Horn of Africa Regional Thread

[thatrapsfan]

Don’t buy it, you guys are taking every single pro govenrment claim hook line and sinker without even a hint of skepticism.

How many Tigrayans live in Addis? It’s one thing to argue they may politically support TPLF, but to argue thousands are legitimate targets for law enforcement operations is just wild. The clip itself ( from a sympathetic journo) gives you a hint of how it’s indiscriminate. At end of the day the huge loser will be Ethiopia rather than TPLF. Inevitably this will ensure even greater support for the rebellion among Tigrayans. It’s extremely short sighted and the long term damage will last for generations.

Also don’t buy the idea their military success is explained by “sleeper cells”. Communal violence under shadow of war is one thing, but trying to pin military defeats to conspiracy of civilian residents is low level propaganda.

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

Don’t buy it, you guys are taking every single pro govenrment claim hook line and sinker without even a hint of skepticism.

How many Tigrayans live in Addis? It’s one thing to argue they may politically support TPLF, but to argue thousands are legitimate targets for law enforcement operations is just wild. The clip itself ( from a sympathetic journo) gives you a hint of how it’s indiscriminate. At end of the day the huge loser will be Ethiopia rather than TPLF. Inevitably this will ensure even greater support for the rebellion among Tigrayans. It’s extremely short sighted and the long term damage will last for generations.

Also don’t buy the idea their military success is explained by “sleeper cells”. Communal violence under shadow of war is one thing, but trying to pin military defeats to conspiracy of civilian residents is low level propaganda.

Do you believe ethnic cleansing of Tigrayan people from the capital is the governments goal?

I agree that these kinds of operations will wrap up ppl that are competent innocent. That is the nature of war. Ideally those innocents will be quickly released. I think the issue some have is 1) it shouldn't be ignored who ultimately was responsible for this war kicking off and 2) sleeper cells are incredibly effective and allow the enemy to leverage relatively small groups of ppl into disproportionately greater military outcomes. It's one of the reasons the US could never defeat the Taliban. Sleeper cells give the enemy info on troop movements, help spread propoganda, and are critical for effective/accurate shelling by providing targeting feedback. Look at this within context of the TPLF announcing it's plans to march into and take the capital. People are demanding the govt take chances that no other government in the world would accept under similar circumstances.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Do you believe ethnic cleansing of Tigrayan people from the capital is the governments goal?

I agree that these kinds of operations will wrap up ppl that are competent innocent. That is the nature of war. Ideally those innocents will be quickly released. I think the issue some have is 1) it shouldn't be ignored who ultimately was responsible for this war kicking off and 2) sleeper cells are incredibly effective and allow the enemy to leverage relatively small groups of ppl into disproportionately greater military outcomes. It's one of the reasons the US could never defeat the Taliban. Sleeper cells give the enemy info on troop movements, help spread propoganda, and are critical for effective/accurate shelling by providing targeting feedback. Look at this within context of the TPLF announcing it's plans to march into and take the capital. People are demanding the govt take chances that no other government in the world would accept under similar circumstances.

Look at video from Channel 4, this isn’t a finely tuned professional operation by any means. Random “neighbourhood committees” informing and rounding up people solely on basis of ethnic background and language with state backing shows Ethiopia is in precipice of even greater disaster than it’s already in. What you’re suggesting is ideal, isn’t consistent with how Ethiopian state operates, neither under Abiy or under TPLF. No hint of due process will be afforded to any of these people and it’ll undoubtedly serve to strengthen support for TPLF, rather than weaken it among general Tigrayan population.


Also your implication that the Ethiopian Government is fighting this war with one hand behind its back isn’t supported by facts at all, they havent been constrained by international criticism at all.

It’s actions from a government reeling from huge military losses falling back on populist maneuvering and rhetoric to explain battlefield reversals the population did not expect. At the expense of major damage to social fabric of biggest urban area in the country.

