for the betters out here, the post your picks thread
- Thread starter NoMoreWhiteWoman2020
- Start date
<<TheStandard>>
I Am A God
I loved this Orioles team this year.....
If you bet $100 on everyone of the Orioles 151 games you'd be up +$3596. One of the most profitable bet in any major 4 sports...
If you bet $100 on everyone of the Orioles 151 games you'd be up +$3596. One of the most profitable bet in any major 4 sports...
USSInsiders
Banned
Don't like betting against Auburn either but idgaf, it's inflated number. If I die, I die
Tide Run This
Veteran
O's,Nats,Mets covered stupid Cardinals though 
Dak Pickscott
Shout out to Dallas my bih is a star
it fukks me up cuz u been saying the shyt for months now and I still never caught on
orioles were involved in nearly every RL bet i won... considering how well they hit.. id be willing to bet if u bet them on the RL you'd make even more money
Phillies, Indians, Pirates..... and Cubs.
All RL.... Im feeling it brehs we about to make a comeback woooo
All RL.... Im feeling it brehs we about to make a comeback woooo
Dak Pickscott
Shout out to Dallas my bih is a star
them hoe ass A's look like they was tryna fukk money off last night. I did them and the giants ML in parlay..shoulda just took SF
<<TheStandard>>
I Am A God
Against the Spread
88-63+2993
I don't have it separated by underdog or favorite tho...
They were big underdogs earlier this year
I got them at +180 ML vs Felix Hernandez and Stausberg
are u just calculating these stats yourself, or do you have a site for this?
Also how are your statistic based bets working thusfar?
<<TheStandard>>
I Am A God
I got the Baltimore orioles covers stats Via Covers.com but you can find them on a don best.com or many other sites. SBR forum as well
They've actually be working very well...Almost scary how on point it was if I followed every game. This is still the beginning using only a yards per point metric, I'm going through all my old statistics notes and gonna work on a logistic regression and least squares regression model. College was so long ago tho...I took these classes in 2005-2006 so I'm really learning everything all over again.
Here's week 2 and what teams I should have bet based on what my spreadsheet has.
Bold is Vegas favorite
Red is Away Team
Green is Home Team
I basically combined Yards per point for 2013 and 2014 and came up with my spread (R2da spread) (only the 2013 numbers are posted).....if it's in green the home team is favored, if red the away team is favored. The Difference between the Vegas line and my line says which team you should bet on...Home or away
So you see The Bills -Miami line is off by around 3 something points.....I bet the Bills.
The Redskins line was way off so I bet the Skins
It was on point for almost every game....except the vikings
Between using this, Massey ratings, ESPN pick center, reading and just watching every game I've been able to do pretty well.......It's just staying disciplined.
I'm really getting into this statistics shyt tho.......I really want to delve into NBA betting because that's where I can really make money with it being a long season. NFL is only 17 weeks and the playoffs. I'm not gonna really touch college sports anymore other than spot bets, it's just too much to follow for me. I think NFL, NBA, MLB is enough.
I got the Baltimore orioles covers stats Via Covers.com but you can find them on a don best.com or many other sites. SBR forum as well
They've actually be working very well...Almost scary how on point it was if I followed every game. This is still the beginning using only a yards per point metric, I'm going through all my old statistics notes and gonna work on a logistic regression and least squares regression model. College was so long ago tho...I took these classes in 2005-2006 so I'm really learning everything all over again.
Here's week 2 and what teams I should have bet based on what my spreadsheet has.
Bold is Vegas favorite
Red is Away Team
Green is Home Team
I basically combined Yards per point for 2013 and 2014 and came up with my spread (R2da spread) (only the 2013 numbers are posted).....if it's in green the home team is favored, if red the away team is favored. The Difference between the Vegas line and my line says which team you should bet on...Home or away
So you see The Bills -Miami line is off by around 3 something points.....I bet the Bills.
The Redskins line was way off so I bet the Skins
It was on point for almost every game....except the vikings
Between using this, Massey ratings, ESPN pick center, reading and just watching every game I've been able to do pretty well.......It's just staying disciplined.
I'm really getting into this statistics shyt tho.......I really want to delve into NBA betting because that's where I can really make money with it being a long season. NFL is only 17 weeks and the playoffs. I'm not gonna really touch college sports anymore other than spot bets, it's just too much to follow for me. I think NFL, NBA, MLB is enough.
Really interesting, yeah i havent ran a linear regression since first year of business lol... and i got a C- in that class...
I dont know about yards per point that's the only thing... I'm usually a fan of any advanced metric but it doesnt take into account things like turn overs where the team can get the ball on the 10 yard line and score... making their stat look alot better.
Also the changes in personel... like having a healthy fred jackson and CJ Spiller completely changes the dynamic of the bills.
All that being said these criticisms could even out over time, I think around week 5 once you have a larger sample size from this season you'll really be able to see its benefits...
In either case props to you for applying this.
<<TheStandard>>
I Am A God
Yards/point picks up the story where yards/play lets off; it gives an indication of a team’s red zone efficiency and to what degree it has benefited from good field position via turnovers or special teams play. When regressed together, the two metrics combine to be great predictor of a team’s points for and points allowed.
Tide Run This
Veteran
Taking a break till Saturday im tired of coming up one game short
signed up and put in 100 for fanduel even though I'm not a fantasy person, just for fun
makes me on the inside that they don't have this for soccer, i have no idea about baseball or football but if you're hardcore i'm sure it's a nice venture
makes me even more you can just easily deposit and withdraw with credit cards or paypal like that
how is hoping a random player has a nice day skill but choosing a team based on matchups luck (rhetorical)
makes me
on the inside that they don't have this for soccer, i have no idea about baseball or football but if you're hardcore i'm sure it's a nice venturemakes me even more
you can just easily deposit and withdraw with credit cards or paypal like thathow is hoping a random player has a nice day skill but choosing a team based on matchups luck (rhetorical)
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