In Venezuela Maduro admits defeat. Now he wants to negotiate with Biden

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Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Venezuela’s Maduro Pleads for Foreign Capital, Biden Deal in Caracas Interview
He’s trying to persuade the U.S. president to ease sanctions.
Erik SchatzkerJune 18, 2021, 6:00 AM EDT
Versión en español

Seated on a gilded Louis XVI chair in his office at Miraflores, a sprawling, neo-Baroque palace in northwest Caracas, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro projects unflappable confidence.

The country, he says in an 85-minute interview with Bloomberg Television, has broken free of “irrational, extremist, cruel” U.S. oppression. Russia, China, Iran and Cuba are allies, his domestic opposition is impotent. If Venezuela suffers from a bad image, it’s because of a well-funded campaign to demonize him and his socialist government.

The bombast is predictable. But in between his denunciations of Yankee imperialism, Maduro, who’s been allowing dollars to circulate and private enterprise to flourish, is making a public plea and aiming it directly at Joe Biden. The message: It's time for a deal.

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Venezuela's Maduro Sees No 'Positive Sign' From Biden

Watch the full “Front Row” presentation: Maduro Speaks in Caracas

Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, is starved for capital and desperate to regain access to global debt and commodity markets after two decades of anti-capitalist transformation and four years of crippling U.S. sanctions. The country is in default, its infrastructure crumbling and life for millions a struggle for survival.

“If Venezuela can’t produce oil and sell it, can’t produce and sell its gold, can’t produce and sell its bauxite, can’t produce iron, etcetera, and can’t earn revenue in the international market, how is it supposed to pay the holders of Venezuelan bonds?” Maduro, 58, says, his palms upturned in appeal. “This world has to change. This situation has to change.”

In fact, much has changed since Donald Trump put the sanctions on Caracas and recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as president. His explicit goal, to drive Maduro from office, failed. Today, Guaido is marginalized, Venezuelans are suffering more than ever and Maduro remains firmly in power. “I’m here in this presidential palace!” he notes.

There has, however, been little of the one thing urgently needed to end the Western Hemisphere’s worst humanitarian disaster: compromise -- from Maduro, from his opposition, from Washington.

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Although he has denounced U.S. intervention, Maduro says he wants sanctions to be lifted by the Biden administration and foreign investments to flow in.

Photographer: Gaby Oraa/Bloomberg

Maduro hopes a deal to relieve the sanctions will open the floodgates to foreign investment, create jobs and reduce misery. It might even assure his legacy as the torchbearer of Chavismo, Venezuela’s peculiar brand of left-wing nationalism.

“Venezuela is going to become the land of opportunities,” he says. “I’m inviting U.S. investors so they don’t get left behind.”

Over the past few months, Democrats including Gregory Meeks, the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, Representative Jim McGovern and Senator Chris Murphy, have argued that the U.S. should reconsider its policy. Maduro, who these days rarely leaves Miraflores or the military base where he sleeps, has been waiting for a sign that the Biden administration is ready to negotiate.

“There hasn’t been a single positive sign,” he says. “None.”

A sudden turnabout seems unlikely. With broad support from Congress, the Trump administration cited Venezuela for human-rights violations, rigged elections, drug-trafficking, corruption and currency manipulation. The sanctions it placed on Maduro, his wife, dozens of officials and state-owned companies remain in place. While Biden’s policy of restoring democracy with “free and fair elections” is notably different from Trump's, the U.S. still considers Guaido Venezuela’s rightful leader.

Maduro has been giving a bit of ground. In recent weeks, he moved six executives -- five of them U.S. citizens -- from prison to house arrest, gave the political opposition two of five seats on the council responsible for national elections and allowed the World Food Program to enter the country.

The opposition, while fragmented, is talking about participating in the next round of elections in November. Norway is trying to facilitate talks between the two sides. Henrique Capriles, a key leader who lost to Maduro in the 2013 presidential vote, says it’s time for winner-take-all politics to end.

“There are people on Maduro’s side who also have noticed that the existential conflict isn’t good for their positions, because there’s no way the country is going to recover economically,” he says, taking time out from a visit to the impoverished Valles del Tuy region outside Caracas. “I imagine the government is under heavy internal pressure.”

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Henrique Capriles speaks to residents in the Valles del Tuy region of Venezuela on June 8.

Photographer: Gaby Oraa/Bloomberg

Venezuela’s economy was already a shambles by the time Maduro took office. His predecessor, Hugo Chavez, overspent wildly and created huge inefficiencies with a byzantine program of price controls, subsidies and the nationalization of hundreds of companies.