Speaking of misleading propaganda, it’s telling there is radio silence when faced with evidence the government is receiving major logistical backing from the UAE:

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

I absolutely agree that shyt went sideways for the government and military. Sounds like they were hoping rapid successes would push TPLF to negotiate in a weakened position. That's not what happened. Lot of reasons why and there are multiple factors operating simultaneously (outside political/military pressure and influence, Ethiopian weather/agricultural seasons, historical ethnic beef etc etc). Obviously anything the govt does is after cost/benefit analysis. They're not going to do something in interest of placating the US/EU/UN if they think it makes a TPLF victory even marginally more likely.

Nothing has caused more damage to the social fabric than TPLF rule over the last 30 yrs. The fact that Tigrayans who enthusiastically supported and we're corruptly enriched by the TPLF we're still operating in the open in Addis Ababa should tell you something. How many non Tigrayans even live in Tigray, let alone own businesses or otherwise occupy positions of influence?

Regarding the UAE, a duly elevated government is allowed to buy weapons or whatever it wants from other nations. I mean you do at least believe in the right of an independent nation to engage in international commerce, right?

 

[Conan]

Very insightful thread.

 

[dtownreppin214]

Don’t buy it, you guys are taking every single pro govenrment claim hook line and sinker without even a hint of skepticism.

How many Tigrayans live in Addis? It’s one thing to argue they may politically support TPLF, but to argue thousands are legitimate targets for law enforcement operations is just wild. The clip itself ( from a sympathetic journo) gives you a hint of how it’s indiscriminate. At end of the day the huge loser will be Ethiopia rather than TPLF. Inevitably this will ensure even greater support for the rebellion among Tigrayans. It’s extremely short sighted and the long term damage will last for generations.

Also don’t buy the idea their military success is explained by “sleeper cells”. Communal violence under shadow of war is one thing, but trying to pin military defeats to conspiracy of civilian residents is low level propaganda.

Pro-government? You're being ridiculous. The first video is literally from the same source (Channel 4) you referenced in your previous post lol. The second source is coming straight out of the mouths of the drivers.

What could you possibly think their rationale is for these arrests if you don't believe anything nefarious happened in Dessie or with the aid/trucks?

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Tigray conflict: Once a trusted Western ally, Ethiopia becomes a strategic headache

Sad

 

[thatrapsfan]

I absolutely agree that shyt went sideways for the government and military. Sounds like they were hoping rapid successes would push TPLF to negotiate in a weakened position. That's not what happened. Lot of reasons why and there are multiple factors operating simultaneously (outside political/military pressure and influence, Ethiopian weather/agricultural seasons, historical ethnic beef etc etc). Obviously anything the govt does is after cost/benefit analysis. They're not going to do something in interest of placating the US/EU/UN if they think it makes a TPLF victory even marginally more likely.

Nothing has caused more damage to the social fabric than TPLF rule over the last 30 yrs. The fact that Tigrayans who enthusiastically supported and we're corruptly enriched by the TPLF we're still operating in the open in Addis Ababa should tell you something. How many non Tigrayans even live in Tigray, let alone own businesses or otherwise occupy positions of influence?

Regarding the UAE, a duly elevated government is allowed to buy weapons or whatever it wants from other nations. I mean you do at least believe in the right of an independent nation to engage in international commerce, right?

No debate the TPLF misruled the country and that it was both corrupt and extremely authoritarian. But I don’t see how that provided cover or a rationale for current Governments actions. Abiy frames himself as a clean break from that legacy. Never mind the fact that he is very much a creature of EPRDF to the core - another fact that seems to have been conveniently omitted by newfound supporters.

As for the proof of UAE support, I raised it because we constantly hear about TPLFs supposed material backing from enemies of Ethiopia ( including the Gulf Arabs). I find it incredible the same people constantly talking about a foreign plot make no note of clandestine foreign backing the Government is receiving here. If there were airplane tracking records of hundreds of flights between the UAE and Mekelle, do you think it would go unremarked?

