The West Should Just Stop Intervening
2014 JUNE 12
tags:
Iraq,
ISIS
by Ian Welsh
Half a Million Flee Mosul according to estimates. Reading through, there is some fear of ISIS and there is some fear of the fighting in general: which is wise, because the government’s only likely response is to either call out other militias (who can actually fight, unlike the army) or to use air power. Indiscriminate bombing, as in Fallujah, isn’t good for civilians. A lot of people fled because they saw others fleeing. But the lesson of Syria (and pretty much every other war) is this: you don’t want to be caught in a disputed city.
However, many others have been happy to see ISIS conquer Mosul, and are rallying to it.
The bottom line here is that the Iraqi army collapsed: it did not fight.
Some people want the US to go back in. That is a mistake. The Iraqi government was never likely to survive on its own, as constituted, any more than the Afghan government will survive the American pullout. The Iraqi government was artificial, without an actual power based which believed in it enough to fight for it. The same is true, again, in Afghanistan.
You can only keep such tools in power by main, external, force. If you go back into Iraq, you can’t leave because America is incapable of setting up a government which will be able to maintain control: people will not fight and die for the sort of deeply corrupt thugs that America today always puts in charge.
ISIS is a deeply problematic organization, as is the Taliban, but here’s what they have going for them: they believe and they’re willing to fight and die.
The situation in Iraq will be determined on the ground, by those people willing fight and die: the Kurds, ISIS, various non ISIS aligned Sunni militias, and the Shia militias. It will be determined by Iran, who is the only country which could intervene and maintain the peace otherwise.
If the US chooses not to accept this, not to allow this to play out, it will be stuck in Iraq for another ten years, and during that time Iraq will stay destabilized and more and more people will die
There are no good options here, but whatever solution is come to, it must be determined by people who have a real stake in the area, who are willing to fight and die for their beliefs. Only they can impose a peace. There’s a very good chance that it will be a very ugly peace, much like the Taliban imposed in Afghanistan.
So be it. I don’t like it, but there are NO other solutions which are better. American intervention again is not a better option.
If you want to support someone on the ground, support to the Shi-ite militias. They and the Peshmergas, are the ones who will defeat ISIS, if ISIS is defeated. Forget the government, it’s failed. It failed on day one, because it could never keep the peace because no one believed in it.
And stop aiding the insurgents in Syria. Again, this is a cost of the Syrian intervention. ISIS is LOSING to the Syrian forces and Hezbollah and has, in part, been pushed into Iraq.
The West must stop intervening in other parts of the world. Getting rid of Qaddafi destabilized not just Libya, but two others. Attacking Afghanistan has destabilized Pakistan. The. Stop. It. The West doesn’t know how to do it successfully. It always makes things worse. Don’t intervene militarily and stop intervening covertly, as in Ukraine.
Just stop.
for the ideological classes, or they will not adopt it.
This, then, is the book I’m trying to write.
