Everyone is talking like the Cavs have momentum now that they've won 2 straight. But I don't see it that way.
* People are talking like Golden State isn't still historically one of the greatest home teams in history. This isn't just because they went 39-2 at home in the regular season. For all the L's they've taken in the playoffs (4-6 on the road), they're still 11-2 at home in the playoffs, and one of those losses was without Draymond. The other was a Game 1 against OKC. And only ONE of their wins was by fewer than 8 points.
3-0 at home against Houston by a combined 79 points.
3-0 at home against Portland by a combined 27 points (with Curry hurt much of that)
3-1 at home against OKC, ending with three straight home wins by a combined 44 points
2-1 at home against Cleveland, winning the two games with Green by a combined 48 points
They are DOMINANT at home.
* Lebron has put up two enormous games in a row. 82 points, 24 boards, 18 assists, with 7 steals and 6 blocks over the last two games, taking 57 shots. That's a huge effort that takes a toll. At this age and with this wear, I don't see him doing that a third straight time. Last year I kept saying that he was going to fall off because he couldn't do this every game, and it happened by Game 4. He isn't carrying the same weight that he was last year, but the weight is still huge, and now we're expecting him to do it up to Game 7 and do it efficiently? Possible, but I don't think it's likely.
* Cleveland's bench is just awful on the road. 10 points in Game 1. 12 points in Game 5. They only scored a decent amount in Game 2 because the game was over early and the bench played the whole 4th quarter. JR is awful on the road too: 6-18 in the three road games so far in this series. All year long Cleveland was suspect on the road, and they basically relied on Lebron and sometimes Kyrie to get whatever road wins they could. For Cleveland to win Game 7, they're almost certainly going to have to have Lebron and Kyrie both dominate again, and I don't see Lebron holding up his end because of the wear.
* Golden State isn't very good when all the expectations are on them. They struggled last year against Cleveland until they got behind, they struggled against OKC until they were way behind, and they've struggled against the Cavs when they had a big lead (their worst games were after they went up 2-0, 3-1, and 3-2).
But nearly everyone plays better when expectations are lower. For the first time all series, people are suddenly saying that Cleveland is the better team, that Cleveland should be expected to win. Golden State is being dismissed again. They thrived on that during the regular season (it was like the whole season was a response to the idea that last year's championship was a fluke they didn't deserve), and they're going to thrive on it in Game 7. I'm not sure how the Cavs will play with the sudden expectations that they could win - they might play better or they might play worse. But I'm almost certain that GS will play better now that they're being looked down on.
* Golden State is really pissed. I think they're going to come out with fire.
I predicted GS in 7 before the series started. No way in hell I thought it would go down the way it has. But unless JR or someone else on the Cavs comes out with super fire (like Miller in 2012 or Battier in 2013), then it's going to take a Herculean effort from Kryie/Lebron to overcome what Golden State is going to bring. And even a Herculean effort from those two might not be enough if they've already spent too much to this point and/or Curry/Thompson/Green and the rest really bring what they're capable of.
After Game 5, I thought that Cleveland had a chance to take the series. But that was only IF the bench stepped up and played their asses off in Game 6, taking some of the load off Lebron and proving they could contribute, leaving Lebron to lead the way in Game 7. That didn't really happen - Lebron still had to carry the load and JR/Love/bench didn't show that they have what it takes to go into a hostile environment the next game and play better than they have all series.
Golden State 111, Cleveland 99.
