Whatever the explanation,
his challenge among low-turnout voters is broad, spanning virtually every demographic group. As noted in a
previous newsletter, the Black and Hispanic voters who skipped the midterms are unusually likely to back Mr. Trump (though not by majority support). Similarly, Mr. Biden holds a 51-33 advantage among young voters who turned out in the midterms, but just a 43-36 lead among those who did not.
Perhaps surprisingly, the pattern even extends to college graduates. Mr. Biden leads by just 11 points among college graduates who skipped the midterms, compared with a 19-point lead among those who turned out. College-educated Democrats who skipped the midterms back Mr. Biden by just 70-9, while college-educated Democrats who turned out in the midterms back him, 98-0.