Falling Illegal Immigration Numbers Confirm No Border Crisis
Dude works for the CATO Institute, so he's not an "open borders"-type. :stephena1:
Nap :bpumad:
Falling Illegal Immigration Numbers Confirm No Border Crisis
Donald Trump stands with Border Patrol agents and others after his visit to a U.S. Border Patrol station in McAllen, Texas, on January 10, 2019. (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images) GETTY
If America is facing a crisis at the border, then why is the unauthorized immigrant population declining? That is the question raised by a new study from the Center for Migration Studies of New York and other recent data.
For the past several months, including in a January 8, 2019, televised address, Donald Trump has argued America faces an illegal immigration crisis. Administration officials have supported this viewpoint in speeches around the country, including in several high-profile events at the border.
The data do not support a picture of an increasing number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States. “While the president has focused the nation’s attention on the border wall, half a million U.S. undocumented residents from Mexico left the undocumented population in 2016 alone, more than three times the number that arrived that year, leading to an overall decrease of nearly 400,000 undocumented residents from Mexico from 2016 to 2017,” according to new research from Robert Warren, a demographer and senior visiting fellow at the Center for Migration Studies. (Emphasis added.)
Table 1: Undocumented Population in the U.S.: 2010 to 2017
2010 2017
11.7 million 10.7 million
Source: Center for Migration Studies.
The original public argument Donald Trump put forward for building a wall along the border was concern about large-scale illegal migration from Mexico. However, Warren notes in his report, “From 2010 to 2017, the undocumented population from Mexico fell by a remarkable 1.3 million.”
Demographic changes and improved economic conditions in Mexico have resulted in far fewer Mexicans staying in or coming to the United States illegally. In an important development rarely mentioned in the current policy debate, illegal entry by individuals from Mexico has fallen by more than 90% since FY 2000, according to Border Patrol apprehensions data.
“The total undocumented population declined by about 1 million from 2010 to 2017,” notes the Center for Migration Studies report. In a conclusion that may surprise those used to hearing about immigration as a border issue, Robert Warren adds, “Arriving by air and overstaying temporary visas has been the primary way of entering the U.S. undocumented population over the entire seven-year period covered by this report.” (Warren has warned in other research not to exaggerate the overstay problem.)
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has documented the trend of falling numbers as well. “In FY 2017, CBP [Customs and Border Protection] recorded the lowest level of illegal cross-border migration on record, as measured by apprehensions along the border and inadmissible encounters at U.S. ports of entry,” according to a DHS report released in December 2017. Border Patrol apprehensions along the Southwest border in FY 2018 were the 5th lowest level of illegal entryrecorded in the past 46 years.
As noted here, the number of apprehensions and people deemed inadmissible at ports of entry the first three months of FY 2019 was actually lower than during those same three months in FY 2017. That was the year DHS referred to as “the lowest level of illegal cross-border migration on record.”) (See here and here for data.) The first three months of FY 2019 did see a higher number of apprehensions and inadmissible encounters at ports of entry than during the first three months of FY 2018.
The data indicate America does not have a border crisis but a specific problem with how best to deal with families from Honduras and Guatemala who are coming to the United States for safety, economic opportunity or both.
The first step is to reestablish the Central American Minors (CAM)program. The Trump administration ended the program but it allowed people to apply for refugee protection while in their home countries – exactly the option to make available if one wants to discourage long treks from Central America to the U.S.-Mexico border. “The CAM program was established in 2014 to provide certain minors in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras the opportunity to be considered, while still in their home country, for refugee resettlement in the United States,” according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
The next step should be to provide more ways for individuals to work legally on temporary visas, whether through a new law or bilateral agreements. That would eliminate the need for would-be workers to use smugglers. In short, rather than criticize the use of smugglers in speeches, it would be better to give potential workers viable options in place of the smugglers.
Finally, we should recognize that many people are scared to live in their home countries, primarily due to gang violence directed against individuals and their families. The United States should assist those countries to improve security conditions, while also providing opportunities for people to apply for asylum through lawful ports of entry. The U.S. government can use alternatives to detention to make sure people show for their hearings.
