Last week, Kevin Pelton looked at early front-runners in the West through the prism of point differential. Today we're going to do the same thing for the East, where the top of the standings look nothing like what we thought they would. OK, that's not exactly true. We thought there would be a runaway juggernaut in the East, and there is. We were just wrong about the team.
To reiterate what Pelton wrote: At this early juncture of the season, a team's point differential, when evaluated in the context of schedule factors, is a better indicator than won-loss record of what a team will do going forward. Wins and losses generate the buzz. Margin of victory generates the wisdom.
The teams I obliquely referred to in the first paragraph hooked up in a fairly remarkable game Saturday. The Toronto Raptors, the surprise early leader in the East, visited the Cleveland Cavaliers, who we pegged as heavy favorites in the conference just before the season. If you've been fixating on the trials and tribulations of LeBron & Co., you might have missed the great storm blowing north of the border. The Raptors are emerging as the lion of the East, with everyone else settling as kittens.
Strength of schedule?
The Raptors' plus-12.2 point differential is the best in the NBA. At 11-2, Toronto is on pace to win 69 games. The projected win total based on point differential is also 69. Nevertheless, while the Raptors' point differential is more than strong enough to support its East-leading record, it's not for real. It can't be, and it's not going out on a limb to state that. Even the most pie-eyed Raptors fan understands his team isn't going to win 69 games. Our fall forecast for 47 wins looks lean at this point, but even if we redid it this morning based on the results to date, Toronto's win projection probably wouldn't climb too far into the 50s.
Toronto's schedule has in part paved the way for the blazing start. The Raptors capped a seven-game homestand by rolling to a 52-point lead in point differential during a rout of Milwaukee on Friday. They've played nine of their first 13 at the Air Canada Centre, winning eight. Among those home wins, Toronto can count the Thunder, 76ers, Magic, Jazz and Bucks among its victims. Overall, based on the quality of the offenses and defenses the Raptors have faced, only the Knicks have enjoyed an easier schedule in the NBA. (Yes, New York fans, you read that right.)
All that being true, you simply can't dismiss the Raptors' performance because the sheer degree of their dominance won't let you. Consider this: In Basketball-Reference.com's schedule-adjusted standings, Toronto's margin of victory (MOV) is scaled back to plus-10.4. Which of course is still awesome. So awesome, in fact, that the Raptors' adjusted MOV is nine points better than second-place Washington in the East. Lions and kittens, people.
How real are the Raptors?
Watching Toronto go on a 24-2 second-half run in its win at Cleveland on Saturday was pretty convincing. The addition of explosive bench scorer Lou Williams has shored up a key roster shortcoming and helped give the Raptors a top-10 bench. On the downside, every rotation player on the roster has a winning percentage significantly exceeding his preseason projection, with two exceptions: Greivis Vasquez and Tyler Hansbrough. Some of the overachievers -- such as Jonas Valanciunas, Patrick Patterson and Terrence Ross -- are young players who might simply be getting better faster than we thought. But as a roster, Toronto is due to regress as the schedule toughens.
Toronto Raptors John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports The Raptors core of Lowry, Valanciunas and DeRozan has flourished this season. And then there's this cautionary tale: Last season's Indiana Pacers. The moral of that story is that championships are not won in November. Nevertheless, the chasm between Toronto and everyone else in the Eastern Conference can't be ignored.
As for the kittens, the differentials, adjusted and otherwise, tell a yawn-inducing story of utter mediocrity. Washington's plus-3.4 margin of victory translates to about 48 wins over a full season. After accounting for the Wizards' 25th-ranked schedule, that MOV gets knocked down to plus-1.4. And that's the second-best mark in the East. The Cavaliers have faced the league's sixth-toughest schedule, and the fifth-most difficult set of opposing offenses. So Cleveland owns the third-ranked adjusted MOV (plus-0.6). I imagine that's small consolation to a team that is reeling at the moment.
In the fourth spot, the injury-riddled Bulls have defensive issues. Not only is Chicago's No. 11 ranking in defensive efficiency mind-boggling for a Tom Thibodeau club, but just nine teams have faced a weaker set of offenses. The good news is that Chicago's 8-5 record has been achieved while playing just five of 13 at home. The disparity will grow this week as the Bulls continue their annual November pilgrimage forced upon them by the literal circus that invades the United Center. In December, Bulls fans can look forward to the home-road balance working itself out, and they also hope the roster will be healthier by that time.
The only East team other than Toronto, Washington and Chicago with a positive average point differential is Miami, and the Heat drop below break-even when the schedule is accounted for. In fact, of the remaining teams, all but Charlotte and Philadelphia have a worse MOV once the schedule is factored in, and the respective adjusted differentials of those teams remains in the red. It's an ugly portrait. Atlanta has the No. 10 offense, but it's achieved that rating against the worst set of defenses any team has played. The Bucks' terrific start on defense has come at the expense of the worst collective set of offenses. You could go on and on.
who we packaging?
