‘Jobs may disappear’: Nearly 40% of global employment could be disrupted by AI, IMF says

[bnew]

I was coming in to say this. These CEOs are trying to promote it with this doom and gloom bs. As of now these LLMs can't create new solutions. It can replace Google and stack overflow... That's about it

This bubble pop is going to be epic.

Spoiler: thread continued

Spoiler: full text

1/6
Introducing FunSearch in @Nature: a method using large language models to search for new solutions in mathematics & computer science.

It pairs the creativity of an LLM with an automated evaluator to guard against hallucinations and incorrect ideas. FunSearch: Making new discoveries in mathematical sciences using Large Language Models

2/6
FunSearch uses an evolutionary approach to find the “fittest” ideas, which are expressed as computer programs to be run and evaluated automatically.

An iterative procedure allows the LLM to suggest improvements to programs while the evaluator discards bad ones.

3/6
We pushed the boundary of this simple method to discover new results for hard open problems in mathematics and computer science.

FunSearch doesn't only find solutions, it outputs programs that describe how to build those solutions. ↓ FunSearch: Making new discoveries in mathematical sciences using Large Language Models

4/6
The “cap set problem” is akin to finding the largest set of points - called a cap set - in a high-dimensional grid, where no three points lie on a line.

FunSearch created state-of-the-art programs which discovered cap sets that are larger than previously known.

5/6
The bin-packing problem looks at how to pack items into the least amount of bins. It has many practical applications like allocating compute jobs in data centers to minimize costs.

FunSearch tailors programs to the specifics of the data, outperforming established approaches.

6/6
FunSearch marks the first time an LLM has been used to generate new knowledge in the mathematical sciences realm.

It could even be applied to improve algorithms used in:
Manufacturing
Optimizing logistics
Reducing energy consumption

And more. ↓ FunSearch: Making new discoveries in mathematical sciences using Large Language Models


To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: larger images

 

[Thurgood Thurston III]

I was coming in to say this. These CEOs are trying to promote it with this doom and gloom bs. As of now these LLMs can't create new solutions. It can replace Google and stack overflow... That's about it

This bubble pop is going to be epic.

You do realize all of those things he listed are HEAVILY used today?

They may not have replaced every single thing but they are pretty much required for society to function now.

"Robotics will replace everything!"

Robotics is used everywhere, particularly in manufacturing.

"Dot Com will replace everything!"

Ever seen the state of businesses that don't use the internet? A lot of things you need to run your business is from a "Dot Com".

"Crypto will replace everything!"

"The Blockchain will replace everything!"

Hasn't completely replaced anything but it's still around and going strong.

AI may not replace humans completely, but it's here to stay.

 

[MikelArteta]

You do realize all of those things he listed are HEAVILY used today?

They may not have replaced every single thing but they are pretty much required for society to function now.

"Robotics will replace everything!"

Robotics is used everywhere, particularly in manufacturing.

"Dot Com will replace everything!"

Ever seen the state of businesses that don't use the internet? A lot of things you need to run your business is from a "Dot Com".

"Crypto will replace everything!"

"The Blockchain will replace everything!"

Hasn't completely replaced anything but it's still around and going strong.

AI may not replace humans completely, but it's here to stay.

And still in the infancy

 

[buzzkill]

Spoiler: thread continued

Spoiler: full text

1/6
Introducing FunSearch in @Nature: a method using large language models to search for new solutions in mathematics & computer science.

It pairs the creativity of an LLM with an automated evaluator to guard against hallucinations and incorrect ideas. FunSearch: Making new discoveries in mathematical sciences using Large Language Models

2/6
FunSearch uses an evolutionary approach to find the “fittest” ideas, which are expressed as computer programs to be run and evaluated automatically.

An iterative procedure allows the LLM to suggest improvements to programs while the evaluator discards bad ones.

3/6
We pushed the boundary of this simple method to discover new results for hard open problems in mathematics and computer science.

FunSearch doesn't only find solutions, it outputs programs that describe how to build those solutions. ↓ FunSearch: Making new discoveries in mathematical sciences using Large Language Models

4/6
The “cap set problem” is akin to finding the largest set of points - called a cap set - in a high-dimensional grid, where no three points lie on a line.

FunSearch created state-of-the-art programs which discovered cap sets that are larger than previously known.

5/6
The bin-packing problem looks at how to pack items into the least amount of bins. It has many practical applications like allocating compute jobs in data centers to minimize costs.

FunSearch tailors programs to the specifics of the data, outperforming established approaches.

6/6
FunSearch marks the first time an LLM has been used to generate new knowledge in the mathematical sciences realm.

