He can get Joe Crowley'd
Schumer isn't gonna get Crowley'd. If the Dems win the Senate, he'd be the Majority Leader. Plus, a New York poll by Siena College in March showed AOC could struggle statewide. And this Zogby poll done in May shows AOC trailing by over 30%.
Senator Chuck Schumer performed well with almost every sub-group surveyed. Schumer beat Ocasio-Cortez in every region: Upstate (Schumer leads 59% to 15%), suburbs (Schumer leads 56% to 19%), and NYC (Schumer leads 48% to 28%). The senate minority leader won regardless of gender, ideology, environ, and generation. More importantly, Schumer also performed well with swing voters, such as, suburban voters (Schumer leads 56% to 16%) and suburban women (Schumer leads 48% to 17%).
Even though on paper it looks like a mismatch, the freshman congresswomen did win with voters aged 18-29 (Ocasio-Cortez leads 56% to 16%), voters aged 18-34 (Ocasio-Cortez leads 45% to 29%), and single voters (Ocasio-Cortez leads 36% to 34%). "AOC" also polled decent with voters living in NYC. While it would be hard to defeat someone of Schumer's stature, Ocasio Cortez could make things interesting in a primary by energizing the younger base throughout the state, and depending on turnout, could make a hypothetical primary interesting at the very least. Also of note, are the two groups who were most unsure about how they would vote-women (Schumer leads 49% to 19%; 25% unsure) and suburban women (Schumer leads 48% to 17%; 25% unsure)-Ocasio Cortez could take advantage of their uncertainty, and appeal to both groups, which could help better her chances in a potential primary showdown.
A hypothetical primary between the junior Senator from New York-Kirsten Gillibrand and Congresswomen Ocasio-Cortez didn't yield much different results than the match-up with Schumer, but the race is much closer. Unlike Schumer, Gillibrand did not receive a majority of support from likely voters statewide, but she was easily beating the firebrand Ocasio-Cortez (from the Bronx) in a potential Democratic primary. Another thing that should be pointed out is that Gillibrand did not receive a majority support from many sub-groups surveyed. She did best with older voters aged 65+ (Gillibrand leads 64% to 12%), Protestants (Gillibrand leads 52% to 23%), and consumers who shop at Walmart a few times a year (Gillibrand leads 52% to 24%).
Representative Ocasio-Cortez did very well with younger voters aged 18-34 (Ocasio-Cortez leads 46% to 24%), voters in living in NYC (Ocasio-Cortez and Gillibrand tied at 35%), self-identified liberals (Gillibrand leads 41% to 35%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Ocasio-Cortez leads 38% to 36%) and Millennials (Ocasio-Cortez leads 44% to 31%).
The fact that Ocasio-Cortez is neck and neck with Gillibrand in NYC, and beating the former presidential candidate among younger voters, should be worrisome to the senator since many votes on a statewide level come from downstate, and Ocasio-Cortez has the name recognition to energize younger voters. Gillibrand should take note.
Schumer hasn't had to deal with a primary since he first ran for that seat in 1998 when he was underdog to Geraldine Ferraro.
New York state is probably the heaviest Democratic Party machine state. Unless Schumer has some kind of crazy scandal or has a health issue, no one in the NY Delegation is gonna beat him in a primary.
You'll need $15M-$20M just to win the primary.
Sam Seder said he's gonna explore a run though
She's not nationally known, but she has no baggage that I can think of and she has a record that would appeal to both black people and progressives. I was on Reddit and a couple of Bernie supporters were saying they would down for it considering she supports Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. She's also chair of the CBC.
At least this pick would help pacify some of the anger from the left.