Baszler beat Ember Moon for the belt you lost me there other than that I agree.
That's fair, but I generally look at black champions in the WWE as stand-alone moments that don't really signify a trend or a change in philosophy. With rare exceptions, they are little more than trial runs.
So even though New Day, Ember Moon, Sasha Banks, Rich Swann, Lashley, Cedric Alexander, etc. have all held titles in WWE/NXT (Big E was NXT Champion too) ... none of these past instances inspire any confidence in me that they'll do it again. I have to see it exist before speaking it into existence.
But honestly, the reason why I think Belair will lose is because of her gimmick (hard to pass up the potential story there if you tell it right) and the fact that from time to time, the WWE brands like to throw curveballs at you and have the person you're expecting to win fukk around and lose only to get the win back later or you have the person you're not expecting to win actually get the W. Happened with Toni Storm, Mustache Mountain, Samoa Joe SEVERAL times against Balor, and so on and so forth.