As far as Silver goes, he's been hedging his bet the entire time....83%?
its either he's winning or he isnt
C'mon man.
Just because there are two possible outcomes doesn't mean they are both equally likely to happen.
Nate Silver has the most to lose this election
- Thread starter Slystallion
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C'mon man.
Just because there are two possible outcomes doesn't mean they are both equally likely to happen.
AnonymityX1000
Veteran
As far as Silver goes, he's been hedging his bet the entire time....83%?
its either he's winning or he isnt
It's called statistics. If you want a prediction you are asking the wrong guy. He bet Morning Joe based off his 83% anyway so that should be good enough I hope.
Dusty Bake Activate
Fukk your corny debates
As far as Silver goes, he's been hedging his bet the entire time....83%?
its either he's winning or he isnt
Please take a statistics class.
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This Nate Silver vs idiots debate has really exposed how uneducated some of these people really are. It even exposed some idiots on Silver's side as well.
MIT OpenCourseWare | Mathematics | 18.05 Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Spring 2005 | Home
MIT OpenCourseWare | Mathematics | 18.05 Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Spring 2005 | Home
I saw it today..I really hope Nate isn't
us.. Most polls have everything at a tie or close to one..
no they don't
Obama is up comfortably in enough states to win 270 electoral votes which is why Nate has him at 84% chance to win.
In terms of battleground states, Obama needs to only win Wisconsin, Nevada, and Ohio to get to 270. He's on average up over 2.5 points in all those states. Nate's models show that historically if you are up over 2.5 points on average with a couple of days to go, then you got a 80+% chance of winning.
Don't let the fact that the leads are small fool you into thinking the race is close. A 3 point lead two days before the election is almost always gonna be a victory. Like Nate said today, only way Romney wins is if all the polls are wrong. And he found that there is only a 16% chance that all the polls could be biased.
I_Got_Da_Burna
Superstar
Look at it this way, morons (and by morons, I mean Trip):
If the Giants play the Browns at the Meadowlands, who would you put money on? Who's favored to win?
If the Giants play the Browns at the Meadowlands, who would you put money on? Who's favored to win?
Obama is up 3 points with a half minute left to play in the 4th quarter. Run out the clock by making no mistakes and go home 
Obama is up 3 points with a half minute left to play in the 4th quarter. Run out the clock by making no mistakes and go home
I hope Romney can do his best Eli Manning impression and Obama is RG3
You mean Obama is the Redskins DefenseI hope Romney can do his best Eli Manning impression and Obama is RG3
I hope Romney can do his best Eli Manning impression and Obama is Redskins secondary
fixed
AnonymityX1000
Veteran
while watching some of the Sunday political shows it just reinforced how Nate's blog is really making these pundits look dumb. All they do is point to specifics in certain polls that support their current theory. And based on their political leanings, where they work or whatever is going on with them mental/emotionally they make some judgement call.
Before a commercial break G. Stephanopoulos said, "We'll be right back with our panel to make sense of these polls." <- That's exactly what Nate's blog does without bias just using numbers of as many credible polls as possible with a lot of transparency. Pundits are like now obsolete!
Before a commercial break G. Stephanopoulos said, "We'll be right back with our panel to make sense of these polls." <- That's exactly what Nate's blog does without bias just using numbers of as many credible polls as possible with a lot of transparency. Pundits are like now obsolete!
If Nate's right there's gonna be some people outta jobs.
They're scared.
They're scared.
Rapmastermind
Superstar
Exactly. Nate is changing the game. Pundits are so scared of Nate right now it's funny. If you google his name he has close to 100 Million hits. His model will be norm if he can pull this prediction out. It's funny actually seeing media pundits now quoting Nate's blog as a reference. I've never see so many people scared of a blogger in my life. Dude will cake big if Obama pulls this through.