“When Chavez came into power, there were four steps you had to take to export a container of chocolate,” Jorge Redmond, chief executive officer of family-run Chocolates El Rey, explains at his sales office in the Caracas neighborhood of La Urbina. “Today there are 90 steps, and there are 19 ministries involved.”

Once the richest country in South America, Venezuela is now among the poorest. Inflation has been running at about 2,300% a year. By some estimates, the economy has shrunk by 80% in nine years -- the deepest depression in modern history.

Signs of decay are everywhere. At the foreign ministry in downtown Caracas, most of the lights are turned off and signs on the bathroom doors say, “No Water.” Employees at the central bank bring their own toilet paper.

Throughout the country, blackouts are daily occurrences. In Caracas, the subway barely works and gangs rule the barrios. Some 5.4 million Venezuelans, a fifth of the population, have fled abroad, causing strains across the continent. The border with Colombia is a lawless no-man’s land. Cuba, of all places, has provided humanitarian aid.

Sanctions on Venezuela date back to the presidency of George W. Bush. In 2017, the Trump administration barred access to U.S. financial markets, and it subsequently banned trading in Venezuelan debt and doing business with the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA.

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Venezuela's Maduro: U.S. Should Lift 'Immoral' Sanctions

The offensive was brutally effective, accelerating the economic collapse. Last year, Venezuelan oil production slid to 410,000 barrels a day, the lowest in more than a century. According to the government, 99% of the country’s export revenue has been wiped out.

All along, Maduro was working back channels, trying to start negotiations with the U.S. He sent his foreign minister to a meeting at Trump Tower in New York and her brother, then the communications minister, to one in Mexico City.

Maduro says he almost had a one-on-one with Trump himself at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2018. The White House, he recalls, had called to make arrangements, only to break off contact. Maduro blames it on the foreign-policy hawks in Trump’s orbit, many of them in thrall to Venezuelan expats in Florida.

“The pressures were unbearable for him,” he says. “Had we met, history might be different.”

A onetime bus driver and union leader, Maduro has proven the consummate survivor. He defeated rivals to cement control of the United Sociality Party after Chavez died in 2013, withstood attacks in 2018 and 2019, and outlasted Trump.

Guaido, who worked closely with the U.S. campaign to oust Maduro, has been forced to shift strategy from regime change to negotiations.

“I support any effort that delivers a free and fair election,” Guaido says in his makeshift offices in Eastern Caracas, surrounded by unofficial, state-by-state counts of Covid-19 cases. “Venezuela is worn out, not just the democratic alternative but the dictatorship, the whole country.”

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Juan Guaido during a Bloomberg Television interview in Caracas on June 8. He expressed guarded willingness to negotiate with Maduro.

Photographer: Gaby Oraa/Bloomberg

If Maduro feels the heat, he doesn’t show it. Several times a week, often for as long as 90 minutes, he appears on state TV to blast the “economic blockade” and pledge his servitude to the people’s power. The populist theatrics drive home a carefully scripted narrative: Venezuela’s sovereignty, dignity and right to self-determination are being trampled by the immoral abuse of financial power.

During the interview, Maduro insists he won’t budge if the U.S. continues to hold a proverbial gun to his head. Any demands for changes in domestic policy are “game over.”

“We would turn into a colony, we would turn into a protectorate,” he says. “No country in the world -- no country, and even less Venezuela -- is willing to kneel down and betray its legacy.”

The reality, as every Venezuelan knows, is Maduro has already been forced to make major concessions. Guided by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and her adviser, Patricio Rivera, a former Ecuadoran economy minister, he eliminated price controls, pared subsidies, dropped restrictions on imports, allowed the bolivar to float freely against the dollar and created incentives for private investment.

Rural areas continue to suffer, but in Caracas the impact has been dramatic. Customers no longer have to pay with stacks of banknotes and the supermarket aisles, far from being bare, are often piled high.

Maduro even passed a law full of guarantees for private investors.

The reforms are so orthodox, they could be mistaken for an International Monetary Fund stabilization program, hardly the stuff of Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution. Maduro responds that they’re tools of a “war economy.” Sure, dollarization has been “a useful escape valve” for consumers and businesses, but it and the other reluctant nods to capitalism are temporary.

“Sooner rather than later, the bolivar will once again occupy a strong and preponderant role in the economic and commercial life of the country,” he says.

It wasn’t so long ago that the U.S. saw Venezuela as a strategic ally. Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips and Chevron Corp. had major holdings in the country’s oil industry and refineries in Texas and Louisiana were retooled to process heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. Wealthy Venezuelans traveled to Miami so frequently, they talked about it like a second home.

