Let's Talk Afro-Geopolitics III: ANC, Labour, Unemployment and the future of South Africa

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

1. Depending on who you believe/talk to, South Africa may once again Africa's largest economy.

2. The race to replace Jacob Zuma as President and leader of the African National Congress (ANC) has begun. The two front-runners are Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

3. Zuma placed the ANC in a weakened position due to the numerous scandals surrounding him. Especially Nkandla (his private villa he built using state funds) and Zupta (the attempts of the Indian-born Gupta family to capture the South African state)

4. Ramaphosa is a former trade union leader who became a wealthy businessmen after the adoption of majority rule in 1994. He is the current Deputy President of South Africa. Dlamini-Zuma is the reigning chair of the African Union and Zuma's former wife.

Ramaphosa has been marked by scandal surrounding his involvement with the 2014 Marikana Massacre. Dlamini-Zuma has been described in some circles as in effectual head of the AU. Ramaphosa has trade union and business support. Dlamini-Zuma has ANC support from the province of KwaZulu-Natal along with the ANC Youth League and Women League.

5. South Africa has 27% unemployment (likely 40%). Millions of South Africans live in squatter camps or informal settlements with little to no sanitation or electricity. Crime is driven by South Africa's extreme poverty and the yawning gap of inequality.

6. The Democratic Alliance (DA) won major victories in the municipal elections held earlier this year. The ANC lost control of the ANC lost control of three metropolitan municipalities – namely Nelson Mandela Bay, City of Tshwane and City of Johannesburg. The EFF (led by the firebrand, Julius Malema) also won a greater vote share. The ANC's vote share when down by more than 8 percent.

7. Other relevant events including growing student protests over vestiges of white supremacy in the South African educational system such as Afrikaans only universities.

8. The political Tripartite Alliance between the ANC, the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) is collapsing.

9. A struggle for power between Jacob Zuma and Pravin Gordhan, the Finance Minister, has left the South African rand in a perilous state and the economy edging toward recession.

South Africa's economy is hurting from an acute energy crisis, Zuma's 'war' against Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and uncertain labour-mining relations.

- Is South Africa primed for a class revolution?
- Can the Democratic Alliance ever win the Presidency?
- Will the Economic Freedom Fighters seize power?
- Will the ANC wither away?
- What can be done to address inequality in South Africa?
- What of the cultural issues between Afrikaners and Black South Africans?

@KidStranglehold @Frangala @Poitier tag whomever you think would want to join this discussion

 

[Bawon Samedi]

I'll read and make my responde when I have time.


Anyways @Din0can @3rdWorld

 

[Frangala]

The DA can win in the future as part of the "Freedom" or "Free born" generation (born post-apartheid) become a significant part of the electorate. One of the main reasons the ANC still has political power in the country despite all these corruption scandals is because it is still regarded as the party that liberated the Black majority from white minority rule under apartheid.

However, the economy of the country s till controlled by whites plus the ANC is ridiculously corrupt. I have family who live in SA and I was in SA for 3 months in 2015. The ANC decided to share the spoils of the economy with a few Black people by running these non-transparent tender contracts rewarded based on patronage and not competence to build different infrastructure projects whereas the private sector economy is still controlled by whites. Voters face a real dilemma of voting for a corrupt ANC or a DA which will maintain the status quo in the private sector of white controlled economy.

South Africa is bound to blow up that's why they were attacking immigrants recently and trying to used them as a scapegoat for economic hardships and govt. mismanagement.

Solution : Reform the ANC with individuals who actually care about strengthening the economy instead of taking advantage of the liberation legacy to fill thier own pockets. This solution is for all African govts. I don't mean to single out South Africa, it is by no means unique than any other African country except it already has the required infrastructure to be a well-diversified, tech, manufacturing and services-based globally competitive economy instead of solely dependent on natural resources.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

The DA can win in the future as part of the "Freedom" or "Free born" generation (born post-apartheid) become a significant part of the electorate. One of the main reasons the ANC still has political power in the country despite all these corruption scandals is because it is still regarded as the party that liberated the Black majority from white minority rule under apartheid.

However, the economy of the country s till controlled by whites plus the ANC is ridiculously corrupt. I have family who live in SA and I was in SA for 3 months in 2015. The ANC decided to share the spoils of the economy with a few Black people by running these non-transparent tender contracts rewarded based on patronage and not competence to build different infrastructure projects whereas the private sector economy is still controlled by whites. Voters face a real dilemma of voting for a corrupt ANC or a DA which will maintain the status quo in the private sector of white controlled economy.

South Africa is bound to blow up that's why they were attacking immigrants recently and trying to used them as a scapegoat for economic hardships and govt. mismanagement.

