensuring the friendliest announcers it can get. Yet the long-running success of Inside the NBA shows the potential for a studio show. You could make a case Barkley is the single greatest ambassador for the league over the past two decades. People want to watch Inside, which makes them care about and watch the games. The same can be said of Baseball Tonight in its heyday, Joe Rogan’s embrace of MMA on the biggest podcast in the world, or someone like Chris Berman for the NFL.


When it comes to the NFL, it got lucky with its move to Prime Video. The streamer spent big in its purchase on Thursday Night Football, adding recognizable personalities for the studio like Charissa Thompson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Tony Gonzalez. The NBA could luck out there.

But Barkley has openly worried that Ernie Johnson could leave Inside if TNT loses NBA rights. ESPN continues to twiddle its thumbs. New networks might cheap out.

To get the greatest possible rights fees, the NBA could be sacrificing the type of ambassadorship and promotion that fans love.
 

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Probably already been mentioned, but they are gonna have to start promoting these newer generational stars

CBS promoted Magic & Larry

NBC promoted MJ

ESPN promoted Leebronze first and foremost over all nba players...even when Kobe had more global appeal, but that's a convo for another day

I hope NBC & Amazon promote these young up & comers the way ESPN should but does not
 

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Turner’s 35-year run with the NBA appears to be teetering, after Comcast's NBCUniversal has reportedly bid $2.5B annually to form a possible broadcast triumvirate with ESPN and Amazon into the mid-2030s. A clause in Warner Bros. Discovery’s prior deal with the league gives them the right to match NBC’s offer, but -- because sources said the word “match” may be up to Commissioner Adam Silver’s interpretation and because WBD is only said to be worth $18B -- the company of Charles Barkley and Ernie Johnson could be priced out of the NBA.

NBC’s bid -- reported first by the Wall Street Journal -- has reverberated to the stock market, where WBD’s shares were down Tuesday to their lowest point in a year. Industry sources said WBD CEO David Zaslav is contemplating a major counteroffer, although one source said, “It would be hard to justify to his board to spend $2.5B [annually] for 10 years.”

Those same sources said NBC’s capability to reach 100 million homes and a window of two national games a week -- including possibly Saturday or Sunday night games once regular-season football is over in early January -- gives it a prohibitive advantage over WBD that Turner might not be able to match.

“The word ‘match’ doesn't always reference money,” said a source familiar with the negotiations. “What if NBC says, ‘Listen, we have all these RSNs, local NBA -- we'll pay and do something crazy on the local side for you.’ What can Turner counter with that? They don't have any RSNs. What does NBC have that Turner doesn’t? A broadcast network and RSN business. And a much bigger platform to market NBA GRPs [gross rating points], to market NBA properties: i.e., the Olympics. Super Bowls. The NFL. Big, big, big marketing platforms for the NBA. Just in GRPs alone, Turner couldn't match that.”

Existing relationships vs. big opportunity

Zaslav is saddled by WBD’s $40B debt and a perception that his company's future is not as bright as the streaming entities or ESPN and its impending direct-to-consumer product.

“It's going to come down to Adam Silver saying how important is NBC broadcast network versus my long-standing relationship with Warner Brothers and price,” said the industry source familiar with the negotiations. “Meaning, Warner Brothers is going to have to pay more to keep it. Meaning, if NBC is willing to pay $2.5B, and Turner is willing to pay $2.5B, they go with NBC. But if Turner says in order to offset what NBC is offering you -- because I can't offer you broadcast -- I'll pay you [more than $2.5B], then Adam Silver’s got to think is that extra money worth keeping the [‘Inside the NBA’] studio show together by an incumbent who he knows can do it? That's what's happening right now. And does Zaslav want to overpay for less?”

Turner’s dilemma, the source said, is perhaps bidding to become a reduced fourth NBA partner, with just the Thursday night package. That would leave Amazon possibly taking a weekly Tuesday night package, playoff games, League Pass and the WNBA; ESPN/ABC continuing its “A” package with the Finals and WNBA; NBC/Peacock taking playoff games and prime-time weekend regular-season games; an aggregate of them taking Play-in and In-Season Tournaments; and WBD keeping its most valuable asset of Barkley, Johnson, Kenny Smith and Shaquille O’Neal together in studio.

“That show is magic in a bottle,” a source said. “You get it once every two centuries. It’s like ‘Monday Night Football’ and Howard Cosell, Dandy Don and Frank. John Madden and Pat Summerall were probably another. Charles, Kenny, Shaq and EJ -- it's not something you can replicate.’’

As of now, the possible combined deals of Disney (close to $3B), NBC ($2.5B) and Amazon (likely over $2B) bring the 10-year total to roughly $72B, which had always seemed to be the NBA's goal. Turner has to decide whether it wants to be the fourth wheel -- or outbid NBC to be the third.

"They have to want it because you're basically out of a three-horse race, you’re in fourth place,” the industry source said. “Because if you close your eyes and you said, ‘In five years, who's going to be here' -- is Google going to be here in five years? Of course. Close your eyes. Amazon? Of course. Close your eyes. ESPN? Of course. Close your eyes. NBC Universal? Of course. Close your eyes, Warner Brothers? Hmm. Maybe not.”
 
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