Let's Talk Afro-Geopolitics III: ANC, Labour, Unemployment and the future of South Africa

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Income will be solved through infant industries like every other country did it.

Do you think the ANC is capable of this? South Africa needs a lot of low-skill jobs for its under-educated populace.

Also, do you think South Africa's unions are an obstacle to job growth? Does their leverage on labour law stop firms from hiring people?

 

[Thabo]

Do you think the ANC is capable of this? South Africa needs a lot of low-skill jobs for its under-educated populace.

Also, do you think South Africa's unions are an obstacle to job growth? Does their leverage on labour law stop firms from hiring people?

ANC is dying. EFF is more than capable after it has undertaken the necessary but painful reforms. That's why infant industries are necessary for import substitution to be undertaken. Unions I'm a bit neutral about, I would prefer to have special economic zones where minimum wage is low but not have the entire country become a sweatshop appanage for businesses.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

ANC is dying. EFF is more than capable after it has undertaken the necessary but painful reforms. That's why infant industries are necessary for import substitution to be undertaken. Unions I'm a bit neutral about, I would prefer to have special economic zones where minimum wage is low but not have the entire country become a sweatshop appanage for businesses.

Why do you think the EFF is capable? What economic agenda has Julius Malema brought forward beyond seizing white capital in South Africa?

Import Substitution has typically not worked on the African continent. Why do you think it would work under an EFF government?

 

[Thabo]

Why do you think the EFF is capable? What economic agenda has Julius Malema brought forward beyond seizing white capital in South Africa?

Import Substitution has typically not worked on the African continent. Why do you think it would work under an EFF government?

Land reform is the important issue, ANC is not serious about it. Import substitution has never really been tried in Africa at all. These countries were colonies in the late 60's so they had no time to implement it before the Washington consensus took over through the IMF and World Bank. Import substitution is a prerequisite of industrialization, why do you think developed countries heavily subsidize their agricultural sector instead of importing from cheap countries? That's a form of import-substitution.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Land reform is the important issue, ANC is not serious about it. Import substitution has never really been tried in Africa at all. These countries were colonies in the late 60's so they had no time to implement it before the Washington consensus took over through the IMF and World Bank. Import substitution is a prerequisite of industrialization, why do you think developed countries heavily subsidize their agricultural sector instead of importing from cheap countries? That's a form of import-substitution.

I find that many post-liberation governments in Southern Africa are less concerned about creating wealth and more concerned with sharing wealth. The difference is, you can share more wealth once more capital is created.

That being said, land reform is a serious issue - but what would the EFF do to avoid a degradation in production while distributing land to poor people. Farming is hard. What inputs would an EFF government provide? How would land reform take place?

On Import Substitution - you're economic history is wrong. IS has been tried in many African countries because the nationalist/socialist governments which took over these countries in the 60s and 70s thought it was the best way to industrialize. Of course, they were wrong creating debt-crises which ballooned by the early 1980s. It would be very sad to see South Africa gone down a path already tread by Tanzania, Nigeria and others.

Read this: Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa and import substitution policy

Export-led industrialization is the way. That's why Mexico (which did IS for decades) only started to develop when it switched its industrialization strategy in the early 1990s to export-led development (plus NAFTA).

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

This is really important:
"Finally, it is important to note that most of the problems in the industrial sector emerged from actions and choices of the political elite: measures towards industrialization through import substitution, and investments in manufacturing and subjacent sectors, were handled as political weapons, either by the Government or the political party. In fact, the domain of industry was a way of legitimating the politicians rather than a rational economic policy aimed at the development of the industrial sector. The measures were somehow randomly taken, and sooner or later would end in failure of the sector, as well as in a generalized economic crisis, as the entire region had a highly deficient and inefficient sector financed by the external debt."

I doubt a government under the likes of Julius Malema can avoid the economic mistakes of Nyerere, Nkrumah and others.

 

[Red Shield]

In some way or form SA will continue to be a territorial entity, I think. But a few paths lay open to it.

Not seeing it. Hell don't even think anyone would bother keeping the name South Africa once it's all over.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Not seeing it. Hell don't even think anyone would bother keeping the name South Africa once it's all over.

What do you think will happen?

 

[Red Shield]

What do you think will happen?

