Pac-Floyd? Don't believe the hype
Originally Published: November 19, 2014
By Dan Rafael | ESPN.com
It's Manny Pacquiao fight week and that can mean only one thing -- Top Rank promoter Bob Arum wants to sell as many pay-per-views as possible.
And since Pacquiao is in a weak matchup with Chris Algieri on Saturday night (HBO PPV, 9 p.m. ET) in Macau, China, he has work to do. So Arum went back to the tried and true playbook -- he talked about a possible Pacquiao fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr., the one fight people actually do want to see very much, and have wanted to for years, to help drum up interest.
We've been down this rabbit hole too many times and drank too much Kool-Aid to believe it until we see it. But that hasn't stopped Arum from laying it on thick as though the fight is going to be next in order to raise hopes that it will happen, not to mention reminding folks to plunk down 70 bones to buy Saturday's fight.
So let's hear from Mr. Arum, whom I spoke to on Tuesday from Macau. I asked him why anyone should believe him this time that it's real, since he's been a boy who cried wolf for years?
"I don't give a sh-- about convincing anyone of anything, but there are talks, and I believe for the first time people are serious," he said. "I am under an agreement not to say anything about anything, but it's not a lot of bullsh--. The chances are greater now that it will happen than it's been in years, and I think the only impediment, a major impediment, is if Algieri upsets Pacquiao on Saturday. Serious people are involved."
One key to making the fight is getting CBS/Showtime, which has Mayweather under contract, to make a deal with Time Warner/HBO, which has Pacquiao under contract. There is a blueprint for a deal because the companies were in a similar situation when they made a fight between HBO's heavyweight champion Lennox Lewis and Showtime's Mike Tyson in 2002, which resulted in the highest-grossing fight in boxing history at the time.
I have no doubt the companies are capable of, and willing to, make a deal, and both want it because the pay-per-view numbers for both fighters are in free fall -- especially Mayweather's, whose totals for three of the first four fights of his six-fight Showtime deal have been major disappointments and by all accounts have lost money.
Arum said that Leslie Moonves, president and CEO of CBS (and a longtime Arum associate) and Richard Plepler (chairman and CEO of HBO) are among the executives directly involved in the supposed talks.
"They are involved," Arum said. "The next fight [for both boxers] would be a good possibility, and it would occur in the first six months of next year."
Fine, but the issue isn't so much the TV companies. It's getting Mayweather to make a deal that is realistic -- meaning Pacquiao's side should get nearly half of the revenue, something Mayweather just can't wrap his head around. There are also those who seriously question Mayweather's desire to face Pacquiao, not to mention he doesn't have to with two more fights guaranteed on his contract.
When I spoke to Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach on Tuesday, he wasn't buying what Arum was selling either about a Mayweather fight.
"I hope it's true, but I don't see it happening. I don't see it," Roach said. "It's been three to four years. It should have happened by now. What makes it different this time? If Manny looks good against Algieri, it will make Mayweather say no even more, so I just laugh at all this. Negotiating the money alone won't happen. They'll never agree on the split Mayweather wants. There's a lot of work to be done, and I don't think it's possible."
A high-ranking HBO official told me this week that the supposed talks were more Arum fantasy than reality.
Still, Arum insisted that they are making headway.
"These are not the caliber of people telling me stuff to massage me on something that isn't true," Arum said. "If I am told the other side is interested and involved and it comes from a source I can rely on, I can rely in it. I'm emboldened this time the fight will happen because I have been informed Floyd will also take the fight. But I don't want to say anything that f---- it up."
Informed by who?
There's also an old saying: "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." In the case of this fight, maybe it should be: "Fool me 25 times, shame on you. Fool me 50 times, shame on me," because it was just about a week ago when Arum totally contradicted himself by saying, "Floyd is reluctant to fight Manny Pacquiao, period. If people don't see that by now, they are never going to see it."
Year's ago Arum uttered his most famous quote to a reporter, and, for better or worse, it has stuck to him like glue: "Yesterday I was lying, but today I'm telling the truth."
So which is it? We'll take what's behind door No. 1.
http://espn.go.com/boxing/story/_/id/11903623/manny-pacquiao-floyd-maywwather-jr-2015-believe-hype