Lomachenko vs. Lopez Betting Picks
Raheem Palmer: Lomachenko by Decision
This fight feels reminiscent of the 2012 matchup between Canelo Alvarez vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. in which a young and green fighter is schooled and outclassed by the slick and savvy veteran. In this case you have 23-year-old Teofimo Lopez with just 15 fights matched up against a two-time Olympic Gold medalist and Ring Magazine’s No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound best boxer in the world in Vasiliy Lomachenko.
Similar to Canelo, Lopez comes into this fight with the perception of being a live dog, he’s younger, more athletic, bigger, has the reach advantage and packs a big punch. With 12 of his 15 fights ending in a knockout, why couldn’t this one be any different?
Lopez certainly has a puncher’s chance and many will cite his second round knockout win against Richard Commey as well as Lomachenko being knocked down by Jorge Linares in 2018. Still, Lomachenko is not only the more experienced fighter, he’s more skilled as well.
Lopez hasn’t faced the caliber of fighters that Lomachenko has faced such as Nicholas Walters, Guillermo Rigondeaux and Jose Pedraza. Styles make fights but you could argue that Lomachenko has faced several fighters who are better than Lopez.
Teofimo’s fight against Masayoshi Nakatani may serve as an example for some of the struggles he could face against Lomachenko given the amount of flush shots he took and overall difficulty he’s faced throughout the fight.
This is a fight in which we could actually see the smaller fighter in Lomachenko as the aggressor given his ability to cut off the ring. Lomachenko isn’t a natural 135 pounder and thus he isn’t a big puncher in the division, however his body punches will impact Lopez in the later rounds.
Unlike Teofimo’s previous opponents, Lomachenko won’t be found easily. We should see his elite footwork, head movement and elusiveness on full display Saturday night. When you add in Lomachenko’s ability to make adjustments based on experience, it’s clear Lopez is overmatched.
In a matchup between a boxer and a puncher, I typically choose the boxer. The only way Lopez wins this fight is by knockout and outside of a flash knockdown, I don’t see that happening. If Lopez doesn’t do anything substantial in the opening rounds of this fight, I don’t think he has much of a shot.
Given Lomachenko’s inactivity (he hasn’t fought since August 2019) and the size discrepancy, I’m reluctant to take him in a late round stoppage. I expect Lomachenko to give up some early rounds but outbox Lopez on his way to a 12 round decision.
The Pick: Lomachenko by Decision (-110)