Honestly, it'd be a smart move to have NXT 'win' on Sunday. You lose nothing but establish NXT as worth watching, which would allow them to combat their only actual competition on that day, by elevating how certain NXT talent are viewed. And then, if you do that well, when you do 'call up' certain people, they can come in with established mystique and background, instead of them rebooting everyone as soon as they come up like they'd been doing.
NXT winning most matchups, and building even the ones they don't win around the strengths of the NXT people in the matches would work best. The two main titles are on the show doing their own thing and those can continue your stories, but it's best case scenario to run this with the goal of legitimately building up NXT so people like Larry who don't watch it might be compelled to, and so those who had been choosing AEW might be compelled to switch.