Making our Pockets Fat again AGAIN PT 2 - Official Gambling Thread

[<<TheStandard>>]

I think I will too before the line moves to 4.

Gonna Film study the Adam-Less Packers. If Gallup is a strong likelihood ofplay.

This line isn't going to move to 4. If anything you'll see it move to 3 because the moment it goes to 4 you're going to get sharp money on GB.

I'm willing to bet you'll see 3s tomorrow.

Also how can you film study the Adam less packers, given they got caught with Adams' injury and had to adjust on the fly. There's a huge difference between losing a player in game and having to deal with his absence and having a week to prepare given his absence (since Teddy Bridgewater vs the Rams vs Bridgewater vs Seattle and Dallas)

 

[Sghost597]

You guys go and bet Dallas if you want to but just check Dallas' record without Tyron smith while you're at it.

Tyron smith is probably the Cowboys best player and yet you guys are treating Devante Adams as if he's worth more to the point spread than him. Adams might not be worth anything.....but he's probably worth a half point at best. Tyron Smith is probably worth 1-2 points. This line should be GB +2.5 honestly.

Also La'el Collins is banged up.

GB has a week and half to prepare without Devante Adams. They'll be fine offensively.

You guys should really get into the habit of handicapping offensive lines and weighing their importance over skill players. It's the most important thing in football.

This should be a low scoring game with the winner winning by a fg, making the 3.5 very valuable. I think GB wins this game outright tho. GB's run defense is weak but if GB gets out to a early lead, I don't expect Dallas to be able to pass protect at all against this GB defensive line. Also I like GB's secondary against Dallas' receiving core.

7-2 Without Smith.

Still think Dallas has the superior line on both sides of the ball


Edit: I've played Offensive line for 15 years. SO, it's 100% my expertise when film studying. I be honest, I'm really not hyped on Green Bay's lines.

 

[Sghost597]

I will say that Dallas is susceptible to Prime Rodger's magic.

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

7-2 Without Smith.

Still think Dallas has the superior line on both sides of the ball


Edit: I've played Offensive line for 15 years. SO, it's 100% my expertise when film studying. I be honest, I'm really not hyped on Green Bay's lines.

Interesting.

Say no more.

Def would like to hear what you have to say in regards to your film study.

 

[CrimsonTider]

This line isn't going to move to 4. If anything you'll see it move to 3 because the moment it goes to 4 you're going to get sharp money on GB.

I'm willing to bet you'll see 3s tomorrow.

Also how can you film study the Adam less packers, given they got caught with Adams' injury and had to adjust on the fly. There's a huge difference between losing a player in game and having to deal with his absence and having a week to prepare given his absence (since Teddy Bridgewater vs the Rams vs Bridgewater vs Seattle and Dallas)

What hurt Cowboys against The Saints was Coop not being 100%. If he can’t create big obvious windows for Dak to throw into he struggles

 

[Sghost597]

Interesting.

Say no more.

Def would like to hear what you have to say in regards to your film study.

I will post it around noon like my usual film study post, hopefully. Rewatching the all-22 on Saints-Dallas and Packers-Eagles right now and digging up stats.

Dallas-Green Bay is probably gonna be my big game for the week. The match-up is pretty glaring.

Dallas offense biggest inefficiency was missing Gallup and Sheldon Rankin's return to the Saints D-line. Dallas rush on 1st down a ridiculous amount of times to very little success. From my impression... They took what the analytics gave them and game plan around it. They refused to adjust with the gaming being so close in case rush defense gas out. It never did.

Saints before Dallas game and without Rankins on the Dline...

134 yards Rushing per game(3 games).

A lot of that was actually from week one (Vs. Texans)180 yards allowed, but they where missing two huge interior pieces in Rankins and David Onyemata.

Once David came back... It from 180 yards to 115,108 allowed to Rams, Seahawks The Saint's rush Dline was missing depth.

So, I think Dallas got lulled into a bad gameplan and not a lot of people expected much from Rankins coming from an achilles injury. He record over 60% of the snaps at 30ish and was pretty stout. It keep the interior D-line fresh throughout the game.