All that changed when Chavez was elected in 1998. He expropriated billions of dollars in U.S. oil assets and built alliances with socialists in Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador.

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Although Maduro is seeking better relations with Washington, he has built close ties with Russia, Iran and China.

Photographer: Gaby Oraa/Bloomberg

Maduro has gone further, embracing Washington’s most threatening enemies. He describes the relationship with Russia as “extraordinary” and sends a birthday card to Chinese President Xi Jinping. It’s a taunt to Biden: Keep mistreating Venezuela and you’ll be dealing with another Castro, not a leader who still holds out hope for a win-win deal.

Guests at the VIP Lounge at Simon Bolivar International Airport were reminded of Venezuela’s new friendships. Three clocks mounted in a vertical row showed the time in Caracas, Moscow and Beijing.

Asked in the interview what they signify, Maduro replies that the “world of the future is in Asia.” But an idea crosses his mind. Perhaps, he says, there should be clocks for New Delhi, Madrid and New York, too.

The following afternoon, there are indeed six clocks on the lounge wall. In this country, Maduro is still all-powerful.

Except for one thing: Like so much else in Venezuela, the clocks don’t work.
 

DEAD7

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Venezuela’s economy was already a shambles by the time Maduro took office. His predecessor, Hugo Chavez, overspent wildly and created huge inefficiencies with a byzantine program of price controls, subsidies and the nationalization of hundreds of companies.
:wow:
 

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Shocker Bloomberg frames a neocon narrative in that way.

US led sanctions on Venezuelan Oil is responsible for tanking their economy more than anything else. Now the IMF is blocking them from their money - of course they're going to negotiate. It's what the IMF was designed to do, break the will of subordinate countries who go against private business interests that the IMF protects. fukk the sovereignty of the country.
 

Secure Da Bag

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Venezuela has Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China as backers. And still is in that shape. You know the international scene took notice. BRICS who?
 

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Venezuela has Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China as backers. And still is in that shape. You know the international scene took notice. BRICS who?
Cuba and iran can do nothing but launder money for them. China doesn't care...yet.

And Russia is just givin them scraps.

C'mon now. Maduro is literally begging for American money.
 

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Cuba and iran can do nothing but launder money for them. China doesn't care...yet.

And Russia is just givin them scraps.

C'mon now. Maduro is literally begging for American money.

So basically his two biggest backers left him hanging instead of making him a major player on the continent. Interesting. :ehh:
 

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So basically his two biggest backers left him hanging instead of making him a major player on the continent. Interesting. :ehh:
Yeah. Look at how everyone is basically itching back up to the USA.

China doesn't have the lock on South America a lot of the doom and gloom types swear it does.
 

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BOGOTÁ, Colombia — The Biden administration and the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have agreed to a deal in which the U.S. would ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and the authoritarian state would allow a competitive, internationally monitored presidential election next year, according to two people familiar with the breakthrough talks.

The sanctions relief is to be announced after Maduro’s government and Venezuela’s U.S.-backed opposition sign an agreement to include commitments by the socialist government to allow a freer vote in 2024, the people said. They’re expected to do that during a meeting in Barbados on Tuesday with U.S. officials in attendance.

Maduro, who claimed victory in a 2018 election widely viewed as fraudulent, would agree to a process for lifting bans on opposition candidates running, one of the people said, though it is not clear how quickly that process would take place. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the talks.

A senior administration official said the deal did not include plans to unfreeze Venezuelan assets currently held in the United States. The U.S. is likely to put a time limit on any sanctions relief so that it could be reversed if Maduro didn’t comply with his end of deal.

Maduro would commit to accepting international electoral observations and opening up media access for the elections. It was not clear if the deal would also involve the release of political prisoners in Venezuela.

The meeting in Barbados is to be announced Monday morning. The delegations are to arrive this afternoon.

If the deal is signed, the U.S. government is prepared to announce the lifting of certain oil sanctions against Venezuela, the two people said. The sanctions relief could include a general license for Venezuela’s state-owned oil agency to resume business with the United States and other countries.

U.S. officials have said they would consider easing sanctions if Maduro laid the groundwork for free and fair presidential elections. A State Department representative did not respond to a request for comment.

The agreement comes days before Venezuela’s opposition parties plan to hold a primary vote to chose a single candidate to back against Maduro. The front-runner in the unofficial primary, María Corina Machado, is one of several opposition leaders the Maduro government has barred from running for office. The disqualification was sharply condemned by the U.S. government.

The United States has imposed sanctions against the Venezuelan government or Venezuelan individuals for more than 15 years, but significantly tightened them in early 2019 after declaring Maduro’s 2018 victory illegitimate.

