for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

[YaBishh]

On the high tonight for 44 1/2

also going with chicago 1h +1

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

I think the Jets win tonight


and then the Bears Beat Green Bay next week outright.

 

[USSInsiders]

Jets moneyline

 

[MikelArteta]

I think the Jets win tonight


and then the Bears Beat Green Bay next week outright.

i agree jets d is to good
and bears d cant stop anything

 

[Dak Pickscott]

man gotta put a limit on your account
i just have a 200 dollar weekly limit on my bet 365 even whe i want to i cant go high

I will implement this into my betting strategy before my next bet

im already exercising some restraint...didnt bet nfl at all yesterday and glad i didn't would have lost in the noon games, was leaning towards BUF. all the money in the world on Chicago right now but I just don't see value in the Jets here..even if they cover I won't be mad because there will be better bets to be made

 

[MikelArteta]

i feel like putting 1000 on the jets ml

 

[USSInsiders]

What a stupid fukking pass. Jesus christ

 

[DirtyRed]

How the fukk you give up a 2 run two out double to Jeter?

 

[USSInsiders]

Yeah, i'm hedging if it's even possible at half time. This team is just cursed

 

[MikelArteta]

lucky i didnt bet

 

[yoyoyo1]

im using my actual debit card

I done lost my whole paycheck from sept 15th fukkin with 5dimes

been there

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

Betting on games like this are extremely frustrating.

The Jets are literally dominating this game on both sides of the ball......350 total yards to 260....5.6 yards per play to 4.3


Rushing 108 to 63 (4.3 to 3.5)

Basically a pick 6, a muffed punt and a redzone turnover was the difference in the game. Then you have that bad Pass Interference penalty and the ref blowing the whistle on that fumble return,,

This is why the NFL is so tough to beat...

For the most part it feels as tho turnovers play such a huge role in who wins the game but since they're random it's very difficult.




Taken form another board....

Yup, not surprising given the numbers I show for 1000+ games back to 2003:

Net turnover margin, SU win pct., Margin of victory
+1 69% 6 points
+2 83% 10 points
+3 91% 13 points
+4 97% 17 points

23-5 = 82% win percent. I show above just a +1 net turnover margin = 69% win rate. Assuming the 28 games of the 23-5 mentioned average out to +2 net turnover margin, the 82% falls in line with the 83% win rate for +2 turnover margin going back to 2003.

I guess I would also say that if turnovers were predictable, or easy to predict, we'd see more handicappers winning at 70+% rate since the ATS results are not far off from the SU results going back to 2003:

+1 turnover margin = 69% SU and 70% ATS
+2 " " = 83% SU and 82% ATS
+3 " " = 91% SU and 89% ATS
+ 4 " " = 97% SU and 95% ATS

Correctly predict turnover margin = world is your oyster.

 

["It Was Always Jerry"]

Betting on games like this are extremely frustrating.

The Jets are literally dominating this game on both sides of the ball......350 total yards to 260....5.6 yards per play to 4.3


Rushing 108 to 63 (4.3 to 3.5)

Basically a pick 6, a muffed punt and a redzone turnover was the difference in the game. Then you have that bad Pass Interference penalty and the ref blowing the whistle on that fumble return,,

This is why the NFL is so tough to beat...

For the most part it feels as tho turnovers play such a huge role in who wins the game but since they're random it's very difficult.




Taken form another board....

Even if the Jets lose, I still feel it was the right pick.

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

Even if the Jets lose, I still feel it was the right pick.

Yeah it definitely was the + EV side.....I'd take this pick 99 times out of 100.

 

[YaBishh]

Chicago +1 1h
and over 44 1/2 I think ill slow down on so many parlays and start single betting more