Green Bay won't have that player coming back from injury. In fact, from what I've watched from

Minn
Chi
Denver
Philly

Too be honest... Am I the only one that feels that this motion heavy gimmick offense by Green Bay with mediocre weapons is a bunch of smoke and mirrors? It's too slow and methodical. It's bad for large chunks of games and I don't like it. The offense couldn't create running lanes except on Minnesota.

The defense is weird. NO Dline depth. One of the worst Inside linebackers that I've ever witness in Martinez. Kind of undersized, but plays fast and able to apply pressure. Rush defense in a 3-4 will always be it's Achilles heel. If you can get an elite 3-4 defense that can clampdown on the run. It's pretty much gonna be an historic defense. It's what you trade for pass rush, but you need 3 really good linebackers with elite IQ and elite interior line man and your hybrid stand up Dlineman .

The most important dirty work pass rush position for a 3-4 is NT getting interior pressure to push the QB into the outside rushing lanes for sack or being able to create holes for delayed stunts and blitzes. If a QB can step up into the pocket on a 3-4. It's not gonna be a good day for that defense.

NT Kenny Clark vs. Jason Kelce



So, I'm gonna get up in the morning do more film study on Dallas's interior line. Saints D line has some big bodies, crazy athleticism, and where able to beat Smith and Collins with bull rushes on occasion. I don't think Green Bay will be able to do what they did.

I know Pettine is a great secondary coach and it hasn't stopped there. Secondary is play is stellar, but that front 7 needs about 3 more top 100 picks into it.

 

[Sghost597]

Dallas Back-Up LT Cameron Fleming is also on my watch list in the AM.

 

[TrillaMonsoon]

Any props or other bets yall are on today?

Today I have

Bears/Vikings ML parlay
Cardinals ML
Atl/Hou U49
Ravens -3.5
GB ML

 

[distinguishedNOW]

NE (-16)
NYG (+6)

That's all I got.

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

@taker597


you were dead right about this number going to 4.

Interesting

 

[CBSwagga]

Y’all ain’t trying to make no money this morning


Edit: forgot how to post screenshot

Tampa/bills/vikings

 

[Sghost597]

Just finished watching and about to head to work.

Dallas biggest focus will be..
Kenny Clark
Preston Smith
Za'Darius Smith

They are a formidable pass rush trio.

Dallas oline could in a bind if Travis can't handle Clark. Fleming vs. Preston is the big match up will dictate the game and how they'll defend Clark. They've actually played against each other last year. Preston had the best of him with recording a sack and a few pressures. There is familiarity and could be a game breaking match up for Dallas.

They'll probably do a bunch of zone read on Clark with how Dallas loves to run in between tackles. Expect more pulling guard movements.

Dallas has to be very careful with their slow developing play action, because of pressure. Yet, it's a paramount game plan to keep the Packers defense on their toes against an elite play action team. Dallas has to be discipline with their off action play calling and get Elliott to a dangerous ypc to get the secondary to start biting. Dallas needs up tempo.

From what I've seen. It feels like a 4-7 point margin of victory. Dallas feels like a more complete team even if they played an inferior level of competition and got punched in the mouth by one of the best Dline in the NFL.

Green Bay simply fell apart on offense without Adams and without him. Rodgers got shut out of the end zone with his hero ball shenanigans. They can motion all day, but a good defense can tear that apart with more film study. Their defense give up so much rushing lanes, underneath passing opportunities, and can get picked apart when forcing a LB in coverage. Eagles longest completion was 20 yards. This is concerning as this is tailor made matchup for Dallas.


What I would do is live bet. And see if Packers run defense is still ugly.

Dallas -3

A Packer teaser is a smart play too.

 

[Jim Cornette]

Shiiiid hope nobody went bears today

 

[TeFLoNBoMBz]

Bills 2H +3

 

["It Was Always Jerry"]

Shiiiid hope nobody went bears today

their first half at that.