The Trump administration sanctioned Venezuela’s state oil company, the central bank and key government officials. Then it imposed a wider economic embargo. It froze the property and interests of the Maduro government in the United States and prohibited Americans from doing business with the government.

The deal emerged from direct talks between Biden administration officials and Maduro government representatives that began last year during the start of the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration began easing restrictions on Chevron, the main U.S. oil company with assets in Venezuela, in a gesture intended to support talks between the Maduro government and the opposition.

The U.S. also announced this month it would resume direct deportation flights to Venezuela, another sign of thawing relations between the two countries. The strained relationship had limited the United States’ ability to return undocumented Venezuelan migrants.
 

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Sounds like diplomacy in action. They kiss the ring in Washington, allow free elections and sanctions go bye bye. Lower gas prices for us and better economic outlook for them. Win win for everybody.

The last guy would probably invade and take the oil, or let China/Russia take over their oil
 

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Venezuela’s Economy Poised to Strengthen With Sanctions Relief
U.S. officials bet that a more prosperous economy, free elections will stem outflow of migrants toward U.S.

By Juan Forero and Kejal VyasOct. 19, 2023 at 8:23 pm ET
A migrant family from Venezuela reacts after breaking through a razor wire barricade into the U.S. in Eagle Pass, Texas, last month.
Removing sanctions for six months on oil, gas and the mining sector as announced by U.S. officials Wednesday night is expected by economists to boost an economy that had contracted 80% and led 7.7 million people to flee over the last decade. Hundreds of thousands of them wound up in the U.S. Scenes of Venezuelans crowding the U.S. border and crowding shelters in New York and other cities have challenged President Biden, who faces a re-election next year.

Talks between U.S. and Venezuelan envoys in recent months led to a tentative breakthrough, with Biden administration officials announcing American and foreign companies could produce and export Venezuelan oil and gas and conduct business with state-energy monopoly Petróleos de Venezuela. In what U.S. officials called a “partial agreement,” Venezuela would pave the way toward fair elections by respecting the opposition’s choice of candidate, letting rivals campaign on state media and permitting international observers to monitor the vote.


A Petróleos de Venezuela oil refinery at the Paraguaná Refinery Complex in Punto Fijo, Falcón State, Venezuela. Photo: Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg News

Oil waste stains the waters of Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela. Photo: Ariana Cubillos/Associated Press
The sharp shift in U.S. policy means Venezuela would over a year’s time have access to at least $4 billion in oil money simply by being able to export to the U.S. that is in contrast to current customers as far away as China, who import Venezuelan oil at heavy discounts to market prices due to sanctions, said Francisco Rodriguez, an economist who has had a working relationship with Venezuelan officials.

Jacking up production between 250,000 and 600,000 barrels a day from the 824,000 pumped daily in September could mean anywhere from $10 billion to $19 billion annually in government revenue, he said. Once Latin America’s fifth-largest economy, Venezuela’s is now the size of the Milwaukee metropolitan area, according to International Monetary Fund data.

“When the United States imposed sanctions it had a significant impact because Venezuela had lost its most important market, and many markets around the world didn’t want to do business with Venezuela,” Rodriguez said. “Now there’s space for Venezuela to produce more oil.”

Thomas Shannon, a former high-ranking U.S. diplomat in Latin America, said that the sanctions had the unintended effect of accelerating migration while severing communications between Washington and Caracas. By discussing an oil opening, the issue of political prisoners and migration, including the repatriation of deported Venezuelans to their homeland, Shannon said, “both sides are looking for a way forward in the relationship.”

If American companies working with the state firm, best known as PdVSA, do raise oil production, U.S. officials and economists say, then Venezuela could begin to ease a humanitarian crisis marked by 400% annual inflation, a nearly worthless currency and often dysfunctional water and electricity services.

“I think the administration is hoping that if [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro holds up his end of the bargain, sanctions relief will translate to economic improvements on the ground, which will cause fewer Venezuelans to flee,” said Geoff Ramsey, an analyst with the Washington-based Atlantic Council who closely monitored the negotiations. “However, the reality is that Venezuelans are not only fleeing economic collapse, but they are also fleeing authoritarianism and systemic human rights violations. So, ultimately the impact that this will have on the flow of Venezuelan migrants will also depend on Maduro sticking to his commitments.”


American officials say they want to see Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro restore candidates’ electoral rights by the end of November. Photo: Leonardo Fernandez viloria/Reuters

Maria Corina Machado is the opposition’s most likely candidate for next year’s presidential elections. Photo: Ariana Cubillos/Associated Press
Already, there are questions about those commitments, even as U.S. officials have been clear that the sanctions could be revoked or amended should the regime fail to make progress.