It could even be applied to improve algorithms used in:
Manufacturing
Optimizing logistics
Reducing energy consumption

And more. ↓ FunSearch: Making new discoveries in mathematical sciences using Large Language Models


To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196

Spoiler: larger images

Cool now imagine ceos and other non technical people trying to implement and maintain those solutions. These people still need help desk support to tell them to restart their computer.

I find it hard to believe a non technical person will be able to use AI to piece together code to create an app, deploy it to AWS or another cloud service provider and maintain it. At most I think this will make some Jr jobs redundant while making skilled workers more productive.

Also if ai can launch and maintain apps, there would be no reason for a business to have any humans. At that point everyone including the ceo would be redundant

This bubble pop will be epic

 

[bnew]

Cool now imagine ceos and other non technical people trying to implement and maintain those solutions. These people still need help desk support to tell them to restart their computer.

I find it hard to believe a non technical person will be able to use AI to piece together code to create an app, deploy it to AWS or another cloud service provider and maintain it. At most I think this will make some Jr jobs redundant while making skilled workers more productive.

Also if ai can launch and maintain apps, there would be no reason for a business to have any humans. At that point everyone including the ceo would be redundant

This bubble pop will be epic

it's funny you mentioned that cause ...

Could AI create a one-person unicorn? Sam Altman thinks so—and Silicon Valley sees the technology ‘waiting for us’

In September, Altman said his tech CEO friends' groupchat has a "betting pool for the first year that there is a one-person billion dollar company."

finance.yahoo.com

snippet:

The AI revolution has already minted dozens of unicorns—startups valued at $1 billion before going public. Now it could create a whole new type of startup: the one-person unicorn.

The idea even got a stamp of approval from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Speaking during an interview with Reddit cofounder Alexis Ohanian, Altman said he regularly speculates about when the first founder will reach a billion-dollar valuation without even hiring a single employee.

“In my little groupchat with my tech CEO friends there’s this betting pool for the first year that there is a one-person billion dollar company,” Altman told Ohanian. “Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”

Ohanian, too, was excited about the possibility. “This is a radical idea,” he told Altman during their interview at a September conference.

A one-person unicorn would defy the conventional wisdom that a company needs to hire more employees in order to grow. “There’s going to be a new phenomenon where CEOs and founders are going to be so excited to get up and go to work with much smaller, much more performant, much more culturally strong teams,” Ohanian said.

For many, it’s a question of when, not if, it will happen. “I don't know many people who don't believe this,” says James Currier, a partner at venture capital firm NFX.

you pretty much described how current researchers envision AI agents eventually working.

 

[JoelB]

In a court case, your life or your finances are on the line. I don’t think most people or law firms would be willing to rely on an AI to protect their interests.

And I don’t think an AI would do a good job of creating convincing arguments in a courtroom. They can come up with facts, but they aren’t good at connecting with people or appealing to our emotions

There are already websites where you can describe your legal situation and it'll start creating contracts, affidavits, counterclaims, etc. if you're dealing with some sort of litigation. Now I wouldn't be taking those documents straight to the courts without it being reviewed by an attorney, but in five years to think that these documents won't be just as good if not better...

 

[bnew]

There are already websites where you can describe your legal situation and it'll start creating contracts, affidavits, counterclaims, etc. if you're dealing with some sort of litigation. Now I wouldn't be taking those documents straight to the courts without it being reviewed by an attorney, but in five years to think that these documents won't be just as good if not better...

a law was written by chatgpt

Brazilian city enacts an ordinance that was secretly written by ChatGPT

City lawmakers in Brazil passed the nation’s first legislation written entirely by AI — even if they didn’t know it at the time.

apnews.com

Brazilian city enacts an ordinance that was secretly written by ChatGPT​

By DIANE JEANTET and MAURICIO SAVARESE
Updated 3:39 PM EDT, November 30, 2023

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — City lawmakers in Brazil have enacted what appears to be the nation’s first legislation written entirely by artificial intelligence — even if they didn’t know it at the time.

The experimental ordinance was passed in October in the southern city of Porto Alegre and city councilman Ramiro Rosário revealed this week that it was written by a chatbot, sparking objections and raising questions about the role of artificial intelligence in public policy.

Rosário told The Associated Press that he asked OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT to craft a proposal to prevent the city from charging taxpayers to replace water consumption meters if they are stolen. He then presented it to his 35 peers on the council without making a single change or even letting them know about its unprecedented origin.

“If I had revealed it before, the proposal certainly wouldn’t even have been taken to a vote,” Rosário told the AP by phone on Thursday. The 36-member council approved it unanimously and the ordinance went into effect on Nov. 23.

