The new electoral map from this redistricting cycle largely maintained its previous balance of power. But what if it hadn’t? FiveThirtyEight explores what the national congressional map would look like if only Republicans or only Democrats had won every redistricting fight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Yes, even if the democrats passed their best possible maps, they barely reach majority, and that's more of a dream scenario than anything.
Republicans play the game well and they have the courts, all the way up to the SCOTUS, as evidenced by recent rulings, backing their maps which specifically target the black vote and any other voting blocs they consider a problem and group them to minimize their impact. So the Republicans redistrict black people often, which also plays into schooling and other important things, they present the map, Democrats appeal the map, the lower court can either block or approve, if blocked by luck, Republicans appeal to the SCOTUS, the SCOTUS rules against the block and the map is put into approval moving forward.
It's not even enough for the lower courts to block and the SCOTUS somehow backing it, like in NC, the Republicans will come back with new wording that somehow doesn't negate the constitutional rights of black people and the maps are typically approved even though it clearly sections black people in a way that weakens their vote.
Great intro on the topic:
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle.
fivethirtyeight.com
I would say, the two biggest things that need to happen in America, as it's corrupting the process:
1. Election reform
2. Money out of politics
Those two aspects need great attention by the American people before we can get anything serious done. So if your local/federal candidates aren't mentioning that, it's hard to take them serious. There are a host of grassroot groups, some local (Georgia especially) and national that promote candidates that are removed from lobbyist money, and push for that to be a goal nationwide while working for election reform. The most popular members of the house, Rashida, AOC, Ayanna Pressley, Ro Khanna, Katie Porter, etc., are all grassroot legislators, all tough to beat in their districts and all started with small donation fundraising to beat the incumbent ghouls in their areas. Now what would be best, is if we can work on reforming the House, which is much easier, but eventually get these kinds of people in the Senate as well. We really just need to always be getting ghouls out of office and anyone aspiring to become a ghoul, which is typically made obvious by their rhetoric and of course, their public donors.