for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

Tide Run This

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This FAU vs FIU game gonna fukk me over I need FAU -7 but this shyt in a weather delay. Thinking of going Zona +23 I agree with Reinscarf I think this has backdoor cover written all over it.
 

YaBishh

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Gilles Simon over Steve Johnson -165 - 330/200

Johnson has been playing very nice stuff, but Simon is simply too good defensively to let Johnson boss him around. Let's see what happens when Simon pushes to Johnson's weak backhand, as well as makes him hit extra shots, likely to lose confidence.
whens this game start?
 

yoyoyo1

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whens this game start?
started like 5 mins after I posted it

Gilles Simon over Steve Johnson -165 - 330/200

Johnson has been playing very nice stuff, but Simon is simply too good defensively to let Johnson boss him around. Let's see what happens when Simon pushes to Johnson's weak backhand, as well as makes him hit extra shots, likely to lose confidence.
7-6 6-1 :hula:

very interesting match, when Simon spammed the Johnson BH, it was Johnson just hitting junk and Simon imploding, to the point of very very very uncharacteristic screaming from one of the calmest guys on tour.. still won the TB and ran away with 2nd set
 

YaBishh

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started like 5 mins after I posted it


7-6 6-1 :hula:

very interesting match, when Simon spammed the Johnson BH, it was Johnson just hitting junk and Simon imploding, to the point of very very very uncharacteristic screaming from one of the calmest guys on tour.. still won the TB and ran away with 2nd set
this is where my vikings money should have went:mjcry:
 

yoyoyo1

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late night tennis:

Have a feeling Chardy at +300 will cause problems for Nishikori... Nishikori labored to a win over Young, and pulled out of doubles due to fatigue. Depends on what Chardy has got, and if Nishikori gets through this week he's certainly ripe for an upset in Beijing. Not putting any money on it, but good for desperation play. Maybe Chardy +4.

Raonic at -770 and -3.5 games is unbettable.. Raonic, like Isner, is one of those guys who if having a even a slightly off-night he'll easily just coast on serve and get it done in TB. Impossible to predict game betting, and they usually pull the match out.

Sock vs Becker... resurgence of the Americans. Young and Johnson and Querrey are top 50, Sock is knocking on the door. Not perfect, but better than before. I like Sock in this one but not at -160.. I played Simon -165 which was way better value. Maybe would play at -130 or -140 but I'd have regrets at -160 if played anything but small. Sock will probably get it done anyway.

Beijing:

Djokovic -450 over Dimitrov.. not much to say. Still don't have confidence in Dimitrov in these spots, and I hate betting Novak in game spreads due to his tendency of liking the big occasion and playing around too much. Djokovic win and -4 (very small)

Cilic vs Murray, love Murray in this one. He's fighting for the top 8 to get into London and he's been fighting a LOT every match. Everyone liked Wawa after he won AUS but he kept on being regular inconsistent Stan after that.. I see the same for Cilic. Great if he plays like he played at USO always, but doubt it. And let's remember if only took peak Joker for Muzza to lose at the USO. Murray does NOT get blasted off the court so easily, and I prefer Muzza in rallies. Murray -125 (medium)

Isner vs Berydch - Isner always owned by Birdman, I don't see things being different here. Love to bet Isner in these spots as the underdog, but he's been off. Barely BARELY won agaisnt Robredo, and Berdych has had no problem dispatching Lopez and Troicki. Berdych can be off at times, but Isner isn't exactly going to give him trouble during rallies, AND Berdych can hold his own on serve too.

Nadal vs Klizan - Nadal should win, he's been playing great. Klizan is one of my favorites to bet on the men's side, same as Dellacqua for the women. Can pull surprises, usually is underrated, and he's playing peak tennis. Blew Gulbis out last match. Very small stakes on Klizan +5.5

Beijing (Women)

Serena, Kvitova, Sharapova. Serena +100 to win it all is not a very good price. Stosur could cause Serena problems, she usually plays her very tough. Sharapova owns Kuzzy, and peak Kvitova and beat anyone. Not worth playing at these odds for all three matches.

boUqSwK.jpg


and just added another 125/100 for Murray because fukk it. I think the odds and everyone is overrating Cilic and underrating Muzza here.
 
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YaBishh

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fukk this night im done. Only doing nba and NFL games from now on. fukk CFB until bowl games and fukk Ponder
 

yoyoyo1

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late night tennis:

Have a feeling Chardy at +300 will cause problems for Nishikori... Nishikori labored to a win over Young, and pulled out of doubles due to fatigue. Depends on what Chardy has got, and if Nishikori gets through this week he's certainly ripe for an upset in Beijing. Not putting any money on it, but good for desperation play. Maybe Chardy +4.

Raonic at -770 and -3.5 games is unbettable.. Raonic, like Isner, is one of those guys who if having a even a slightly off-night he'll easily just coast on serve and get it done in TB. Impossible to predict game betting, and they usually pull the match out.

Sock vs Becker... resurgence of the Americans. Young and Johnson and Querrey are top 50, Sock is knocking on the door. Not perfect, but better than before. I like Sock in this one but not at -160.. I played Simon -165 which was way better value. Maybe would play at -130 or -140 but I'd have regrets at -160 if played anything but small. Sock will probably get it done anyway.

Beijing:

Djokovic -450 over Dimitrov.. not much to say. Still don't have confidence in Dimitrov in these spots, and I hate betting Novak in game spreads due to his tendency of liking the big occasion and playing around too much. Djokovic win and -4 (very small)

Cilic vs Murray, love Murray in this one. He's fighting for the top 8 to get into London and he's been fighting a LOT every match. Everyone liked Wawa after he won AUS but he kept on being regular inconsistent Stan after that.. I see the same for Cilic. Great if he plays like he played at USO always, but doubt it. And let's remember if only took peak Joker for Muzza to lose at the USO. Murray does NOT get blasted off the court so easily, and I prefer Muzza in rallies. Murray -125 (medium)

Isner vs Berydch - Isner always owned by Birdman, I don't see things being different here. Love to bet Isner in these spots as the underdog, but he's been off. Barely BARELY won agaisnt Robredo, and Berdych has had no problem dispatching Lopez and Troicki. Berdych can be off at times, but Isner isn't exactly going to give him trouble during rallies, AND Berdych can hold his own on serve too.

Nadal vs Klizan - Nadal should win, he's been playing great. Klizan is one of my favorites to bet on the men's side, same as Dellacqua for the women. Can pull surprises, usually is underrated, and he's playing peak tennis. Blew Gulbis out last match. Very small stakes on Klizan +5.5

Beijing (Women)

Serena, Kvitova, Sharapova. Serena +100 to win it all is not a very good price. Stosur could cause Serena problems, she usually plays her very tough. Sharapova owns Kuzzy, and peak Kvitova and beat anyone. Not worth playing at these odds for all three matches.

boUqSwK.jpg


and just added another 125/100 for Murray because fukk it. I think the odds and everyone is overrating Cilic and underrating Muzza here.

:bryan: Klizan beat Nadal, but as I always say I don't randomly 'take shots', might hurt me now but what about the other 6 I'd lose before hitting this one?

Women's matches hit simple enough, Stosur pulled out against Serena. Niskikori handled Chardy easily, fair enough.. IMO this is his tournament to lose and always has been since Wawrinka lost. Djokovic routines Dimitrov. Sock loses in 3 to Becker, worst case scenario there. Most importantly, Murray handled Cilic easily like I thought he would, didn't expect it to be that easy.
 
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