“It would be unfair to the population to run the risk of the project not being approved simply because it was written by artificial intelligence,” he added.
The arrival of ChatGPT on the marketplace just a year ago has sparked a global debate on the impacts of potentially revolutionary AI-powered chatbots. While some see it as a promising tool, it has also caused concerns and anxiety about the unintended or undesired impacts of a machine handling tasks currently performed by humans.

Porto Alegre, with a population of 1.3 million, is the second-largest city in Brazil’s south. The city’s council president, Hamilton Sossmeier, found out that Rosário had enlisted ChatGPT to write the proposal when the councilman bragged about the achievement on social media on Wednesday. Sossmeier initially told local media he thought it was a “dangerous precedent.”

The AI large language models that power chatbots like ChatGPT work by repeatedly trying to guess the next word in a sentence and are prone to making up false information, a phenomenon sometimes called hallucination.

All chatbots sometimes introduce false information when summarizing a document, ranging from about 3% of the time for the most advanced GPT model to a rate of about 27% for one of Google’s models, according to recently published research by the tech company Vectara.

In an article published on the website of Harvard Law School’s Center of Legal Profession earlier this year, Andrew Perlman, dean at Suffolk University Law School, wrote that ChatGPT “may portend an even more momentous shift than the advent of the internet,” but also warned of its potential shortcomings.
“It may not always be able to account for the nuances and complexities of the law. Because ChatGPT is a machine learning system, it may not have the same level of understanding and judgment as a human lawyer when it comes to interpreting legal principles and precedent. This could lead to problems in situations where a more in-depth legal analysis is required,” Perlman wrote.

Porto Alegre’s Rosário wasn’t the first lawmaker in the world to test ChatGPT’s abilities. Others have done so in a more limited capacity or with less successful outcomes.

In Massachusetts, Democratic state Sen. Barry Finegold turned to ChatGPT to help write a bill aimed at regulating artificial intelligence models, including ChatGPT. Filed earlier this year, it has yet to be voted on.

Finegold said by phone on Wednesday that ChatGPT can help with some of the more tedious elements of the lawmaking process, including correctly and quickly searching and citing laws already on the books. However, it is critical that everyone knows ChatGPT or a similar tool was used in the process, he added.

“We want work that is ChatGPT generated to be watermarked,” he said, adding that the use of artificial intelligence to help draft new laws is inevitable. “I’m in favor of people using ChatGPT to write bills as long as it’s clear.”

There was no such transparency for Rosário’s proposal in Porto Alegre. Sossmeier said Rosário did not inform fellow council members that ChatGPT had written the proposal.


Keeping the proposal’s origin secret was intentional. Rosário told the AP his objective was not just to resolve a local issue, but also to spark a debate. He said he entered a 49-word prompt into ChatGPT and it returned the full draft proposal within seconds, including justifications.
“I am convinced that ... humanity will experience a new technological revolution,” he said. “All the tools we have developed as a civilization can be used for evil and good. That’s why we have to show how it can be used for good.”
And the council president, who initially decried the method, already appears to have been swayed.
“I changed my mind,” Sossmeier said. “I started to read more in depth and saw that, unfortunately or fortunately, this is going to be a trend.”

_____​

Savarese reported from Sao Paulo. AP journalists Steve LeBlanc in Boston and Matt O’Brien in Providence, Rhode Island, contributed to this report.

 

[bnew]

gonna be stuff competing with systems like this that'll eventually be able to communicate at minimum a textbook per second.

 

[bnew]

 

[bnew]

Artificial intelligence will affect 60 million US and Mexican jobs within the year

IDB study shows the impact that AI will have on the labor market. Women and low-skilled workers are more vulnerable to being replaced

english.elpais.com

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Artificial intelligence will affect 60 million US and Mexican jobs within the year​

IDB study shows the impact that AI will have on the labor market. Women and low-skilled workers are more vulnerable to being replaced​

Workers sort packages at an Amazon distribution facility in Tepotzotlan, Mexico state.Alejandro Cegarra (Bloomberg)

Patricia Caro

Washington - SEP 15, 2024 - 00:00 EDT

Artificial intelligence’s impact on our lives is already well-known, but now, its most feared consequences related to the job marketare setting off alarms. An innovative index created by the Inter-American Development Bank shows that in the United States, 43 million jobs will be affected by the introduction of AI in the space of just one year. In Mexico, that figure stands at 16 million jobs. Over the next five years, those numbers will rise to 60 and 22 million, respectively. In the space of a decade, 70 million jobs in the U.S. will suffer, along with 26 million in its neighboring country.

