for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

[<<TheStandard>>]

The last few years, 1 Ravens-Steelers game has gone under, 1 has gone over.

I actually played the over today (1 ravens steelers game went well under earlier this year).

I'm a bit pissed off by the Ravens not covering but at the end of the day if they score TDs instead of field goals it goes WELL over and they cover.

I actually feel more jerked at how they continued to call Tds back for the steelers (and the steelers kept losing offensive players to injuries) They ran a lot of time off the clock, gave the ravens more momentum. I was hoping the Steelers converted that 2 and the Ravens go down and kick the field goal to win but shyt happens. Can't be mad at a 4-1 day and hitting a teaser. Would have loved that parlay tho.

I don't like to say things are rigged because it detracts away from finding a way to actually beat these books. Some games are gonna fall right near the number. That's a coincidence…..because most don't. It's evident, however the people setting the lines are some of the smartest in the world.

 

[Bernie Madoff]

I will never bet more than $5 on a football game again my life!!!!

 

[L&HH]

I will never bet more than $5 on a football game again my life!!!!

its just the nfl...college is where the money at

 

[USSInsiders]

Very early, I know, but I really like the Under 51 for tommorow's UCF- USF game

 

[USSInsiders]

I will never bet more than $5 on a football game again my life!!!!

This is gonna sound crazy, but you have to bet the NFL like you're trying to figure out what the script is gonna be. If I told you my angles for betting last week you'd call me a conspiracy theorist, but funny enough, I went like 3 or 4 and oh.

Not saying every game is fixed, but there is a lot of bizarre shyt that goes on

 

[Bernie Madoff]

its just the nfl...college is where the money at

You can bet as much as you want on the nfl/cfb at the sportsbooks.. Nba/ncaab they limit the bets. Think about it.

 

[Bernie Madoff]

This is gonna sound crazy, but you have to bet the NFL like you're trying to figure out what the script is gonna be. If I told you my angles for betting last week you'd call me a conspiracy theorist, but funny enough, I went like 3 or 4 and oh.

Not saying every game is fixed, but there is a lot of bizarre shyt that goes on

It's for chalk chasers.
fukk IT- bill o reily

 

[USSInsiders]

It's for chalk chasers.
fukk IT- bill o reily

Hop on this under 51 for the UCF game tommorow dun i know you love totals

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

This is gonna sound crazy, but you have to bet the NFL like you're trying to figure out what the script is gonna be. If I told you my angles for betting last week you'd call me a conspiracy theorist, but funny enough, I went like 3 or 4 and oh.

Not saying every game is fixed, but there is a lot of bizarre shyt that goes on

What you really need to beat most of these sports is some sort of math based model. Whether that's through Regression analysis, simulation, database handicapping. A strictly subjective approach can work but at this point it's an uphill battle to be honest.

I've honestly seen just about every NFL game since like 2009. I like the NFL so I don't mind taking the time to try to pick it apart but it's very tough, lines are sharp…..It's good to just take a few games and limit your action (and parlays)….but I know if I had some sort of a math based model and like 6 figures worth of quant data I'd probably be a millionaire. I'm actually considering meeting with some of my old Wharton professors to try to come up with something. Maybe check out this MIT analytics conference next year..

 

[Bernie Madoff]

Hop on this under 51 for the UCF game tommorow dun i know you love totals

I'm going to smoke this kush. And never bet on a football game again.

 

[USSInsiders]

What you really need to beat most of these sports is some sort of math based model. Whether that's through Regression analysis, simulation, database handicapping. A strictly subjective approach can work but at this point it's an uphill battle to be honest.

I've honestly seen just about every NFL game since like 2009. I like the NFL so I don't mind taking the time to try to pick it apart but it's very tough, lines are sharp…..It's good to just take a few games and limit your action (and parlays)….but I know if I had some sort of a math based model and like 6 figures worth of quant data I'd probably be a millionaire. I'm actually considering meeting with some of my old Wharton professors to try to come up with something. Maybe check out this MIT analytics conference next year..

It isn't always numbers though b. Everyone gets murked at some point analytic and instinct bettors alike. There's just certain things you can't cap. It's just about picking spots and getting numbers with value, and of course, being on the right side

that being said, masseyratings.com is worth looking at

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

It isn't always numbers though b. Everyone gets murked at some point analytic and instinct bettors alike. There's just certain things you can't cap. It's just about picking spots and getting numbers with value, and of course, being on the right side

that being said, masseyratings.com is worth looking at

Yeah that's part of the game man…….I've learned to deal with it if I'm going to play. You win some, lose some (I had the under 50.5 in the lions game, and the Ravens -2.5) I'm pretty sure over time, these lucky wins and bad beats balance out. Good looking on the masseyratings.com Gonna check that out.

 

[USSInsiders]

Yeah that's part of the game man…….I've learned to deal with it if I'm going to play. You win some, lose some (I had the under 50.5 in the lions game, and the Ravens -2.5) I'm pretty sure over time, these lucky wins and bad beats balance out. Good looking on the masseyratings.com Gonna check that out.

they do, the thing that kills you is the highs and lows. Man I wish I had a Sports almanac from 2050

 

[L&HH]

I might have to stop parlays all together...This shyt is a weekly occurence now, where ONE game fukks it up (its twice this week already). Its not even the fact that its one game its like it comes down to the last FINAL play of the game... When the refs kept calling those TDs back I was thinking this may finally be my break, then they leave the WR WIDE OPEN for the TD. There was not a single defender in the vincinity on a goal-line play?????/???/

 

[USSInsiders]

I might have to stop parlays all together...This shyt is a weekly occurence now, where ONE game fukks it up (its twice this week already). Its not even the fact that its one game its like it comes down to the last FINAL play of the game... When the refs kept calling those TDs back I was thinking this may finally be my break, then they leave the WR WIDE OPEN for the TD. There was not a single defender in the vincinity on a goal-line play?????/???/

Stop doing them youngin. I occasionally do them as hedge contingencies but you will lose them in the long run. Stick to straight plays and you'll be gucci