 

[thatrapsfan]

Pro-government? You're being ridiculous. The first video is literally from the same source (Channel 4) you referenced in your previous post lol. The second source is coming straight out of the mouths of the drivers.

What could you possibly think their rationale is for these arrests if you don't believe anything nefarious happened in Dessie or with the aid/trucks?

Is your argument that because some Tigrayans collaborated/supported the insurgency in one town, that massive and indiscriminate arrests focused on ethnicity alone are justified?

The rationale is immaterial when determining whether it’s a just course of action. Or even strategically beneficial for the Government and it’s supporters to operate in such a manner, if the goal is to weaken support for the insurgency.

 

[dtownreppin214]

No debate the TPLF misruled the country and that it was both corrupt and extremely authoritarian. But I don’t see how that provided cover or a rationale for current Governments actions. Abiy frames himself as a clean break from that legacy. Never mind the fact that he is very much a creature of EPRDF to the core - another fact that seems to have been conveniently omitted by newfound supporters.

As for the proof of UAE support, I raised it because we constantly hear about TPLFs supposed material backing from enemies of Ethiopia ( including the Gulf Arabs). I find it incredible the same people constantly talking about a foreign plot make no note of clandestine foreign backing the Government is receiving here. If there were airplane tracking records of hundreds of flights between the UAE and Mekelle, do you think it would go unremarked?

Breh TPLF is a designated terrorist organization in Ethiopia. Why do you keep putting them on an equal footing as the duly elected Ethiopian government?

Yes, it is highly problematic that a deemed terrorist organization that is currently rampaging through the country to overthrow the gov't is getting clandestine military/political support from Ethiopia's UN partners/allies. That's not in the same stratosphere as the democratically elected gov't purchasing arms from UAE/Turkey to combat these terrorists. Also, please let's not forget how this war started.

 

[dtownreppin214]

Is your argument that because some Tigrayans collaborated/supported the insurgency in one town, that massive and indiscriminate arrests focused on ethnicity alone are justified?

The rationale is immaterial when determining whether it’s a just course of action. Or even strategically beneficial for the Government and it’s supporters to operate in such a manner, if the goal is to weaken support for the insurgency.

The minister of defense is Tigrayan. As are many in Abiy's cabinet. As are many of the top brass in the military. As is the CEO of Ethiopian Airlines. Tigrayans are still in positions of power in the country and many of them are even overseeing elements of the emergency order. If Abiy really wanted to ethnically cleanse these people he would have never have pulled ENDF out of Mekelle in the summer. It wasn't until the strategic towns Dessie/Kombolcha fell, details of those military defeats came out, and the coup rhetoric intensified that the gov't realized shyt was getting real and the emergency security measures were put in place. I don't like innocent people getting caught up in this, but compared to the alternative this is light. Addis falling is the worst possible outcome that has to be avoided at all costs. It will lead to years of civil war and exponentially more bloodshed than what we've seen so far.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Breh TPLF is a designated terrorist organization in Ethiopia. Why do you keep putting them on an equal footing as the duly elected Ethiopian government?

Yes, it is highly problematic that a deemed terrorist organization that is currently rampaging through the country to overthrow the gov't is getting clandestine military/political support from Ethiopia's UN partners/allies. That's not in the same stratosphere as the democratically elected gov't purchasing arms from UAE/Turkey to combat these terrorists. Also, please let's not forget how this war started.

You’re skirting around the point, which is that ET Government supporters ( and Eritrean Government supporters as well for that matter) paint a massive foreign plot to unseat Abiy, while the most concrete proof of foreign logistical backing is on the Government side. Where is the equivalent of these logistical flights to Tigray? It’s not a coincidence you cannot point to any. Both Governments are clearly aware of what this Gulf backing does to their narrative, seeing how neither publicly acknowledges it. A running theme with Gulf relations between Abiy/Afwerki. Did Eritrean Government supporters say a peep when Assab was being used as a rear base for Yemen war operations by the UAE?