You mean what I think comes after SA explodes into all out violence?




The biggest force down there after the whites are gone, are the Zulus right.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

You mean what I think comes after SA explodes into all out violence?




The biggest force down there after the whites are gone, are the Zulus right.

I meant, why do you think SA will disintegrate?

 

[Red Shield]

I meant, why do you think SA will disintegrate?

I've already talked about that

 

[Thabo]

I find that many post-liberation governments in Southern Africa are less concerned about creating wealth and more concerned with sharing wealth. The difference is, you can share more wealth once more capital is created.

That being said, land reform is a serious issue - but what would the EFF do to avoid a degradation in production while distributing land to poor people. Farming is hard. What inputs would an EFF government provide? How would land reform take place?

On Import Substitution - you're economic history is wrong. IS has been tried in many African countries because the nationalist/socialist governments which took over these countries in the 60s and 70s thought it was the best way to industrialize. Of course, they were wrong creating debt-crises which ballooned by the early 1980s. It would be very sad to see South Africa gone down a path already tread by Tanzania, Nigeria and others.

Read this: Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa and import substitution policy

Export-led industrialization is the way. That's why Mexico (which did IS for decades) only started to develop when it switched its industrialization strategy in the early 1990s to export-led development (plus NAFTA).

Land to the tiller program will take place. South Korea is the historical example on how to redistribute land.

Sorry man protectionism is the only way to industrialize a country there is no other alternative, free trade doesn't work. Export oriented development is a part of import substitution but merely a second phase of it. You can't have one without the other. Look at China right now, American countries have been shut out from their market while they practice import substitution with Huawei, WeChat and Baidu emerging.



Mexico has regressed ever since NAFTA was passed. Their agricultural sector was destroyed by subsidized goods. Its only stable because a large percentage of the population mass migrated to america.

 

[DrBanneker]

Buhari did toss out a million Ghanaians from Nigeria in the early 1980s. That's why we have the 'Ghana-Must-Go' bags.

Yeah but to be fair, remember the Nigerians Ghana tossed out after Nkrumah was gone? A lot had migrated there after Independence. Nkrumah did not agitate against them due to his Pan-Africanist vision, but once themilitary took over, they were kicked out in 1969.
http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/DCS/article/viewFile/12874/13454

 

[DrBanneker]

Land to the tiller program will take place. South Korea is the historical example on how to redistribute land.

Sorry man protectionism is the only way to industrialize a country there is no other alternative, free trade doesn't work. Export oriented development is a part of import substitution but merely a second phase of it. You can't have one without the other. Look at China right now, American countries have been shut out from their market while they practice import substitution with Huawei, WeChat and Baidu emerging.



Mexico has regressed ever since NAFTA was passed. Their agricultural sector was destroyed by subsidized goods. Its only stable because a large percentage of the population mass migrated to america.

I agree with the above. Only thing I will mention is Korean land reform was easy because the previous landowners, the Japanese, lost WWII and no one cared when they were expelled and had their land confiscated and redistributed. Same all over the rest of Asia that was Japanese or even European held. I would absolutely not say this is what should be done with White owned land in South Africa, that will destroy the country and possibly be handled quite poorly. I know the land was stolen but we should still use some sort of systems that respects rights/financial compensation (please don't roll your eyes).

Just mentioning the details of what happened in Asia when people say 'just do what Asia did'.

 

[DrBanneker]

Do you think the ANC is capable of this? South Africa needs a lot of low-skill jobs for its under-educated populace.

Also, do you think South Africa's unions are an obstacle to job growth? Does their leverage on labour law stop firms from hiring people?

Ramaphosa might, despite his scandals he knows business. These other cats

If we had real Pan-Africanism, the African continent would erect trade barriers against cheap Asian imports and lower them for internal trade so that countries like SA or Nigeria could build strong manufacturing bases exporting to the continent. Africa's huge problem is its intra-African trade is tiny compared to trade with the West or China.

Then once the industries were mature, there would be FDI to other parts of the continent with cheaper labor etc. in a development cycle. Africa will not get out of poverty exporting to US/Europe like Asia. Their demographics are bad and they will not grow like in the past. Asia has a deep pool of cheap labor and advanced infrastructure so exporting to them probably will not work either.