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Will Egypt and Turkey go to war?
by Tom Rogan, Commentary Writer | | August 18, 2020 04:31 PM
3-4 minutes
Tensions between Egypt and Turkey are rising, and the risk of conflict is growing.
Led by two authoritarian leaders who place much value in the external presentation of nationalist power and pride, neither side has much interest in backing down. Further complicating matters, the ingredients for a conflict are becoming more numerous and increasingly potent.
One issue is Egypt's recent agreement with Greece over exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey believes those zones infringe on its territorial rights and says it won't recognize them. In the context of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly aggressive naval posture toward Greece, the Turkish president is considering similar military deployments against Egypt. That would force Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to choose between a military response against a superior navy, or risk losing face. Again, the carefully cultivated "strongman" identity of each leader makes them ill-inclined to make concessions.
An even more significant Egypt-Turkey pressure point is the situation in Libya.
In that nation's civil war, Turkey is providing military aid to the United Nations- and U.S.- supported Government of National Accord. But believing that government is too sympathetic to Islamist extremists, Egypt is backing Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army. While each side has generally operated via Libyan proxies, Turkey is bolstering its active military footprint in support of the Government of National Accord and against Haftar's external allies. But Egypt has warned that Turkish supported forces will cross a red line if they attempt to seize the coastal city of Sirte.
Erdogan is hinting that he might soon be ready to cross this Egyptian Rubicon. Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said on Tuesday that "Turkey was concerned that military elements had been building up in the Libyan cities of Sirte and Jufra for a year, posing a threat to the country's peace and territorial integrity ... He added that ridding Sirte and Jufra of weapons and mercenaries could be a good step..."
The Turkish government is testing Sisi, here, trying to figure out how serious his warnings are. But facing escalating tensions with Ethiopia over the latter's construction of a dam on the Blue Nile river, the Egyptian president can't easily risk his red lines appearing meaningless. As the BBC notes, however, Sisi is in a difficult position from a red-line-enforcement perspective. While the Egyptian air force is competent and has advanced aircraft to employ, its army would struggle to operate the logistics train necessary for sustained military options in Libya. From a cost point of view, also, there are real complications.
But one thing is for sure. Tensions are rising, and neither Turkey nor Egypt seem willing to back down.
Will Egypt and Turkey go to war?
by Tom Rogan, Commentary Writer | | August 18, 2020 04:31 PM
3-4 minutes
Tensions between Egypt and Turkey are rising, and the risk of conflict is growing.
Led by two authoritarian leaders who place much value in the external presentation of nationalist power and pride, neither side has much interest in backing down. Further complicating matters, the ingredients for a conflict are becoming more numerous and increasingly potent.
One issue is Egypt's recent agreement with Greece over exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey believes those zones infringe on its territorial rights and says it won't recognize them. In the context of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly aggressive naval posture toward Greece, the Turkish president is considering similar military deployments against Egypt. That would force Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to choose between a military response against a superior navy, or risk losing face. Again, the carefully cultivated "strongman" identity of each leader makes them ill-inclined to make concessions.
An even more significant Egypt-Turkey pressure point is the situation in Libya.
In that nation's civil war, Turkey is providing military aid to the United Nations- and U.S.- supported Government of National Accord. But believing that government is too sympathetic to Islamist extremists, Egypt is backing Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army. While each side has generally operated via Libyan proxies, Turkey is bolstering its active military footprint in support of the Government of National Accord and against Haftar's external allies. But Egypt has warned that Turkish supported forces will cross a red line if they attempt to seize the coastal city of Sirte.
Erdogan is hinting that he might soon be ready to cross this Egyptian Rubicon. Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said on Tuesday that "Turkey was concerned that military elements had been building up in the Libyan cities of Sirte and Jufra for a year, posing a threat to the country's peace and territorial integrity ... He added that ridding Sirte and Jufra of weapons and mercenaries could be a good step..."
The Turkish government is testing Sisi, here, trying to figure out how serious his warnings are. But facing escalating tensions with Ethiopia over the latter's construction of a dam on the Blue Nile river, the Egyptian president can't easily risk his red lines appearing meaningless. As the BBC notes, however, Sisi is in a difficult position from a red-line-enforcement perspective. While the Egyptian air force is competent and has advanced aircraft to employ, its army would struggle to operate the logistics train necessary for sustained military options in Libya. From a cost point of view, also, there are real complications.
But one thing is for sure. Tensions are rising, and neither Turkey nor Egypt seem willing to back down.
