Not really
Since Goldwater, the Republican party has consisted of 'neoconservatives' and 'paleoconservatives'. Reagan/Bush were neocons. Paleoconservatives are like Buchanan, Trump, and these kinds of idiots. So Neocons had a lot of power with their globalist, expansionist policies, probably in part because they were willing to work with multinational companies to generate their wealth (cough, Cheney, Halleburton, Iraq etc.) However, the average GOP voter isn't some rich wall street guy, but some racist redneck hillbilly, so Trump was able to win the state primaries because the average pissed off rust-belt worker didn't fukk with Reaganite concepts that outsourced all their jobs.
From wiki:
Friction with paleoconservatism
Main article:
Neoconservatism and paleoconservatism
Starting during the 1980s, disputes concerning Israel and public policy contributed to a conflict with
paleoconservatives.
Pat Buchanan terms neoconservatism "a
globalist,
interventionist,
open borders ideology".
[101] Paul Gottfried has written that the neocons' call for "
permanent revolution" exists independently of their beliefs about Israel,
[102] characterizing the neos as "ranters out of a Dostoyevskian novel, who are out to practice permanent revolution courtesy of the U.S. government" and questioning how anyone could mistake them for conservatives.
[103] "What make neocons most dangerous are not their isolated ghetto hang-ups, like hating Germans and Southern whites and calling everyone and his cousin an anti-Semite, but the leftist revolutionary fury they express."
So there's a lot of overlap between neoliberals and neoconservatives, but fundamentally they share more in common with the paleos than with the democrats - even the moderate scumbags like Manchin.
Basically the neoconservatives were in control of the party for decades, and when these alt-right Trump idiots took over, they acted like they were gonna take their ball and go home - talking about "I'm not gonna vote for him!" in 2016, then later coming back "turns out I did vote for him
"
So they make it seem like they're gonna split, but the fact that both of their political ideologies are based on nationalism, 'patriotism', deeply ingrained white supremacy, anti-progressive policies, etc. means that they ain't going anywhere.
The better question is if older neoliberal democrats will start jumping ship for the republicans as the new pro-socialist wave takes over. Self-identified "capitalist"
Elizabeth Warren was a member of the GOP back in the day, so these geriatric, out of touch, moderate democrats turning coat is a lot more likely than any republican leaving for the democrats. Even McCain was flirting with welcoming Lieberman into the fold. The republicans are always trying to siphon voters from the democrats, democrats have the numbers so they aren't hurting to bring republicans to their side - they just need to keep voting open and transparent, which the republicans curve at every opportunity.