I starting to go with a math based approach (these are based on yards per point) and honestly my numbers say Seattle wins this game....Obviously a lot of this is last year (and just the 3rd preseason game) so who knows how this works.......But here are the numbers I came up with. This is just a start to how eventually want to approach gambling.....creating my own numbers, lines and combining that with my subjective knowledge.
Here are my numbers
YPP Spread is just yards per point - YPP.
the Spread column is just (Yards Per Point AgainstTeam1 - Yards Per PointTeam1) - (Yards Per Point AgainstTeam2 - Yards Per PointTeam2)
I averaged those 2 together to get my average....then I have the differential between the Vegas spread.
Some of these are way off and there is no way I'd bet them. IE: The Eagles/Jags game being at only 46 points. I'm looking at more factors to put into my numbers.......and obviously you have combine subjective elements (like the fact that Revis now plays for New England and lots of their D coming back)
I'm kinda scared of totals until I see how the refs respond with these penalties. (Seahawks’ starting secondary played a total of 285 snaps during the preseason and had a grand total of zero penalties......but Tonight’s referee is John Parry. Parry’s crew threw the most defensive holding + PI flags of any officiating crew during the preseason.)
Here's something I read earlier....Green bay has a back up center tonight.
Eddie Lacy and the interior of this Packers OL (headlined by guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang) have a viable chance to get the ground game going here. The bigger concern becomes the center spot as veteran J.C. Tretter has been sidelined with a preseason knee injury just a week and a half ago. Rookie Corey Linsley looks to take his place.
For as good as these guards are, the center spot will be critical in how they deal with the interior of the Seattle line. G.B. has enough talent at tackle with Brian Bulaga now healthy and so any threat of the Seattle pass rush is lessened for me from that standpoint.
Linsley remains a massive question mark for Green Bay, but the Ohio State product has the physical tools to keep pace with the interior of Seattle’s line so long as Mike McCarthy doesn’t get overly exotic with blocking and play call schemes. Additionally, and while Linsley has played in venues such as “The Horseshoe” and the “The Big House," he has likely never experienced something like what the 12th man in Seattle's CenturyLink Field offers.
Seattle LB Bruce Irvin has made plenty of threats regarding Linsley and he thinks the Seattle defensive line is likely to dominate G.B. in that match-up. While Linsley can probably hold up physically and do fine in administering the run game, pre-snap objectives will be at the forefront of his duties.
Overall, if the G.B. offense can establish the run a bit with guys like Lacy and James Starks, they have a good chance to keep pace here. The bigger concern for the Pack in terms of winning the game outright will be whether or not they can defend Seattle and get their defense off the field.
Where is
@Absolut I wonder what he thinks about this game.....
was sweating that tiebreak, ended up even