The decline in the unauthorized immigrant population illustrates there is not a crisis at the border. Targeted policies can solve the problems that do exist along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Donald Trump stands with Border Patrol agents and others after his visit to a U.S. Border Patrol station in McAllen, Texas, on January 10, 2019. (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images) GETTY
If America is facing a crisis at the border, then why is the unauthorized immigrant population declining? That is the question raised by a new study from the Center for Migration Studies of New York and other recent data.
For the past several months, including in a January 8, 2019, televised address, Donald Trump has argued America faces an illegal immigration crisis. Administration officials have supported this viewpoint in speeches around the country, including in several high-profile events at the border.
The data do not support a picture of an increasing number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States. “While the president has focused the nation’s attention on the border wall, half a million U.S. undocumented residents from Mexico left the undocumented population in 2016 alone, more than three times the number that arrived that year, leading to an overall decrease of nearly 400,000 undocumented residents from Mexico from 2016 to 2017,” according to new research from Robert Warren, a demographer and senior visiting fellow at the Center for Migration Studies. (Emphasis added.)
Table 1: Undocumented Population in the U.S.: 2010 to 2017
2010 2017
11.7 million 10.7 million
Source: Center for Migration Studies.
The original public argument Donald Trump put forward for building a wall along the border was concern about large-scale illegal migration from Mexico. However, Warren notes in his report, “From 2010 to 2017, the undocumented population from Mexico fell by a remarkable 1.3 million.”
Demographic changes and improved economic conditions in Mexico have resulted in far fewer Mexicans staying in or coming to the United States illegally. In an important development rarely mentioned in the current policy debate, illegal entry by individuals from Mexico has fallen by more than 90% since FY 2000, according to Border Patrol apprehensions data.
“The total undocumented population declined by about 1 million from 2010 to 2017,” notes the Center for Migration Studies report. In a conclusion that may surprise those used to hearing about immigration as a border issue, Robert Warren adds, “Arriving by air and overstaying temporary visas has been the primary way of entering the U.S. undocumented population over the entire seven-year period covered by this report.” (Warren has warned in other research not to exaggerate the overstay problem.)
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has documented the trend of falling numbers as well. “In FY 2017, CBP [Customs and Border Protection] recorded the lowest level of illegal cross-border migration on record, as measured by apprehensions along the border and inadmissible encounters at U.S. ports of entry,” according to a DHS report released in December 2017. Border Patrol apprehensions along the Southwest border in FY 2018 were the 5th lowest level of illegal entryrecorded in the past 46 years.
As noted here, the number of apprehensions and people deemed inadmissible at ports of entry the first three months of FY 2019 was actually lower than during those same three months in FY 2017. That was the year DHS referred to as “the lowest level of illegal cross-border migration on record.”) (See here and here for data.) The first three months of FY 2019 did see a higher number of apprehensions and inadmissible encounters at ports of entry than during the first three months of FY 2018.
The data indicate America does not have a border crisis but a specific problem with how best to deal with families from Honduras and Guatemala who are coming to the United States for safety, economic opportunity or both.
The first step is to reestablish the Central American Minors (CAM)program. The Trump administration ended the program but it allowed people to apply for refugee protection while in their home countries – exactly the option to make available if one wants to discourage long treks from Central America to the U.S.-Mexico border. “The CAM program was established in 2014 to provide certain minors in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras the opportunity to be considered, while still in their home country, for refugee resettlement in the United States,” according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
The next step should be to provide more ways for individuals to work legally on temporary visas, whether through a new law or bilateral agreements. That would eliminate the need for would-be workers to use smugglers. In short, rather than criticize the use of smugglers in speeches, it would be better to give potential workers viable options in place of the smugglers.
Finally, we should recognize that many people are scared to live in their home countries, primarily due to gang violence directed against individuals and their families. The United States should assist those countries to improve security conditions, while also providing opportunities for people to apply for asylum through lawful ports of entry. The U.S. government can use alternatives to detention to make sure people show for their hearings.
The decline in the unauthorized immigrant population illustrates there is not a crisis at the border. Targeted policies can solve the problems that do exist along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Dude works for the CATO Institute, so he's not an "open borders"-type. :stephena1:
Nap :bpumad:
