for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

[L&HH]

but why even put dallas money line on there if you just plan to hedge out of your position?

Let me break it down numbers wise.

That parlay would be $100 paying $797. Let's assume the early games cover so now the last leg is Dallas m/l. Put $50 on Eagles 1h -3 to win $35 or so.

Here's the scenarios for the above:

Cowboys go up BIG, then we have a great Eagles m/l to take +200 or so. Probably lay $200 on that to win $400. If Eagles comeback you win $400-$100 parlay - $50 eagles 1h for a gain of $250, decent return. Cowboys win you win $797-$200-$50= $547.

If its a tie at half Eagles m/l probably around -150. Put $200 on that to win $130. If Eagles win $130-$100-$50= -$20.


The plan is to try to guarantee money.

 

[L&HH]

I got the idea from the Pitt/Bowl Green game. The odds in that game were shifting like crazy. Pitt m/l was +200 to start then at some point you could have gotten BG +300. Then later on could have gotten Pitt +200

 

[Absolut]

but if you are concerned with guaranteeing a win, why throw a 4th leg on there period if you think the first 3 legs are going to get there. you are concerned enough with the 4th leg of the parlay you are going to try to hedge out at the first opportunity? you have a parlay paying roughly 8-1, but want to hedge out of that if dallas is -240 to win when you have them +230? if dallas gets to the point they are -240 they are >70% to win the game. why would you bother hedging out of that? just do the 3 teamer. unless its life changing money, you bet way too large in the first place and you want to back out, or the hedge itself is a positive expectation bet, a hedge is mathematically the worst thing you can do. you want to risk 25% of your potential win on the 8-1 parlay (which if the cowboys in game line is -240 you are a fairly strong favorite to hit) on a 30% (eagles +200) bet? thats terrible

 

[YaBishh]

oh shyt suns game was under, and kstate killed em

 

[USSInsiders]

Longshot pleaser in play for today and a micro, fun play on the cowboys +6.5

Not gonna waste any bigtime money on any of these games today

 

[L&HH]

but if you are concerned with guaranteeing a win, why throw a 4th leg on there period if you think the first 3 legs are going to get there. you are concerned enough with the 4th leg of the parlay you are going to try to hedge out at the first opportunity? you have a parlay paying roughly 8-1, but want to hedge out of that if dallas is -240 to win when you have them +230? if dallas gets to the point they are -240 they are >70% to win the game. why would you bother hedging out of that? just do the 3 teamer. unless its life changing money, you bet way too large in the first place and you want to back out, or the hedge itself is a positive expectation bet, a hedge is mathematically the worst thing you can do. you want to risk 25% of your potential win on the 8-1 parlay (which if the cowboys in game line is -240 you are a fairly strong favorite to hit) on a 30% (eagles +200) bet? thats terrible

I threw dallas on there because a 3-teamer of just mia/carolina/pitt only pays 1.58 odds. Putting Dallas on there pushes it to 7.4 (its gone down b/c Pitt is not -300 and not -270). Im not confident Dallas will win but I really love the odds they're getting, and I take some money.

 

[thatrapsfan]

@yoyoyo1 Chelsea ML?

 

[Silkk]

Betting big today

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

@Absolut Why did this Lions line move like 5.5 points? WTF is going on….

 

[L&HH]

@Absolut Why did this Lions line move like 5.5 points? WTF is going on….

must be some major money on the lions

 

[MikelArteta]

@Absolut Why did this Lions line move like 5.5 points? WTF is going on….

prob because peterson is out?

lions cost me to much money this year to even bet on them again

 

[yoyoyo1]

@yoyoyo1 Chelsea ML?

even down 1, I would

or get them 'not to lose' if the odds are good. 70-something mourinho home games cant be wrong


staying away and just enjoying it, personally

 

[L&HH]

So my homies just convinced me to play the Chargers +10000 to win the Super Bowl simply because the last couple years the Redskins have beaten the SB winner (Ravens, Giants, Packers) and the Chargers are the only team the Skins have beaten with a chance of even winning (they may not even make the playoffs).

 

[ryderldb]

Let's do this

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

maaaan this week is hard

ALot of team not playing for anything starters might be out.....