“These estimates do not directly correspond to job losses, but they do indicate that a large proportion of occupations are vulnerable, and that there is an opportunity to leverage the jobs that will be most affected. We must have a plan for the impact that AI could have,” says Eric Parrado, chief economist at the IDB and co-author of the index.

The AI-Generated Index of Occupational Exposure calculates the potential impact of artificial intelligence on occupations and their associated tasks among more than 750 professions on one, five and 10-year timelines. It is based on large data sets, which it processes and synthesizes quickly, offering an alternative to traditional surveys, which are usually expensive.

According to the index, 980 million jobs around the world will be affected in some way by this new technology within the year. That amounts to 28% of the global workforce. Within five years, that figure will rise to between 38%, and in 10 years, 44%.

Those are compelling numbers, and while they don’t equate to jobs that will be necessarily lost, the fact that AI will impact nearly half of the world’s employment in some way implies that we are looking at a change of a magnitude similar to that which followed the 19th-century industrial revolution. “This is an industrial revolution that is growing exponentially. It’s going to take less time to implement. We must make adjustments quickly and that’s why we are carrying out this research, to send a message of caution,” says Parrado. The goal of the index is to serve as a warning, so that, instead of having negative consequences, AI will bring benefits.

“We are optimistic, we think that technological change will raise productivity. The fact that there will be job replacement doesn’t mean that employment will fall, because there will be opportunities that come up to create new occupations. We’ve seen it happen in the past. We have had very pronounced technological shocks, and they haven’t led to a decrease in employment, but rather a readjustment in the job markets,” says Parrado.

To turn what seems at first glance a crisis in the job market into a benefit, the study’s authors make recommendations that should be followed by companies and governments. Education and training are the factors that will have the highest impact on the success of adapting to this new reality. “We recommend a significant investment in education and re-training programs that should focus on developing skills that are complementary to AI, such as in areas of critical thinking, creativity and emotional intelligence,” says Parrado.

Women, the most vulnerable population​

It also recommends supporting groups who are most vulnerable to the change, like women, who will be more deeply impacted due to the kinds of positions they occupy. “Women, in the United States as well as Mexico, are more vulnerable on the three timelines that we studied because they hold more office, administrative, service and support jobs that are vulnerable to AI. 40% of women will be affected by task automation, which is greater than the 38% of men who will be impacted. It’s important that this gender disparity be considered when it comes to setting policy,” says Parrado.

Vulnerability also varies throughout the socioeconomic hierarchy. Workers with less education and those whose jobs require less training will be more affected. When it comes to income, in the United States, people who earn less will be more vulnerable, while in Mexico, the change will impact both working-class and middle-class jobs. “AI could exacerbate global inequality, that’s why we have to act fast,” says Parrado.

The risk also varies by field. Workers whose jobs require more subjective criteria will be more difficult to replace. The index includes a list of the most and least vulnerable positions. In the former category are occupations like telephone operator, telemarketing, credit evaluators, machine operators and travel agencies, among others. In some cases, such as that of telephone operators, 92% of all positions will be affected.

Firefighters and athletes, irreplaceable​

On the other hand, there are some positions that will beat the AI changes, like those tied to sports, teaching and firefighting. One of the innovative aspects of the index is that it differentiates between tasks that each profession performs. It found that there are specialties within each profession that are more easily replaced than others. For example, in the field of medicine, it’s more likely that a radiologist will lose their job as compared to a psychologist, a maxillofacial surgeon or even a nurse.

No analysis has been done on the differences of AI vulnerability by race or origin, but knowing that African Americans and Latinos occupy more low-income jobs, it’s easy to extrapolate that they will be more affected by the development of new technology.

The goal of the IDB study is drive public and private policy towards counteracting the negative effects that AI will bring. In addition to education and training programs for workers to adapt to the transformation, it recommends that governments improve social safety nets, especially in the short term, including instituting more robust employment insurance and subsidies for individual workers to help in their transition to the new labor model. It also advises the promotion of ethical development, support for small businesses, and periodic evaluations of the labor market.

To take on a transformation of this scale, Parrado says that it will also be necessary to adapt educational programs, urging governments to include AI in school curriculums because, “this technological change is here to stay,” he says.

 

[Vandelay]

i struggle to see how they might retain or increase in value when AI will likely lead to an explosion of material science discoveries.

People forget why we got off gold in the first place.

 

[Micky Mikey]

With the re-strengthening of unions it will be interesting to see how they react to AI. Whats going to happen when human labor is less valuable than AI and robotics? And no not everyone can be retrained in AI. A significant number of people will be left out the labor market.

 

[bnew]