Honestly, I don't think it'll be close.
I made an argument for the Pats with
@AVXL but he was right in one aspect everyone's fall back is Beli's gonna pull something out of his hat because he's Beli the genius. There's too much offensive talent to deal with and too many mismatches. The Rams/Colts had smaller skill players that the Pats could overpower by being physical. The Steelers had offensive talent, but Ben ain't been shyt this year. Julio, Sanu, Gabriel, Freeman, Coleman and Matt's been on target most of the season.
The media's been weirdly building a case for the Pats around the "scheme" they're gonna run without considering the one on one matchups within the scheme that are talent based. If this is a track meet, which it will be, then the falcons will win. Taking away Julio leaves everyone else in a ridiculously favorable matchup talent wise. They could literally run 2 verticals and force a matchup where ninkovich is one on one with Freeman/Coleman.
They don't need "explosive" plays like they're writing. They just need to exploit their obvious advantages. Quinn is smart enough to make sure Shanny does that.