Solution : Reform the ANC with individuals who actually care about strengthening the economy instead of taking advantage of the liberation legacy to fill thier own pockets. This solution is for all African govts. I don't mean to single out South Africa, it is by no means unique than any other African country except it already has the required infrastructure to be a well-diversified, tech, manufacturing and services-based globally competitive economy instead of solely dependent on natural resources.

- Do you think Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) was a failure?
- South Africa's population growth will slow considerably sometime this century. How will South Africa react towards capital requiring more immigrants from the rest of Africa?

 

[Frangala]

- The policy itself is not a failure but the application is because it rewards those Blacks (very small minority of Blacks) who are connected to the govt.
- It will open its borders and be less stringent right now the economy is already bad and people do not want a flow of immigrants

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

- The policy itself is not a failure but the application is because it rewards those Blacks (very small minority of Blacks) who are connected to the govt.
- It will open its borders and be less stringent right now the economy is already bad and people do not want a flow of immigrants

If i'm assuming production will be less labour intensive, but the level of human capital amongst Black South Africans don't rise to meet this challenge - won't the influx of skilled capital from across the continent just inflame tensions?

 

[Red Shield]

I've said this many times before...I think South Africa is going to explode into massive civil unrest/war in the future.

The DA will never win the presidency, it's still thought of as the white/afrikaner/boer party. It can become blacker&blacker. But will never be truly trusted because whites will always be at the helm of it. What whites stay in SA anyway.


EFF will gain more as the the ANC continues to wither. Hell so will the DA.
The ANC is currently withering away, won't go away completely until the nation finally goes.

Cultural issues between afrikaners and south africans. "Cultural issues"

 

[Frangala]

If i'm assuming production will be less labour intensive, but the level of human capital amongst Black South Africans don't rise to meet this challenge - won't the influx of skilled capital from across the continent just inflame tensions?

Tensions are for the most part low skilled jobs or perception that immigrants are taking those low skilled jobs.

 

[3rdWorld]

- Do you think Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) was a failure?
- South Africa's population growth will slow considerably sometime this century. How will South Africa react towards capital requiring more immigrants from the rest of Africa?

Impression is only ANC affiliated cronies got the contracts.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

I've said this many times before...I think South Africa is going to explode into massive civil unrest/war in the future.

The DA will never win the presidency, it's still thought of as the white/afrikaner/boer party. It can become blacker&blacker. But will never be truly trusted because whites will always be at the helm of it. What whites stay in SA anyway.


EFF will gain more as the the ANC continues to wither. Hell so will the DA.
The ANC is currently withering away, won't go away completely until the nation finally goes.

Cultural issues between afrikaners and south africans. "Cultural issues"

Cultural issues was referring to specific protests against Afrikaans only universities and other cultural vestiges of past Afrikaner dominance.

I think millions of Afrikaners will never leave SA. What is to be done?

 

[Red Shield]

Cultural issues was referring to specific protests against Afrikaans only universities and other cultural vestiges of past Afrikaner dominance.

I think millions of Afrikaners will never leave SA. What is to be done?

Those issues are just part of the greater black-white issue.


The one's who don't leave will probably end up being killed.

 

[ZoeGod]

If the economy worsen the ANC will get weaker and weaker politically and that maybe an opening to the EEF. South Africa is a time bomb waiting to explode. Mandela only delayed the inevitable but civil war is definitely in the nation's future.

 

[Poitier]

Don't really care about the near-term politics of SA but its problem is this.....SA does not view itself as an African state neither does its citizens (black or white). Until it embraces integration with the continent, its economy will only be at half-mast and its cultural/social problems will continue to exacerbate.

 

[Trajan]

Don't really care about the near-term politics of SA but its problem is this.....SA does not view itself as an African state neither does its citizens (black or white). Until it embraces integration with the continent, its economy will only be at half-mast and its cultural/social problems will continue to exacerbate.

South Africans say they're going to ''Africa'' when they travel elsewhere on the continent

Plus they kill other Africans in xenophobic attacks. I don't think that happens anywhere else in Africa. But they have no problem with
indians and Whites getting money in the country.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Don't really care about the near-term politics of SA but its problem is this.....SA does not view itself as an African state neither does its citizens (black or white). Until it embraces integration with the continent, its economy will only be at half-mast and its cultural/social problems will continue to exacerbate.

SA treats Africa like how the Europeans do. Zuma's attempts to intervene in the Central African Republic so that his son's company could access diamonds are an example of the current mindset.

I think it ultimately stems from Mandela's high-mindedness towards the continent which has been carried onwards. Mbeki didn't make things easier.