On Thursday, Jorge Rodriguez, Maduro’s top negotiator and a powerful figure in the government, said Venezuelan officials won’t permit some of the opposition presidential hopefuls to run in next year’s elections. In a news conference, Rodriguez lambasted his U.S. counterparts for their insistence that Caracas lift its prohibition on Maria Corina Machado from holding office. Machado is the opposition’s most likely candidate for next year’s elections.

“Venezuela doesn’t accept pressures, blackmail, nor bribes or meddling from any other country,” Rodriguez said in a news conference. “Can a person who is sanctioned…and deemed politically ineligible be a presidential candidate? No they cannot.”

American officials say they want to see Maduro restore candidates’ electoral rights by the end of November or face a reversal in the U.S. opening.
 

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Part 2:


Among those who have cast doubts on the U.S.-Maduro arrangement is Machado herself, who polls show is slated to easily win a primary on Sunday to choose the opposition’s candidate. In a statement, the conservative politician, who had long favored international pressure against Maduro, said she had no role in the agreement signed by the opposition’s negotiators on Tuesday. She noted the regime’s long history of breaking promises.

Nations that guided the process, including Norway and the U.S., “must serve as guarantors for the Venezuelan people,” she said.

People familiar with the negotiations said that the U.S. was driven by a range of objectives, from trying to coax the Maduro regime to making reforms that could re-establish democracy to seeking a new source of oil amid conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. American policy makers, though, have also spoken about the impact that a more prosperous and democratic Venezuela would have on migration.

Large numbers of the Venezuelan migrants arriving to the U.S. border come directly from their home country, suggesting the outflow remains heavy, Juan Gonzalez, the National Security Council director for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said at a forum last year. “It’s in our interest that political and economic stability return to tackle migration.”


A family from Venezuela reacts after getting into the U.S., following hours of waiting on a riverbank on the Rio Grande. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

A woman in shackles is patted down in Harlingen, Texas, before boarding the first deportation flight of undocumented Venezuelans after a U.S.-Venezuelan agreement. Photo: Veronica G. Cardenas/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The lifting of sanctions was touted by Biden’s Democratic allies in Congress, among them Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D., Wash.), who said that the policy had “served to increase migration throughout the region, harmed untold numbers of civilians, and exacerbated the situation at our southern border.”

Some Venezuelans, hearing the news, were hopeful their country would soon welcome back people who have left. Alejandro Briceño, who is unemployed, thought of his daughter, who left in 2021, crossed the U.S. southwestern border and lives in Ohio.

“She left for the United States when the pandemic was ending and she has not been able to find stable work,” said Briceño, who’d like to see his daughter come home. “I know we’re going to see better times now” in Venezuela, he said.

Others, though, were skeptical that there would be change.

Amneris Serrano, a Venezuelan maid in Bogotá, Colombia, with two school-age children, said she believes they have more opportunities there and not in Venezuela. “Over there, there are no teachers,” she said, or parents have to pay for them. “I’m here with my children. They are going to school. If I go, I lose everything I’ve worked for.”

In Caracas, the lifting of sanctions was welcomed by ordinary people who had complained of the collateral damage they caused. For example, small private companies couldn’t access financing from abroad because sanctions against Venezuela’s central bank led international financial institutions to close off ties.

Restarting the oil industry is essential for a country almost entirely dependent on crude export revenues, said Luis Oliveros, an oil economist at Caracas’ Metropolitan University. The removal of sanctions also undercuts Maduro’s long-held argument that the U.S. sanctions cause the country’s economic difficulties.

“Now he can’t use the excuse that everything is the sanctions’ fault,” said Oliveros. “It isn’t going to work anymore. The ball is totally on Maduro’s side now.”

Jenny Carolina Gonzalez and Ryan Dube contributed to this article.

Write to Juan Forero at juan.forero@wsj.com and Kejal Vyas at kejal.vyas@wsj.com
 

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:mjlol: so Maduro is done out here being that he can’t affect the election outcome next year
He most likely will.

This agreement signing happened in Barbados as Norway has been convening Maduro's representatives and the opposition. U.S. officials were also in Barbados for the signing. But the agreement doesn't have a mechanism for reversing bans on political candidates.

The opposition seems to be unified behind Maria Machado but she has been banned by the Venezuelan courts, stuffed with Chavismo allies, from running. So...

Also, U.S. officials have been talking to the Venezuelans in Qatar about allowing more foreign oil companies to come in so Venezuela can finance debt repayments if Maduro continues talks with the opposition.
 
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