As for the terror designation, the list of designated terrorist organizations in history of Ethiopian Government in last three decades is as long as bible scrolls. Given that any credence is laughable. It’s also another thing that that this Government inherited from the TPLF, who listed every rebel group as terrorist as well.

 

[thatrapsfan]

The minister of defense is Tigrayan. As are many in Abiy's cabinet. As are many of the top brass in the military. As is the CEO of Ethiopian Airlines. Tigrayans are still in positions of power in the country and many of them are even overseeing elements of the emergency order. If Abiy really wanted to ethnically cleanse these people he would have never have pulled ENDF out of Mekelle in the summer. It wasn't until the strategic towns Dessie/Kombolcha fell, details of those military defeats came out, and the coup rhetoric intensified that the gov't realized shyt was getting real and the emergency security measures were put in place. I don't like innocent people getting caught up in this, but compared to the alternative this is light. Addis falling is the worst possible outcome that has to be avoided at all costs. It will lead to years of civil war and exponentially more bloodshed than what we've seen so far.

The reports of round-ups preceded that battle, they took a different pitch after those losses. I think they project desperation from the Government and will backfire from their intended goal ( weaken TPLF support). I don’t think they’re trying to wipe out Tigrayans, but I do think they are placing the general population under a security dragnet which is just as harmful in a war situation. Combine this with proof that it is being done in concert with civilian “volunteers” and it doesn’t take much imagination to see this taking a turn for the worse, should conflict intensify.

Anyway we can agree to disagree on this, I think we both made our POVs clear

 

[get these nets]

Ethiopian American Diaspora Group: Message to U.S. Congress, U.S. State Department, and U.S. Secretary of Defense

Nov. 15, 2021

Today, following statements from two high-ranking U.S. foreign affairs and military leaders suggesting the possibility of U.S. military assets directly engaging in the conflict in Ethiopia's Northern Tigray regions, the Ethiopian American Civic Council (EACC) released the following statement from EACC Chairman and Co-Founder Deacon Yoseph Tafari.

"U.S. military force should not be engaged or deployed in the Tigray conflict in Ethiopia's Northern region."

"We have a clear message to the U.S. government: U.S. military force should not be engaged or deployed in the Tigray conflict in Ethiopia's Northern region.

"The Tigray conflict is an internal conflict that needs to be addressed only by the Ethiopian people and their democratically-elected government.

"On behalf of Ethiopian Americans, EACC urges the U.S. government to stop the escalation of the situation in Ethiopia. Recent statements suggesting direct intervention are reckless and misguided. Considering what occurred in the final days of the 20-year Afghanistan occupation, the EACC doubts that most Americans would even support such an action.

"Instead, EACC has been advocating to the U.S. government to create a balanced foreign policy towards Ethiopia by advancing Ethiopia's sovereignty, territorial integrity and a strong bilateral partnership. Without a balanced approach, Ethiopia will be compelled to forge closer ties to foreign powers that will not fringe upon its sovereignty. We believe the faint suggestion of military intervention in Ethiopia could lead into a never-ending geopolitical crisis that will have far reaching impact for the region and global security.

"The EACC recognizes the vital national security importance U.S.-Ethiopian military missions with joint efforts to deter terrorist cells in the Horn of Africa. To this end, it is important to note that the Ethiopian people have paid the ultimate price in defending the national security of the United States.

"Now more than ever the United States needs to reexamine its policy approach to further strengthen its 118-year relationship with a democratic Ethiopia to remain a stable leader in the Horn of Africa. These objectives can only come to fruition through bilateral engagement by advancing national respect and mutual interests."

--EACC Chairman and Co-Founder Deacon Yoseph R. Tafari

Ethiopian American Civic Council: Is one the largest Ethiopian American diaspora community in the United States with approximately 750,000 supporters in all 50 states. The EACC represents all of the nearly 90 Ethiopian ethnic groups. The EACC is a US-based, 501(c) 4, nonprofit organization

 

[Broke Wave]

The TPLF killed more Somali's than Siyad Barre killed in Hargeisa during the 1988 genocide. Fun fact.