Ice Trae The Gang: Official 2018 Atlanta Hawks Offseason Thread

Who should the Hawks take at #3?


  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .

Rickdogg44

RIP Charmander RIP Kobe
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Atlanta

Box Factory

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#byrdgang

:14 :dead:

:52 :dead:

1:12 :dead:

1:40 :dead:

2:10 :dead:

2:22 :dead:

2:40 :dead:

3:08 :laff:

4:10 :scusthov:

4:20 :laff:

They're down by double digits for the whole entire video and then video skips from the 3rd quarter to the end of the fourth and they're within 2 because he got benched :dead:

"Trae was garbage for his all but the last 5 minutes of summer league and a general consenus joke, but those last 5 minutes of passes to open guys :whew::myman:"

Could be a decent backup to Dorsey one day:ld:

Enjoy guys :heh:
 

#1 pick

The Smart Negroes
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Lamb of God
True Shooting % Assist % AST/TO Ratio Usage Rate
Trae Young (SL Overall) 41.7% 30.6% 1.52 27.3%
Trae Young (SL Vegas) 59.4% 38.2% 1.9 24.7%
Trae Young (College) 58.5% 48.6% 1.67 37.1%
League Average* (approx.) 55.5% 25% 1.62 20%
Dennis Schröder* 51.5% 35.2% 2.28 30.5%
Lebron James* 62.1% 43.2% 2.15 31.6%
Stephen Curry* 67.5% 30.3% 2.03 29.7%
* Stats from 2017-2018 season

Yes, I know sample size is important and Dennis, Lebron, Trae, and Steph aren't anywhere close to the same players, but this is meant to analyze his performance in Summer League over 6 games and how it compares to our current starting PG and players elite at passing and 3-point shooting. Also, note that in 1 game during Summer League Vegas, Young only played 10 minutes as a result of a banged up knee and muscle soreness.

True Shooting %
This statistic takes every shooting measurement recorded within the game (2's, 3's, FTs) and weighs them against each other (hence FTs counting less) to calculate the best measure of shooting ability possible. However, missed 3's and missed 2's do count the same despite made 3's counting more than made 2's. The chart shows that in the total 6 games that Young has played so far, he's not doing so well, but since Summer League Vegas has started he's returned to familiar, above average TS% which we've all been able to see from the actual games. Taking into account that he prioritizes 3's and his struggle to finish at the rim so far, I would say 59.4% is about what we would expect from him. Obviously there is room for improvement.

Formula:

Points / (2 \ (Field-Goals Attempted + 0.44 * Free-Throws Attempted))*

Assist %
Assist percentage is meant to adjust for the pace of play, volume of shots, and minutes played in order to obtain a good indication of the percentage that each teammate on the floor is being assisted by the player. It is useful to see how effective a player is in getting assists on each possession. Young's assist percentage in college was absolutely ridiculous, comparable to Steph Curry's 40% in his college career. This could probably be a result of both being the main option for both scoring and passing on pretty bad teams. Obviously, if you're a step above everybody else you will be the near exclusive ballhandler who will be making the majority of passing decisions, especially when constant doubles open your teammates for shots. I would expect Young's AST% to be anywhere between 30-40% this season with his passing vision/accuracy and so far, even through good and bad games, he has met those expectations. It should only become higher and more consistent with experience and better teammates who can make more open looks.

Formula:

100 \ Assists / (((Minutes Played / (Total Minutes Played / 5)) * Total Field-Goals Made) - Field-Goals Made)*

Assist/Turnover Ratio
There's not too much to say here. One knock on Young out of college was his turnovers, and looking at the numbers, he's definitely not where you want your NBA starting point guard to be. For what it's worth, Steph had about a 1.3 AST/TO ratio in his last 2 years at Davidson, but jumped to a reasonable 1.85 in his first two years in the NBA. Experience and teammates who are ready to catch your dimes can do a lot for this statistic and Young's vision appears to surpass Steph's. Another thing to take into account is how high Trae's usage rate was in college. The more you're involved in each play on the floor, the more likely you are to be involved in a turnover. Trae has made some inaccurate passes in Summer League and the pressure he's getting defensively does not seem to be helping. However, in his recent games, the floor has opened up a bit and he seems to have gotten through the initial nerves of an NBA debut. 1.9 is right about where I would expect his career average to hover, provided he improves. Anything more would be a major bonus. NOTE: Schröder's stat here is very favorable because he played significantly less games than usual, his career ratio is closer to 1.9-2.

Usage Rate
All the numbers in this calculation essentially end up indicating what percentage of plays on the floor involved the player as long as the play ends in a turnover, free throw, or field goal attempt. This stat favors those who shoot more than pass and vice versa because a player could be involved in great ball movement that ends in a basket, but that pass will not be included in usage rate. The number should be 1/5 of the team on average, but obviously players who can increase that without losing efficiency, should. The top 50 usage rates are between 25-35% and I would say the sweet spot for coaches and ball-dominant players would be around 30% barring that your player is having an MVP-type season and is the focal point of the offense. USG% is more helpful to put context to the rest of the player's statistics, but we can see that Young's was ridiculous in college and it is probably hovering in the high 20's as a result of the Summer League rotations, a missed game, and learning to play within a system.

Formula:

100 * ((Field-Goals Attempted + 0.44 * Free-Throws Attempted + Turnovers) * (Total Minutes Played / 5))/(Minutes Played * (Total Field-Goals Attempted + 0.44 * Total Free-Throws Attempted + Total Turnovers))

EDIT: TL;DR:

True Shooting Percentage: Young's offensive game has improved overtime in Summer League and is closer to his college stats. I would expect that to increase considering context.

Assist Percentage: The numbers show that in every circumstance, good, bad, league-wide, Summer League, and college, Young's ability to assist his teammates is already at an extremely high level. Look for it to increase as his career progresses.

AST/TO Ratio: Doesn't look great right now, however in the past 3-4 games, his turnover to assist ratio has gotten significantly better. Would expect his TO numbers to be closer to his recent games, especially with time and better teammates.

Usage Rate: Huge in college, about normal now considering it's Summer League. I mainly included this stat in order to provide context for the others.
 
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