The estimated distributional effects are — how should I put this? —
mixed. Under no scenario does more than 12% of the financial benefit accrue to the bottom income quintile. The optimal scenario is (not coincidentally), $10,000 in relief with a $125,000 income cap. That would maximize the combined benefit for the bottom and second income quintiles, shown with bars in the figure (below) for simplicity.
Amusingly (and remember, I’m allowed to laugh at this because I lean Progressive, so I’m effectively laughing at myself), the worst outcome results from no-questions-asked, $50,000 forgiveness. In that scenario, almost 3% of the benefits would go to the top 5% of earners, and 8% to the top 10%. That’s not surprising. Those earning more than $150,000 per year are more likely to have jobs requiring expensive, advanced degrees.
Note that using Penn’s estimate for the year-one cost of $50,000 in relief with no income cap, the 2.43% of benefits which would accrue to borrowers in the top 5% of earners equates to nearly $20 billion.
Crucially (and unfortunately) more than two-thirds of the debt relief accrues to borrowers in the top 60% of the income distribution in all scenarios. The distributional outcome doesn’t change if you control for so-called “lifecycle effects” by limiting the analysis to borrowers aged 25 to 35.
Update: On Wednesday, the Biden administration confirmed $10,000 in debt relief per borrower subject to income, with additional relief for Pell Grant recipients. The payment moratorium will be exte…
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