Toronto Raptors: 2014-15 Forecast
OVERVIEW
The Raptors are the latest franchise to benefit from the little-known NBA quick-fix plan called "trade
Rudy Gay." Just as Memphis did in 2012-13, the Raptors sent Gay packing and then vaulted up the standings. Toronto was just 7-12 when it traded Gay to Sacramento in a deal that brought back
Greivis Vasquez,
John Salmons,
Patrick Patterson and
Chuck Hayes. From there, Toronto was a different team, one that finished with a 48-34 record and the Atlantic Division crown.
As a result, the Raptors enter 2014-15 with confidence in their young core.
Kyle Lowry has emerged as a top-shelf point guard.
DeMar DeRozan is quickly becoming an elite scorer and has an All-Star appearance and a FIBA World Cup gold medal to his name.
Amir Johnson has matured into an excellent -- and underappreciated -- role player whose work is revered by the analytics community. And young center
Jonas Valanciunas could be better than all of them.
So, yes, there is legit hope in Toronto as the Raptors aim for back-to-back division titles. This year, they could keep the party going longer, as they have enough pieces to advance out of the first round for just the second time in franchise history.
2014-13 RECAP
The Rudy Gay move, in retrospect, appears to have been the catalyst that turned the Raptors' season around. But that is also a somewhat convenient narrative that takes credit away from the players who developed over the course of the season. Chief among them was Lowry, who actually isn't all that young anymore. Even though he is 28, he had only started more than 52 games once before the past season.
As a full-time starter for the Raptors, he turned out to be a revelation. Lowry averaged 17.9 points, 7.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. He ranked eighth in the league in win shares at 11.7 and 21st in
Real Plus-Minus at 4.25. A non-shooter for the first half of his pro career, Lowry nailed 2.4 3s per game at a 38 percent rate. He ended up forming one of the league's most dynamic backcourts with DeRozan, who earned his first All-Star berth and averaged 22.7 points per game. They fueled a surprisingly efficient offense, one that posted a 108.8 offensive rating, 10th in the NBA.
PELTON'S 2013-14 STATS
W-L: 48-34 (
Pythagorean W-L: 52-30)
Offensive Efficiency: 110.3 (9th)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (9th)
Pace Factor: 90.6 (23th)
Highest WARP: Kyle Lowry (14.4)
Up front, Johnson continued his emergence as a defensive anchor, held opponents to 48.1 percent shooting at the rim and ranked 16th in the NBA in Real-Plus Minus (4.61). He allowed Valanciunas, the 22-year-old center, to develop as an offensive player, knowing Johnson had his back on D. Valanciunas averaged 11.3 points per game and posted a 112 offensive rating but didn't demand the ball enough -- he ranked ninth on the team in half-court touches.
The Raptors ultimately didn't have the depth or experience to finish off the Nets in the playoffs and blew a 3-2 series lead before losing Game 7 at home after
Paul Pierce rejected Lowry at the buzzer. But Toronto's 14-win improvement was a major step forward for a franchise now well-positioned in the East.
OFFSEASON MOVES
GM Masai Ujiri didn't make any major deals this summer and preferred to work around the edges to support his core players. In fact, arguably Ujiri's biggest addition likely won't contribute for another year or two. First-round pick
Bruno Caboclo was the draft's mystery man, and Fran Fraschilla declared him "two years away from being two years away" during the draft telecast. But the 6-foot-9 forward impressed observers in summer league play, and with a 7-foot-7 wingspan and outstanding athleticism, he looks like a contributor down the road.
A more pressing concern was the need to upgrade the team's bench, which accounted for just 26.2 points per game game this past season, 28th in the NBA. The Raptors are counting on guard
Louis Williams, acquired in a trade with the Hawks, to help solve that problem. Williams wasn't his usual self the past season, his first back from ACL surgery, and he averaged just 10.4 points per game on 40 percent shooting.
Toronto could also get a boost from
James Johnson, who is in his second stint with the team. Johnson has been something of an enigma as a pro, mixing talent with an inconsistent approach. But he can be effective in spurts and averaged 3.2 blocks per 100 possessions with Memphis the past season. If the Raptors can harness his abilities, he can be an asset at small forward off the bench. The Raptors' other moves were all minor, which means Ujiri and coach Dwane Casey will count on the continued development of their young core to spur more improvement.
2014-15 OUTLOOK
The Raptors should win the Atlantic Division again, which says as much about the low level of competition they'll face as it does their roster. But this is a team with upside in addition to a winning track record.
Much of that optimism can be attributed to Valanciunas' potential. The Lithuanian center has the skills to be a breakout performer, particularly on offense. SCHOENE is actually conservative in estimating his performance and projects him to average 10.9 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. But no one in the league would be surprised if he scored at least 15 points per game, especially given his efficiency (career 54.0 field goal percentage and 77.3 free throw percentage) and anticipated spike in usage from the past season's 18.5 percent.
Feeding Valanciunas more in the post will take cooperation from Lowry and DeRozan. As productive as they were the past season, they also dominated the ball, and they have to understand that a productive Valanciunas inside will make their lives easier on the perimeter. The growth DeRozan has shown each year -- he posted a career-best 110 offensive rating in 2013-14 -- indicates he'll figure that out. The presence of Greivis Vasquez, an excellent distributor, off the bench should bode well for getting Valanciunas more touches.
Casey will have to figure out how to find Vasquez enough minutes because the addition of Williams as a shooter off the bench should limit the amount of time the backup point guard plays next to Lowry. One option could be to slide DeRozan up to the small forward spot more often, but the Raptors would prefer to see
Terrence Ross make strides in his third season, especially after he averaged 10.9 points per game and improved his 3-point shooting to 39.5 percent.
Even though SCHOENE projects the Raptors to sport the league's 10th-best offense, they could use another scorer up front. Patrick Patterson has emerged as a solid player off the bench, but though he has developed 3-point range, he is not an ideal stretch 4 and lacks defensive skills. They need a shot-blocker behind Valanciunas in the middle; Amir Johnson can't serve as a one-man interior defense for 40-plus minutes. But those are high-class problems compared to the ones facing the rest of the division, and they won't keep the Raptors from going back-to-back atop the Atlantic.
PELTON'S 2014-15 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 109.1 (10th)
Projected Defensive Rating: 108.3 (16th)
SCHOENE Projected Record: 42-40
Real Plus-Minus Projected Record: 47-35
ESPN Forecast: 47-35, 1st in Atlantic, 4th in Eastern Conference