Marlins surging in NL East
The Miami Marlins were one of the biggest stories this past offseason, as they signed a trio of high-priced free agents -- Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes -- and hired a flashy new manager in Ozzie Guillen to add some spice to the unveiling of their new ballpark. With a slow start, it seemed that they were all sizzle and no steak -- they had been ranked in the bottom 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings in each of the past two weeks.
But after winning 10 of their past 12 games, the Marlins have moved up 10 spots from last week and rank 12th this week. And with 21 of their next 29 games at home, the Fish may be about to start asserting themselves.
With an 8-6 mark at home, the Marlins are just one of two teams yet to play 15 home games (the Atlanta Braves are the other). The limited early reps may have been making it harder for Miami to find a rhythm in its new building. At the end of April, the Marlins had a four-game home series with the Arizona Diamondbacks that was preceded by five road games and followed by a nine-game road trip.
They went 1-3 in the series and were outscored by 12 runs against Arizona, but after taking two of three from the Mets at home this weekend, the Marlins seem to be finding their footing in their new park.
For all the talk of how the park was hurting their numbers, the Fish have actually hit well at home thus far. The team's .285 road wOBA ranks just 26th in the game, but its .333 home wOBA ranks 11th. Of course, we can likely chalk that up to the vagaries of small samples, and the club really turned things around on that long road trip, when it won seven straight. Leading the charge was Reyes, who is starting to feel comfortable in his new uniform.
He tallied just a .267 wOBA in April, but he has been much better since the calendar turned to May and is sporting a .372 mark for the month. He's not alone, either. Three other Marlins regulars -- John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio and Giancarlo Stanton -- posted wOBAs of .290 or worse in April and are at .370 or better in May. Only Gaby Sanchez has struggled throughout the year.
Not everyone has struggled, of course. Omar Infante is slugging .611, and while that won't last, the ZiPS projection system sees him slugging .414 the rest of the way. (He slugged .383 last season.)
With the hitting now starting to figure itself out, the club's biggest concern is ace Josh Johnson. His 5.87 ERA would seem to indicate that he is struggling, but much of that rests in his .403 batting average on balls in play, which is 124 points higher than any other Marlins starter and is easily the worst mark in the game at the moment.
Once that normalizes he should do just fine, assuming his shoulder remains attached, as his advanced numbers are all crisp as usual. Although Johnson has lost some velocity on his fastball, he isn't suddenly a soft tosser -- he is still averaging 92.7 mph on his four-seamer and has yet to throw one slower than 90 mph this season.
Finally, there's Anibal Sanchez. For the second straight season, Sanchez has been one of the game's best pitchers. Now in his third straight full season with the Fish, Sanchez has increased his strikeout rate and sliced his walk rate in each of them, and his 10.26 K's per nine now stands as the fifth best mark in baseball. It's still early, and Sanchez is still relatively unknown compared to the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay and Stephen Strasburg, but if he keeps pitching like he has, he will be a dark horse in the National League Cy Young race.
The Marlins started slow, and whether or not it was due to the lack of home games, they are now locked in. They are still in fourth place in the NL East, but with the Phillies and Nationals banged up and the Mets seemingly overachieving, look for the Marlins to continue their ascent up the division standings.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider.